2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part III

Today is Part III of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
  UCLA Bruins vs Illinois Fighting Illini
• Belk Bowl
  Louisville Cardinals vs North Carolina State Wolfpack
• GoDaddy.com Bowl
  Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Northern Illinois Huskies
• New Era Pinstripe Bowl
  Iowa State Cyclones vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights
• MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
  Arizona State Sun Devils vs Boise State Broncos

Full previews after the jump ....

25. Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Saturday, December 31 at 7:30 PM

UCLA Bruins (6 - 7; 5 - 5 Pac-12)
vs
Illinois Fighting Illini (5 - 6; 2 - 6 Big Ten)

GUGS Score: 45.6

Eddie

UCLA Bruins
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.450	65	0.548	20	16.1	62	16.4	65	167.0	54

Illinois Fighting Illini
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.547	54	0.540	31	13.6	83	14.1	46	169.3	29

It's a little hard to get excited about a game between two teams with losing records against FBS with fired coaches. UCLA's problems stem from defensive consistency, where they rank 5th worst at 3.4 +/- 26.0 PPH. Luckily for the Bruins, the Illini are offensively inept, sporting a 17.9 +/- 8.6 PPH efficiency. If Illinois can get a few breaks offensively, this one can swing the other way. However, RBA expects UCLA to avoid being the first team to ever go 6-8 in a season, 28-24, with 58.4% probability.

Justin

UCLA Bruins
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.419	72	0.621	12	18.2	71	20.8	70	161.7	95

Illinois Fighting Illini
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.532	58	0.578	39	17.0	84	16.1	28	165.7	64

You can blame USC for this one. It wasn't too long ago that the Illini were amongst the ranks of the undefeated, although we were slightly skeptical. Illinois capped off their 5-0 start with an 0-6 finale, including a drubbing at the hands of Minnesota. The Illini aren't bad, per se, they just had an easy schedule at the start and a tough one at the end. Even back when they were 4-0 TFG foresaw a 7-4 season that should have happened (minus bad losses to Purdue and Minnesota). UCLA, on the other hand, were Oregon's punching bag in the first Pac-12 title game thanks to that other school in LA being on probation. Illinois has no offense but a respectable defense; UCLA has an average offense and a below-average defense. This game won't be an epic display of talent, but it should be relatively close. Illinois 30, UCLA 28 (61.3%); 163 plays.

UCLA Bruins Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	78	/  66	UCLA	34	at	63	/  67	Houston	38	170	25.5%	/  49.3%
2011/09/10	117	/ 107	SJSU	17	at	73	/  69	UCLA	27	154	91.3%	/  86.3%
2011/09/17	24	/  30	Texas	49	at	76	/  76	UCLA	20	154	27.5%	/  24.2%
2011/09/24	85	/  77	UCLA	27	at	55	/  82	Oregon St.	19	151	24.2%	/  40.7%
2011/10/01	76	/  75	UCLA	19	at	4	/   3	Stanford	45	152	4.7%	/   5.3%
2011/10/08	81	/  62	Washington St.	25	at	71	/  72	UCLA	28	157	64.6%	/  35.4%
2011/10/20	70	/  75	UCLA	12	at	55	/  48	Arizona	48	180	27.9%	/  23.9%
2011/10/29	53	/  55	California	14	at	76	/  79	UCLA	31	159	44.7%	/  41.2%
2011/11/05	21	/  12	Arizona St.	28	at	68	/  73	UCLA	29	171	23.6%	/  12.5%
2011/11/12	66	/  77	UCLA	6	at	32	/  35	Utah	31	148	28.8%	/  23.7%
2011/11/19	94	/  82	Colorado	6	at	73	/  66	UCLA	45	150	64.1%	/  57.6%
2011/11/26	64	/  63	UCLA	0	at	20	/  13	USC	50	151	22.6%	/  17.7%
2011/12/02	75	/  65	UCLA	31	at	7	/   3	Oregon	49	183	9.4%	/  10.2%
2011/12/31	58	/  54	Illinois	--	vs	72	/  65	UCLA	--	--	38.7%	/  58.4%

Illinois Fighting Illini Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	88	/  90	Arkansas St.	15	at	40	/  32	Illinois	33	160	85.6%	/  76.8%
2011/09/17	33	/  23	Arizona St.	14	at	34	/  24	Illinois	17	164	59.8%	/  59.6%
2011/09/24	72	/  76	Western Michigan	20	at	34	/  24	Illinois	23	173	79.8%	/  89.8%
2011/10/01	75	/  86	Northwestern	35	at	35	/  30	Illinois	38	166	81.3%	/  71.4%
2011/10/08	38	/  29	Illinois	41	at	97	/  96	Indiana	20	181	77.9%	/  82.7%
2011/10/15	9	/  18	Ohio St.	17	at	36	/  33	Illinois	7	147	36.0%	/  72.1%
2011/10/22	38	/  37	Illinois	14	at	72	/  74	Purdue	21	171	60.8%	/  76.5%
2011/10/29	43	/  46	Illinois	7	at	25	/  36	Penn State	10	172	26.0%	/  48.3%
2011/11/12	21	/  28	Michigan	31	at	46	/  45	Illinois	14	157	36.6%	/  30.6%
2011/11/19	6	/   6	Wisconsin	28	at	47	/  52	Illinois	17	144	15.9%	/  14.4%
2011/11/26	46	/  54	Illinois	7	at	91	/ 105	Minnesota	27	154	78.0%	/  82.0%
2011/12/31	58	/  54	Illinois	--	vs	72	/  65	UCLA	--	--	61.3%	/  41.6%

24. Belk Bowl

Tuesday, December 27 at 8:00 PM

Louisville Cardinals (6 - 5; 5 - 2 Big East)
vs
North Carolina State Wolfpack (5 - 5; 4 - 4 ACC)

GUGS Score: 47.1

Justin

Louisville Cardinals
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.586	46	0.515	65	21.3	42	18.6	59	154.9	117

North Carolina State Wolfpack
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.532	57	0.533	59	19.5	58	18.6	57	165.9	61

Ahh, the Big East. The second-least-predictable conference of the BCS six. The second-most depressing part of having these two conferences in the BCS is that they've eaten up automatic bids to big bowl games that otherwise could have gone to teams like TCU, Boise State, or Utah. This game will have all the hallmarks of a Big East/ACC matchup: low pace, mediocre defense, and so-so offense. The best analogy is that this would be an 8-9 game in the NCAA tournament. In the end, though, the Cardinals have a slightly better offense and should eek out the win. Louisville 32, North Carolina St. 30 (55.3%); 160 plays.

Eddie

Louisville Cardinals
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.617	48	0.494	71	14.8	72	12.5	30	166.1	71

North Carolina State Wolfpack
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.545	55	0.527	55	16.2	59	15.1	55	166.8	58

Big East versus ACC: The three-card monte of college football. All indications suggest that the game should be predictably slow when the Cardinal are on offense, as their 17.4 +/- 5.3 PPH offense faces off against the 14.6 +/- 1.0 PPH Wolfpack defense. In contrast, the other side of the ball is up in the air. NC State's offense is a respectable 23.4 +/- 14.4 PPH. Louisville's defense is slightly below average at 4.5 +/- 16.0 PPH. RBA says Louisville should prevail, 28-21, with 55.4% confidence, but we all know how three-card monte works out once the suckers show up.

Louisville Cardinals Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/09	82	/  70	FIU	24	at	51	/  46	Louisville	17	158	81.4%	/  82.0%
2011/09/17	59	/  53	Louisville	24	at	48	/  50	Kentucky	17	165	34.1%	/  36.8%
2011/10/01	99	/ 104	Marshall	17	at	51	/  50	Louisville	13	160	85.3%	/  80.4%
2011/10/08	60	/  61	Louisville	7	at	40	/  41	North Carolina	14	146	29.9%	/  49.1%
2011/10/15	66	/  63	Louisville	16	at	40	/  39	Cincinnati	25	155	25.5%	/  36.1%
2011/10/21	47	/  46	Rutgers	14	at	65	/  62	Louisville	16	141	50.9%	/  56.0%
2011/10/29	65	/  65	Syracuse	10	at	64	/  58	Louisville	27	149	62.4%	/  60.0%
2011/11/05	53	/  52	Louisville	38	at	28	/  31	West Virginia	35	165	28.7%	/  31.3%
2011/11/12	36	/  36	Pittsburgh	21	at	50	/  54	Louisville	14	145	46.4%	/  58.1%
2011/11/19	54	/  51	Louisville	34	at	58	/  73	Connecticut	20	167	54.0%	/  62.9%
2011/11/25	52	/  47	Louisville	34	at	41	/  49	South Florida	24	160	45.7%	/  44.1%
2011/12/27	57	/  55	North Carolina St.	--	vs	46	/  48	Louisville	--	--	55.3%	/  55.4%

North Carolina State Wolfpack Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	24	/  35	North Carolina St.	27	at	88	/  95	Wake Forest	34	163	75.8%	/  85.2%
2011/09/22	43	/  78	North Carolina St.	14	at	60	/  49	Cincinnati	44	167	50.7%	/  73.8%
2011/10/01	38	/  38	Georgia Tech	45	at	58	/  83	North Carolina St.	35	163	42.7%	/  37.2%
2011/10/08	95	/ 108	Central Michigan	24	at	53	/  70	North Carolina St.	38	162	82.1%	/  77.5%
2011/10/22	57	/  64	North Carolina St.	28	at	78	/  83	Virginia	14	172	54.7%	/  41.7%
2011/10/29	57	/  63	North Carolina St.	0	at	16	/  15	Florida St.	34	156	17.7%	/  23.0%
2011/11/05	34	/  46	North Carolina	0	at	63	/  66	North Carolina St.	13	157	37.8%	/  41.0%
2011/11/12	59	/  65	North Carolina St.	10	at	87	/  82	Boston College	14	136	65.3%	/  60.3%
2011/11/19	27	/  16	Clemson	13	at	62	/  65	North Carolina St.	37	173	28.0%	/  27.4%
2011/11/26	79	/ 110	Maryland	41	at	56	/  56	North Carolina St.	56	187	65.0%	/  63.4%
2011/12/27	57	/  55	North Carolina St.	--	vs	46	/  48	Louisville	--	--	44.7%	/  44.6%

23. GoDaddy.com Bowl

Sunday, January 8 at 9:00 PM

Arkansas State Red Wolves (9 - 2; 8 - 0 Sun Belt)
vs
Northern Illinois Huskies (9 - 3; 8 - 1 Mid-Atlantic)

GUGS Score: 47.2

Eddie

Arkansas State Red Wolves
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.420	69	0.429	117	14.4	79	14.6	51	163.7	94

Northern Illinois Huskies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.468	63	0.441	107	20.1	25	20.0	94	164.2	92

It's hard to imagine a more awful college town than Jonesboro, Arkansas (believe me, I've been there), so I can see why coach Hugh Freeze decided to jump ship to Oxford, even if it is the worst job in college football. Coaching instability makes games harder to pick, and this game was already unpredictable. NIU's offense is consistently above average at 25.2 +/- 10.2 PPH, but their defense is rivals UCLA at 9.1 +/- 21.8 PPH. It's possible that Arkansas State's offense may be able to take advantage of the Huskies' defense with their 23.7 +/- 18.6 PPH efficiency. However, it seems that the Red Wolves must do so to win because their defense isn't great at 8.2 +/- 12.8 PPH. If everything goes according to plan, Arkansas State should win 31-27 with 54.6% confidence, but one has to wonder what the coaching change will do to an already shaky offense.

Justin

Arkansas State Red Wolves
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.485	64	0.285	120	18.2	70	18.6	58	172.0	25

Northern Illinois Huskies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.540	55	0.337	115	22.6	28	21.2	73	170.2	32

One interesting point to note here is that Eddie and I disagree about most things here: who will win, whether Northern Illinois is a 0.500 team or not, and whether or not these teams play fast or slow. TFG says these are two of the 32 fastest teams in FBS, while RBA says both fall into the bottom quarter. Another interesting point is that the Huskies actually have a respectable offense, even if it's not particularly consistent. This is going to be a close one, but TFG gives the slight nod to Northern Illinois. Northern Ill. 35, Arkansas St. 33 (55.5%); 171 plays.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	88	/  90	Arkansas St.	15	at	40	/  32	Illinois	33	160	14.4%	/  23.2%
2011/09/10	115	/ 119	Memphis	3	at	93	/  85	Arkansas St.	47	175	85.5%	/  82.6%
2011/09/17	85	/  84	Arkansas St.	7	at	11	/  10	Virginia Tech	26	163	6.5%	/   5.4%
2011/10/01	89	/  80	Arkansas St.	26	at	112	/ 107	Western Kentucky	22	169	68.2%	/  69.6%
2011/10/08	90	/  83	Arkansas St.	24	at	113	/ 104	LA-Monroe	19	188	65.4%	/  73.3%
2011/10/18	78	/  61	FIU	16	at	87	/  80	Arkansas St.	34	164	54.9%	/  32.3%
2011/10/29	105	/ 105	North Texas	14	at	75	/  74	Arkansas St.	37	163	80.4%	/  72.1%
2011/11/05	74	/  69	Arkansas St.	39	at	117	/ 116	FL-Atlantic	21	169	87.0%	/  89.6%
2011/11/12	93	/  89	LA-Lafayette	21	at	74	/  72	Arkansas St.	30	188	67.1%	/  56.9%
2011/11/19	76	/  69	Arkansas St.	45	at	109	/ 107	Middle Tenn.	19	206	76.5%	/  79.1%
2011/12/03	100	/ 103	Troy	14	at	67	/  70	Arkansas St.	45	181	70.4%	/  65.6%
2012/01/08	55	/  63	Northern Ill.	--	vs	64	/  69	Arkansas St.	--	--	44.5%	/  54.6%

Northern Illinois Huskies Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	84	/  83	Army	26	at	30	/  52	Northern Ill.	49	173	87.7%	/  72.1%
2011/09/10	36	/  55	Northern Ill.	42	at	99	/  90	Kansas	45	176	77.1%	/  79.3%
2011/09/17	13	/   3	Wisconsin	49	vs	47	/  64	Northern Ill.	7	160	23.7%	/  28.2%
2011/10/01	55	/  72	Northern Ill.	41	at	101	/ 110	Central Michigan	48	187	73.4%	/  77.3%
2011/10/08	109	/ 111	Kent St.	10	at	62	/  73	Northern Ill.	40	153	88.4%	/  85.1%
2011/10/15	61	/  66	Western Michigan	22	at	56	/  68	Northern Ill.	51	188	61.6%	/  42.8%
2011/10/22	48	/  66	Northern Ill.	31	at	115	/ 110	Buffalo	30	196	87.0%	/  76.7%
2011/11/01	58	/  64	Northern Ill.	63	at	48	/  49	Toledo	60	184	39.1%	/  41.6%
2011/11/08	56	/  61	Northern Ill.	45	at	95	/ 104	Bowling Green	14	166	73.2%	/  70.7%
2011/11/15	107	/  97	Ball St.	38	at	52	/  61	Northern Ill.	41	197	85.8%	/  78.6%
2011/11/25	113	/ 113	Eastern Michigan	12	at	55	/  64	Northern Ill.	18	155	87.1%	/  88.9%
2011/12/02	69	/  66	Ohio	20	vs	55	/  63	Northern Ill.	23	157	61.4%	/  50.9%
2012/01/08	55	/  63	Northern Ill.	--	vs	64	/  69	Arkansas St.	--	--	55.5%	/  45.4%

22. New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Friday, December 30 at 3:20 PM

Iowa State Cyclones (5 - 6; 3 - 6 Big XII)
vs
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7 - 4; 4 - 3 Big East)

GUGS Score: 47.9

Justin

Iowa State Cyclones
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.421	71	0.611	18	15.6	95	17.7	43	174.5	16

Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.560	53	0.520	62	19.2	62	17.5	41	164.2	73

One might say that the Cyclones are the reason we're having a rematch in the national title game instead of an Oklahoma State/LSU showdown (note: that would not work out well for OSU). Both teams have near-identical defenses at about 17.5 PPH, but the difference will be on offense. The Scarlet Knights have a 3.6 PPH advantage, which amounts to about six points over the course of a game. On the flip side, the Cyclones have demonstrated a penchant for upsets: four of their five victories this year have come when they were underdogs. Rutgers hasn't quite shown the same ability to play beyond their numbers, but TFG gives them a slight nod regardless. Rutgers 31, Iowa St. 27 (63.8%); 169 plays.

Eddie

Iowa State Cyclones
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.389	74	0.541	30	12.6	97	13.5	37	169.5	24

Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.702	40	0.509	65	14.7	73	13.4	36	165.0	83

A bowl game in New York City baseball stadium in December? Whatever happened to lovely bowl destinations? Rutgers is a surprisingly respectable team at #40 in RBA's rankings. They're not great on either side of the ball, but they're consistent. The Scarlet Knight offensive efficiency is 16.4 +/- 3.3 PPH, and their defensive efficiency is 11.0 +/- 4.9 PPH. Iowa State rolls in at #74, largely due to a 4.8 +/- 17.4 PPH defense. However, their offense is a reliably lame 12.9 +/- 0.6 PPH. With neither team excelling on either side of the ball, the game is destined to be close, but RBA is fairly confident that the Cyclones will emerge victorious, 25-24, with 65.7% confidence.

Iowa State Cyclones Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	12	/  18	Iowa	41	at	79	/  81	Iowa St.	44	195	17.9%	/  16.2%
2011/09/16	67	/  71	Iowa St.	24	at	61	/  62	Connecticut	20	174	35.6%	/  29.6%
2011/10/01	22	/  24	Texas	37	at	60	/  66	Iowa St.	14	183	33.1%	/  24.9%
2011/10/08	69	/  75	Iowa St.	26	at	49	/  39	Baylor	49	195	29.9%	/  37.6%
2011/10/15	75	/  83	Iowa St.	17	at	26	/  28	Missouri	52	188	13.4%	/  24.5%
2011/10/22	13	/  13	Texas A&M	33	at	84	/  84	Iowa St.	17	196	17.6%	/  16.0%
2011/10/29	86	/  76	Iowa St.	41	at	35	/  40	Texas Tech	7	186	14.7%	/  25.1%
2011/11/05	101	/  93	Kansas	10	at	76	/  77	Iowa St.	13	158	73.5%	/  57.1%
2011/11/18	9	/   5	Oklahoma St.	31	at	77	/  81	Iowa St.	37	211	11.4%	/  17.8%
2011/11/26	70	/  74	Iowa St.	6	at	5	/   5	Oklahoma	26	178	10.7%	/   8.0%
2011/12/03	70	/  74	Iowa St.	23	at	32	/  27	Kansas St.	30	160	28.8%	/  24.3%
2011/12/30	53	/  40	Rutgers	--	vs	71	/  74	Iowa St.	--	--	36.2%	/  65.7%

Rutgers Scarlet Knights Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	69	/  77	Rutgers	22	at	37	/  32	North Carolina	24	154	20.4%	/  21.5%
2011/09/24	70	/  69	Ohio	26	at	64	/  68	Rutgers	38	165	64.1%	/  52.3%
2011/10/01	59	/  68	Rutgers	19	at	81	/  74	Syracuse	16	193	54.9%	/  49.1%
2011/10/08	28	/  21	Pittsburgh	10	at	58	/  59	Rutgers	34	170	36.2%	/  29.5%
2011/10/15	51	/  58	Navy	20	at	47	/  47	Rutgers	21	144	63.0%	/  65.4%
2011/10/21	47	/  46	Rutgers	14	at	65	/  62	Louisville	16	141	49.1%	/  44.0%
2011/10/29	27	/  30	West Virginia	41	at	52	/  52	Rutgers	31	185	44.7%	/  24.4%
2011/11/05	44	/  51	South Florida	17	at	52	/  54	Rutgers	20	190	50.1%	/  53.2%
2011/11/12	91	/  90	Army	12	vs	51	/  48	Rutgers	27	144	74.8%	/  70.6%
2011/11/19	38	/  37	Cincinnati	3	at	46	/  41	Rutgers	20	166	44.1%	/  35.4%
2011/11/26	40	/  39	Rutgers	22	at	63	/  70	Connecticut	40	156	63.0%	/  62.0%
2011/12/30	53	/  40	Rutgers	--	vs	71	/  74	Iowa St.	--	--	63.8%	/  34.3%

18. MAACO Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, December 22 at 8:00 PM

Arizona State Sun Devils (5 - 6; 4 - 5 Pac-12)
vs
Boise State Broncos (11 - 1; 6 - 1 Mountain West)

GUGS Score: 52.6

Eddie

Arizona State Sun Devils
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.784	30	0.528	52	19.3	29	14.9	53	174.1	6

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.949	8	0.462	95	25.7	6	11.6	21	168.8	35

As much as RBA loves Boise State, this game isn't even in the top five confidences in the bowl season. It entirely depends which Sun Devil team shows up. Is it the team that beat Missouri and USC or is it the team that lost to UCLA and Arizona? In those games, their defense didn't show up, which has become quite a habit lately at 10.5 +/- 8.7 PPH. (I blame Vontaze Burfict personal fouls.) However, their 24.5 +/- 10.6 PPH offense is generally good enough to keep them in games despite their defense. Boise State just keeps rocking along with Kellen Moore, sporting a 33.8 +/- 16.2 PPH offense that occasionally lets them down in big games. The Broncos have fallen in RBA's rankings largely due to a drop in defensive performance to 3.1 +/- 17.0 PPH. Despite being a pre-Christmas bowl game, this one should be pretty good, ending with a Bronco 34-31 victory with 74.4% probability.

Justin

Arizona State Sun Devils
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.629	38	0.584	33	20.9	45	16.9	35	177.7	10

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.900	3	0.426	77	30.6	5	12.7	5	164.7	70

This one is slightly out-of-order thanks to it being played before part IV of our preview is published. While it's nice that the Broncos are getting pitted against a team from a BCS conference, it's kind of disappointing that it has to be a team like Arizona State. Once again the Broncos are near the top of our rankings, although this year they've only played two quality teams -- Georgia and TCU -- and went 1-1 in those games.  Even with that caveat, Boise is the much better team. The Sun Devils haven't won a game since October -- not for lack of trying, as they've been competitive in all their games -- but I'm skeptical they can pull off the upset in the biggest mismatch of the bowl season. Boise St. 40, Arizona St. 28 (84.2%); 171 plays.

Arizona State Sun Devils Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/09	16	/  25	Missouri	30	at	41	/  24	Arizona St.	37	179	43.9%	/  55.7%
2011/09/17	33	/  23	Arizona St.	14	at	34	/  24	Illinois	17	164	40.2%	/  40.4%
2011/09/24	23	/  29	USC	22	at	35	/  20	Arizona St.	43	161	50.7%	/  60.9%
2011/10/01	61	/  87	Oregon St.	20	at	30	/  15	Arizona St.	35	185	79.2%	/  80.4%
2011/10/08	32	/  11	Arizona St.	35	at	31	/  34	Utah	14	168	39.6%	/  52.6%
2011/10/15	25	/  12	Arizona St.	27	at	7	/   6	Oregon	41	186	21.8%	/  26.7%
2011/10/29	91	/  81	Colorado	14	at	23	/  14	Arizona St.	48	169	92.2%	/  86.1%
2011/11/05	21	/  12	Arizona St.	28	at	68	/  73	UCLA	29	171	76.4%	/  87.5%
2011/11/12	28	/  19	Arizona St.	27	at	88	/  80	Washington St.	37	179	81.5%	/  86.6%
2011/11/19	61	/  58	Arizona	31	at	31	/  28	Arizona St.	27	200	67.4%	/  67.5%
2011/11/25	45	/  41	California	47	at	34	/  29	Arizona St.	38	163	56.1%	/  60.4%
2011/12/22	3	/   8	Boise St.	--	vs	38	/  30	Arizona St.	--	--	15.8%	/  25.6%

Boise State Broncos Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	23	/  24	Georgia	21	vs	2	/   3	Boise St.	35	159	84.9%	/  66.8%
2011/09/16	2	/   4	Boise St.	40	at	65	/  69	Toledo	15	181	89.8%	/  96.4%
2011/09/24	52	/  54	Tulsa	21	at	2	/   5	Boise St.	41	162	93.1%	/  89.8%
2011/10/01	45	/  56	Nevada	10	at	2	/   6	Boise St.	30	159	91.2%	/  91.0%
2011/10/07	2	/   7	Boise St.	57	at	72	/  74	Fresno St.	7	161	90.9%	/  91.9%
2011/10/15	2	/   7	Boise St.	63	at	109	/ 106	Colorado St.	13	162	98.2%	/  98.1%
2011/10/22	62	/  57	Air Force	26	at	3	/   7	Boise St.	37	158	95.9%	/  90.0%
2011/11/05	3	/   6	Boise St.	48	at	113	/ 120	UNLV	21	158	98.6%	/  98.8%
2011/11/12	9	/  12	TCU	36	at	3	/   8	Boise St.	35	162	71.4%	/  70.4%
2011/11/19	3	/   9	Boise St.	52	at	63	/  57	SDSU	35	184	90.6%	/  87.9%
2011/11/26	89	/  83	Wyoming	14	at	3	/   8	Boise St.	36	155	94.9%	/  92.6%
2011/12/03	120	/ 117	New Mexico	0	at	4	/   8	Boise St.	45	160	99.4%	/  99.3%
2011/12/22	3	/   8	Boise St.	--	vs	38	/  30	Arizona St.	--	--	84.2%	/  74.4%

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