2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part IV

Today is Part IV of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl
  Cincinnati Bearcats vs Vanderbilt Commodores
• Insight Bowl
  Iowa Hawkeyes vs Oklahoma Sooners
• AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
  Missouri Tigers vs North Carolina Tar Heels
• Valero Alamo Bowl
  Baylor Bears vs Washington Huskies
• Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
  Nevada Wolf Pack vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Full previews after the jump ....

21. AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Saturday, December 31 at 3:30 PM

Cincinnati Bearcats (8 - 3; 5 - 2 Big East)
vs
Vanderbilt Commodores (5 - 6; 2 - 6 SEC)

GUGS Score: 49.5

Justin

Cincinnati Bearcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.614	44	0.497	68	21.3	39	17.7	44	171.8	27

Vanderbilt Commodores
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.499	62	0.605	19	17.8	73	17.8	48	164.0	77

This is yet another game that disputes the meme "defense wins championships." Both teams have pretty even -- and respectable -- defenses, but Cincinnati has a 3.5 PPH advantage on offense. The problem is that Big East teams can be difficult to predict, and Vandy faced a much tougher schedule than the Bearcats. Even though the Commodores have a losing record against FBS opponents, they actually slightly overperformed this year with wins against UConn, Ole Miss, and a solid drubbing of Wake Forest. When all is said and done, though, Cincinnati's offense gives them a slight edge here. Cincinnati 32, Vanderbilt 29 (61.3%); 167 plays.

Eddie

Cincinnati Bearcats
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.688	41	0.514	61	17.3	44	12.9	33	168.9	32

Vanderbilt Commodores
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.757	31	0.549	16	19.0	34	11.0	13	161.5	107

Vanderbilt is a deceptively good football team. In fact, they're so deceptively good that RBA ranks them #31 overall. If you look at Vandy's losses, you'll see a team that played well but just didn't catch the breaks in the end. The Commodores led Arkansas in the 4th quarter only to miss the game tying field goal. They might have beaten Florida, if not for penalties. Vandy took Tennessee to overtime, only to throw a pick six that wasn't really a pick six. They had a shot at the end zone late against Georgia. That's not the Vanderbilt we're accustomed to seeing, and it shows in their efficiencies. The Commodores are erratic on both sides of the ball at 33.1 +/- 28.2 PPH and 0.0 +/- 23.9 PPH for offense and defense, respectively. This suggests that they'll come up short against tougher competition. Cincinnati has played like a Big East team this year, but they're more consistent than Vandy. Their offense isn't quite as explosive, but it does well at 27.7 +/- 20.9. Their defense is a relatively similar 3.6 +/- 18.7 PPH. We should expect their offense to look a little better because they get starting QB Zach Collaros back from a broken ankle. That's not included in RBA's prediction, but it helps. Even without Collaros, RBA picks the Bearcats, 27-24, with 55.7% confidence.

Cincinnati Bearcats Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	53	/  64	Cincinnati	23	at	49	/  33	Tennessee	45	160	35.9%	/  35.9%
2011/09/17	120	/ 118	Akron	14	at	62	/  63	Cincinnati	59	165	96.8%	/  95.1%
2011/09/22	43	/  78	North Carolina St.	14	at	60	/  49	Cincinnati	44	167	49.3%	/  26.2%
2011/10/01	47	/  40	Cincinnati	27	at	95	/  99	Miami-OH	0	174	71.8%	/  70.9%
2011/10/15	66	/  63	Louisville	16	at	40	/  39	Cincinnati	25	155	74.5%	/  63.9%
2011/10/22	37	/  36	Cincinnati	37	at	45	/  47	South Florida	34	192	43.8%	/  55.8%
2011/11/05	36	/  35	Cincinnati	26	at	33	/  38	Pittsburgh	23	171	45.3%	/  41.2%
2011/11/12	30	/  33	West Virginia	24	at	34	/  31	Cincinnati	21	175	50.2%	/  50.7%
2011/11/19	38	/  37	Cincinnati	3	at	46	/  41	Rutgers	20	166	55.9%	/  64.6%
2011/11/26	42	/  40	Cincinnati	30	at	78	/  84	Syracuse	13	174	70.6%	/  73.4%
2011/12/03	56	/  64	Connecticut	27	at	40	/  41	Cincinnati	35	186	57.9%	/  71.7%
2011/12/31	61	/  31	Vanderbilt	--	vs	44	/  41	Cincinnati	--	--	61.3%	/  55.7%

Vanderbilt Commodores Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	54	/  53	Connecticut	21	at	102	/  74	Vanderbilt	24	157	26.2%	/  34.4%
2011/09/17	53	/  68	Mississippi	7	at	94	/  65	Vanderbilt	30	156	33.1%	/  29.7%
2011/09/24	79	/  57	Vanderbilt	3	at	27	/  21	South Carolina	21	147	13.1%	/  21.5%
2011/10/08	86	/  55	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	/   1	Alabama	34	140	1.5%	/   5.4%
2011/10/15	17	/  16	Georgia	33	at	96	/  52	Vanderbilt	28	170	12.7%	/  24.0%
2011/10/22	90	/  85	Army	21	at	92	/  49	Vanderbilt	44	163	59.0%	/  67.2%
2011/10/29	15	/  18	Arkansas	31	at	83	/  45	Vanderbilt	28	166	19.6%	/  23.1%
2011/11/05	79	/  42	Vanderbilt	21	at	13	/  20	Florida	26	158	11.7%	/  17.4%
2011/11/12	80	/  60	Kentucky	8	at	76	/  41	Vanderbilt	38	156	56.4%	/  64.5%
2011/11/19	64	/  32	Vanderbilt	21	at	53	/  40	Tennessee	27	157	43.2%	/  41.1%
2011/11/26	69	/  31	Vanderbilt	41	at	67	/  73	Wake Forest	7	164	49.0%	/  80.7%
2011/12/31	61	/  31	Vanderbilt	--	vs	44	/  41	Cincinnati	--	--	38.7%	/  44.3%

20. Insight Bowl

Friday, December 30 at 10:00 PM

Iowa Hawkeyes (6 - 5; 4 - 4 Big Ten)
vs
Oklahoma Sooners (9 - 3; 6 - 3 Big XII)

GUGS Score: 50.0

Eddie

Iowa Hawkeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.755	32	0.523	59	17.3	43	13.8	40	164.0	93

Oklahoma Sooners
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.957	7	0.543	25	23.1	10	10.3	7	171.7	14

The predicted score is close because Iowa plays slow, but this is RBA's lock of the bowl season. Oklahoma is a damn good football team that flopped in a few games. The Sooner offense rolls at 31.9 +/- 17.5 PPH, and their defense is a surprisingly effective 2.6 +/- 15.4 PPH. On the other hand, Iowa has gotten by largely on the back of their 0.0 +/- 13.9 PPH defense because their 26.3 +/- 18.0 PPH offense certainly isn't anything to write home about. Just because this game is the lock of the bowl season doesn't mean that Iowa can't win because RBA thinks it will be relatively close. Oklahoma is just so much better of a team that RBA is 79.4% confident that the Sooners will win 27-24.

Justin

Iowa Hawkeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.627	39	0.557	49	21.0	44	17.0	36	165.9	62

Oklahoma Sooners
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.847	8	0.594	25	25.1	16	12.7	4	178.7	7

Poor Oklahoma. They started out as one of the top teams this year, then blew two games they had about a 90% chance of winnings, and then capped off the season by handing a game to Oklahoma State. Now they've been paired up with a so-so Iowa team in a second-tier bowl. Even with three losses, the Sooners are far and away the superior team on both sides of the ball. Their offensive prowess has been somewhat inflated by how fast they play -- seventh-fastest in FBS -- while their defense has been overlooked. Part of that is due to the 44 points they gave up to the Cowboys and the 45 they surrendered to Baylor, but both of those games were high-paced affairs against top-level offenses. Iowa's offense is solidly middle-of-the-pack, and points will be hard to come by. Assuming the Sooners aren't let down by having to play here instead of a BCS bowl, this one shouldn't be close. Oklahoma 36, Iowa 28 (76.8%); 172 plays.

Iowa Hawkeyes Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	12	/  18	Iowa	41	at	79	/  81	Iowa St.	44	195	82.1%	/  83.8%
2011/09/17	28	/  33	Pittsburgh	27	at	20	/  19	Iowa	31	183	66.4%	/  53.1%
2011/09/24	110	/ 105	LA-Monroe	17	at	25	/  18	Iowa	45	165	96.3%	/  93.8%
2011/10/08	25	/  17	Iowa	3	at	30	/  40	Penn State	13	154	43.2%	/  52.2%
2011/10/15	68	/  87	Northwestern	31	at	35	/  22	Iowa	41	168	78.5%	/  76.3%
2011/10/22	96	/ 102	Indiana	24	at	35	/  24	Iowa	45	155	90.5%	/  84.5%
2011/10/29	34	/  24	Iowa	21	at	102	/ 112	Minnesota	22	143	79.2%	/  89.6%
2011/11/05	18	/  28	Michigan	16	at	38	/  27	Iowa	24	153	37.1%	/  60.3%
2011/11/12	22	/  25	Michigan St.	37	at	33	/  27	Iowa	21	182	42.7%	/  69.5%
2011/11/19	35	/  29	Iowa	31	at	70	/  74	Purdue	21	166	69.7%	/  75.3%
2011/11/25	36	/  30	Iowa	7	at	23	/  25	Nebraska	20	169	40.7%	/  38.1%
2011/12/30	8	/   7	Oklahoma	--	vs	39	/  32	Iowa	--	--	23.2%	/  20.6%

Oklahoma Sooners Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	47	/  57	Tulsa	14	at	7	/   6	Oklahoma	47	191	88.3%	/  85.6%
2011/09/17	6	/   5	Oklahoma	23	at	12	/  12	Florida St.	13	150	51.7%	/  28.1%
2011/09/24	26	/  30	Missouri	28	at	4	/   8	Oklahoma	38	194	82.5%	/  76.8%
2011/10/01	102	/  91	Ball St.	6	at	6	/   8	Oklahoma	62	182	97.6%	/  97.6%
2011/10/08	22	/  31	Texas	17	vs	4	/   6	Oklahoma	55	179	75.1%	/  73.8%
2011/10/15	5	/   5	Oklahoma	47	at	90	/  91	Kansas	17	183	94.1%	/  95.8%
2011/10/22	43	/  39	Texas Tech	41	at	5	/   6	Oklahoma	38	213	90.9%	/  87.9%
2011/10/29	6	/   5	Oklahoma	58	at	30	/  37	Kansas St.	17	162	67.8%	/  81.5%
2011/11/05	20	/  22	Texas A&M	25	at	5	/   5	Oklahoma	41	214	76.7%	/  70.3%
2011/11/19	4	/   4	Oklahoma	38	at	57	/  50	Baylor	45	194	88.1%	/  85.0%
2011/11/26	70	/  74	Iowa St.	6	at	5	/   5	Oklahoma	26	178	89.3%	/  92.0%
2011/12/03	5	/   7	Oklahoma	10	at	12	/   4	Oklahoma St.	44	181	63.7%	/  45.3%
2011/12/30	8	/   7	Oklahoma	--	vs	39	/  32	Iowa	--	--	76.8%	/  79.4%

19. AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Monday, December 26 at 5:00 PM

Missouri Tigers (6 - 5; 5 - 4 Big XII)
vs
North Carolina Tar Heels (6 - 5; 3 - 5 ACC)

GUGS Score: 50.1

Justin

Missouri Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.706	23	0.569	44	20.6	48	14.5	14	170.5	31

North Carolina Tar Heels
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.610	45	0.553	52	21.3	38	17.8	46	162.6	87

Yet another bowl game that feels like an 8/9 matchup in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Congratulations Missouri and UNC; you've finished in the middle of your respective conferences, so here's a day-after-Christmas bowl game. This one will be somewhat close since both teams play at moderate speeds and reasonably well matched. Missouri has the better defense by 3.3 PPH, but the Tar Heels have a 0.7 PPH advantage on offense. That adds up to a close game where the Tigers are slight favorites. If you're looking for a good but not spectacular game, this one's a good choice. Missouri 31, North Carolina 29 (60.5%); 166 plays.

Eddie

Missouri Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.812	24	0.527	56	16.8	52	11.2	14	174.4	5

North Carolina Tar Heels
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.618	46	0.543	24	16.9	49	14.0	44	163.4	99

I know TFG says this game will be a close 8/9-style matchup, but RBA disagrees. The Tigers are a legitimate top 25 team, despite their five losses, whereas North Carolina barely makes the top 50. The most significant factor in the difference between these two teams is the Tar Heel defense and its 2.7 +/- 22.7 PPH efficiency. Their ineptitude should make Missouri's 20.5 +/- 7.3 PPH offense look better than most would expect. Mizzou's defense isn't that great either at 1.0 +/- 20.4 PPH, but North Carolina's 0.598 strength simply can't capitalize on it as well. RBA says Missouri wins by nearly two touchdowns, 34-21, with 64.5% confidence.

Missouri Tigers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	89	/  89	Miami-OH	6	at	18	/  23	Missouri	17	165	92.5%	/  88.4%
2011/09/09	16	/  25	Missouri	30	at	41	/  24	Arizona St.	37	179	56.1%	/  44.3%
2011/09/24	26	/  30	Missouri	28	at	4	/   8	Oklahoma	38	194	17.5%	/  23.2%
2011/10/08	23	/  30	Missouri	17	at	35	/  37	Kansas St.	24	161	50.7%	/  54.6%
2011/10/15	75	/  83	Iowa St.	17	at	26	/  28	Missouri	52	188	86.6%	/  75.5%
2011/10/22	15	/   9	Oklahoma St.	45	at	22	/  27	Missouri	24	187	57.4%	/  36.2%
2011/10/29	26	/  23	Missouri	38	at	14	/  19	Texas A&M	31	203	30.5%	/  44.1%
2011/11/05	25	/  25	Missouri	39	at	57	/  44	Baylor	42	200	67.6%	/  62.5%
2011/11/12	15	/  24	Texas	5	at	26	/  26	Missouri	17	165	47.1%	/  54.2%
2011/11/19	67	/  64	Texas Tech	27	at	24	/  26	Missouri	31	182	77.1%	/  71.0%
2011/11/26	25	/  27	Missouri	24	vs	108	/  88	Kansas	10	152	91.3%	/  87.0%
2011/12/26	45	/  46	North Carolina	--	vs	23	/  24	Missouri	--	--	60.5%	/  64.5%

North Carolina Tar Heels Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	69	/  77	Rutgers	22	at	37	/  32	North Carolina	24	154	79.6%	/  78.5%
2011/09/17	90	/  80	Virginia	17	at	44	/  44	North Carolina	28	164	82.8%	/  77.6%
2011/09/24	42	/  46	North Carolina	28	at	37	/  38	Georgia Tech	35	148	35.1%	/  46.7%
2011/10/01	41	/  48	North Carolina	35	at	80	/  81	East Carolina	20	160	64.3%	/  69.8%
2011/10/08	60	/  61	Louisville	7	at	40	/  41	North Carolina	14	146	70.1%	/  50.9%
2011/10/15	28	/  65	Miami-FL	30	at	41	/  41	North Carolina	24	160	48.8%	/  60.1%
2011/10/22	40	/  44	North Carolina	38	at	23	/   8	Clemson	59	181	26.4%	/  33.0%
2011/10/29	72	/  85	Wake Forest	24	at	39	/  42	North Carolina	49	162	77.8%	/  70.1%
2011/11/05	34	/  46	North Carolina	0	at	63	/  66	North Carolina St.	13	157	62.2%	/  59.0%
2011/11/17	43	/  48	North Carolina	21	at	13	/  23	Virginia Tech	24	157	29.9%	/  40.1%
2011/11/26	87	/  82	Duke	21	at	38	/  46	North Carolina	37	167	76.8%	/  73.1%
2011/12/26	45	/  46	North Carolina	--	vs	23	/  24	Missouri	--	--	39.5%	/  35.5%

17. Valero Alamo Bowl

Thursday, December 29 at 9:00 PM

Baylor Bears (8 - 3; 6 - 3 Big XII)
vs
Washington Huskies (6 - 5; 5 - 4 Pac-12)

GUGS Score: 53.3

Note: This is our computers' pick for the Shootout of the Bowl Season, the bowl game expected to have the highest combined score between the two teams.

Eddie

Baylor Bears
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.721	36	0.564	3	22.3	16	18.1	77	172.7	12

Washington Huskies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.611	49	0.550	13	21.1	19	17.3	74	167.9	43

This game is RBA's second least confident pick of the bowl season. Justin touches upon the primary reason for that; neither team plays particularly strong defense. Baylor allows 10.6 +/- 15.0 PPH, and Washington allows 7.5 +/- 19.5 PPH. When coupled with Baylor's 25.2 +/- 5.9 PPH offense and Washington's 31.3 +/- 20.4 PPH offense, we can expect some points. RBA gives Baylor a touchdown, 38-31, but with only 50.1% confidence because the two teams' strengths are nearly identical 0.595 and 0.593.

Justin

Baylor Bears
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.616	41	0.603	21	26.0	12	21.5	78	177.8	9

Washington Huskies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.514	60	0.619	15	22.2	33	21.7	81	163.1	82

The Bears have definitely overperformed this year, with surprising wins over TCU, Oklahoma, and Texas. The reason TFG doesn't think too highly of them, though, is that generally speaking "the first to 50 points wins" isn't a good strategy to keep winning. The Baylor offense is definitely top-notch, although it receives a bit of a boost in reputation because they play so fast. The Huskies aren't too far behind Baylor there -- only 3.8 PPH -- but it's enough to tip the balance in Baylor's favor. Throw in the fact that both of these defenses fall into the bottom half of the FBS in terms of efficiency, and we should see a high-scoring game. The Huskies will need to either slow down the Bears or get enough spark on offense to keep up, but look for this one to have scoring in spades. Baylor 40, Washington 37 (60.2%); 170 plays.

Baylor Bears Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/02	1	/   4	TCU	48	at	65	/  55	Baylor	50	177	10.1%	/   9.7%
2011/09/24	100	/  98	Rice	31	at	46	/  47	Baylor	56	191	88.1%	/  81.2%
2011/10/01	46	/  49	Baylor	35	at	36	/  43	Kansas St.	36	168	31.3%	/  42.2%
2011/10/08	69	/  75	Iowa St.	26	at	49	/  39	Baylor	49	195	70.1%	/  62.4%
2011/10/15	46	/  42	Baylor	28	at	16	/  15	Texas A&M	55	181	22.1%	/  29.8%
2011/10/29	50	/  44	Baylor	24	at	12	/   8	Oklahoma St.	59	190	16.7%	/  31.5%
2011/11/05	25	/  25	Missouri	39	at	57	/  44	Baylor	42	200	32.4%	/  37.5%
2011/11/12	55	/  46	Baylor	31	at	101	/  93	Kansas	30	175	77.1%	/  80.5%
2011/11/19	4	/   4	Oklahoma	38	at	57	/  50	Baylor	45	194	11.9%	/  15.0%
2011/11/26	71	/  67	Texas Tech	42	vs	50	/  45	Baylor	66	210	63.1%	/  58.6%
2011/12/03	24	/  22	Texas	24	at	45	/  36	Baylor	48	171	35.2%	/  22.6%
2011/12/29	60	/  49	Washington	--	vs	41	/  36	Baylor	--	--	60.2%	/  50.1%

Washington Huskies Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	55	/  58	Hawaii	32	at	68	/  57	Washington	40	149	54.1%	/  51.1%
2011/09/17	60	/  51	Washington	38	at	17	/  15	Nebraska	51	177	17.3%	/  20.1%
2011/09/24	47	/  51	California	23	at	61	/  48	Washington	31	159	51.5%	/  55.2%
2011/10/01	56	/  41	Washington	31	at	16	/  31	Utah	14	148	17.7%	/  36.2%
2011/10/15	83	/  75	Colorado	24	at	48	/  31	Washington	52	161	78.4%	/  67.8%
2011/10/22	44	/  32	Washington	21	at	4	/   2	Stanford	65	159	8.6%	/  11.7%
2011/10/29	40	/  43	Arizona	31	at	47	/  33	Washington	42	172	59.2%	/  67.9%
2011/11/05	6	/   4	Oregon	34	at	45	/  30	Washington	17	162	19.5%	/  13.5%
2011/11/12	48	/  34	Washington	17	at	19	/  15	USC	40	158	27.5%	/  46.3%
2011/11/19	52	/  43	Washington	21	at	71	/  71	Oregon St.	38	157	61.6%	/  70.3%
2011/11/26	80	/  80	Washington St.	21	at	60	/  48	Washington	38	163	62.0%	/  75.0%
2011/12/29	60	/  49	Washington	--	vs	41	/  36	Baylor	--	--	39.8%	/  49.9%

16. Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Saturday, December 24 at 8:00 PM

Nevada Wolf Pack (7 - 5; 5 - 2 Western Atlantic)
vs
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (10 - 2; 7 - 2 Conference-USA)

GUGS Score: 54.0

Justin

Nevada Wolf Pack
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.616	42	0.362	103	21.8	35	18.1	52	169.9	36

Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.632	36	0.360	105	21.9	34	17.7	45	176.6	13

You'd think that a 10-2 team from a superior conference would be heavy favorites against a 7-5 team from a bottom-tier conference, but this isn't the case. The Wolfpack suffered a 49 point drubbing at the hands of a frustrated Oregon squad, and a 20-point loss at Boise State. Other than that their three losses have come by a combined nine points. Southern Miss, on the other hand, had bad losses to UAB and Marshall. These teams are about as mirror image of each other as you can get; they differ by 0.1 PPH on offense and 0.4 PPH on defense. Souther Miss plays slightly more up-tempo, but in the end they're going to have a slight edge. The emphasis, though, is on "slight." Southern Miss. 35, Nevada 33 (51.7%); 173 plays.

Eddie

Nevada Wolf Pack
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.543	56	0.466	89	18.4	39	16.5	67	170.4	22

Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.893	15	0.482	76	21.3	18	14.5	50	168.9	33

Let's just say that RBA disagrees with Justin's accessment. Southern Miss's offense has been an anomaly this year because it shows up against strong competition but plays down to weak competition, such as Marshall and UAB. Their offense is above average at 19.7 -/+ 3.3 PPH (note the sign flip), which should have a field day against Nevada's 4.4 +/- 24.1 PPH defense. The Golden Eagle defense isn't great but better than Nevada at 10.2 +/- 8.6 PPH. Nobody will see this game, but it should be a respectable Southern Miss victory, 34-28, with 64.0% confidence.

Nevada Wolf Pack Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	26	/  49	Nevada	20	at	10	/   4	Oregon	69	189	20.8%	/  24.0%
2011/09/17	39	/  57	Nevada	17	at	115	/ 105	SJSU	14	167	90.2%	/  95.1%
2011/09/24	50	/  60	Nevada	34	at	41	/  43	Texas Tech	35	171	34.6%	/  48.2%
2011/10/01	45	/  56	Nevada	10	at	2	/   6	Boise St.	30	159	8.8%	/   9.0%
2011/10/08	105	/ 120	UNLV	0	at	44	/  52	Nevada	37	170	90.2%	/  91.5%
2011/10/15	118	/ 117	New Mexico	7	at	39	/  49	Nevada	49	171	97.4%	/  93.9%
2011/10/22	73	/  77	Fresno St.	38	at	34	/  51	Nevada	45	174	82.3%	/  68.0%
2011/10/29	33	/  51	Nevada	48	at	111	/ 107	New Mexico St.	34	185	86.9%	/  92.5%
2011/11/12	70	/  70	Hawaii	28	at	45	/  55	Nevada	42	180	69.8%	/  56.4%
2011/11/19	59	/  63	LA Tech	24	at	44	/  55	Nevada	20	182	60.6%	/  58.6%
2011/11/26	48	/  55	Nevada	17	at	82	/  79	Utah St.	21	158	71.0%	/  63.7%
2011/12/03	107	/ 107	Idaho	3	at	51	/  56	Nevada	56	173	83.6%	/  86.4%
2011/12/24	36	/  15	Southern Miss.	--	vs	42	/  56	Nevada	--	--	48.3%	/  36.0%

Southern Miss Golden Eagles Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	79	/  79	LA Tech	17	at	60	/  58	Southern Miss.	19	179	75.4%	/  69.4%
2011/09/10	63	/  61	Southern Miss.	20	at	92	/  89	Marshall	26	186	59.1%	/  79.2%
2011/09/24	69	/  61	Southern Miss.	30	at	87	/  83	Virginia	24	189	49.8%	/  33.3%
2011/10/01	100	/ 100	Rice	24	at	73	/  57	Southern Miss.	48	188	76.9%	/  74.9%
2011/10/08	67	/  65	Southern Miss.	63	at	41	/  48	Navy	35	177	25.6%	/  39.3%
2011/10/22	46	/  52	SMU	3	at	59	/  42	Southern Miss.	27	158	53.9%	/  52.2%
2011/10/29	51	/  32	Southern Miss.	31	at	77	/  91	UTEP	13	162	57.1%	/  80.5%
2011/11/05	47	/  26	Southern Miss.	48	at	88	/  86	East Carolina	28	174	70.3%	/  81.0%
2011/11/12	54	/  59	UCF	29	at	42	/  29	Southern Miss.	30	174	61.3%	/  69.7%
2011/11/17	41	/  27	Southern Miss.	31	at	114	/ 118	UAB	34	166	92.1%	/  93.1%
2011/11/26	118	/ 114	Memphis	7	at	49	/  19	Southern Miss.	44	171	94.9%	/  98.2%
2011/12/03	43	/  15	Southern Miss.	49	at	23	/  28	Houston	28	205	36.8%	/  48.0%
2011/12/24	36	/  15	Southern Miss.	--	vs	42	/  56	Nevada	--	--	51.7%	/  64.0%

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