Today is Part V of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
- Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
California Golden Bears vs Texas Longhorns - Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Toledo Rockets vs Air Force Falcons - Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
BYU Cougars vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane - Hyundai Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Utah Utes - AT&T Cotton Bowl
Arkansas Razorbacks vs Kansas State Wildcats
Full previews after the jump ....
15. Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Wednesday, December 28 at 8:00 PM
California Golden Bears (6 - 5; 5 - 5 Pac-12)
vs
Texas Longhorns (7 - 5; 4 - 5 Big XII)
vs
Texas Longhorns (7 - 5; 4 - 5 Big XII)
GUGS Score: 54.2
Note: This will be the tiebreaker for our season-long Coin Toss Game of the Week series, which ended in a 6-6 tie.
Note: This will be the tiebreaker for our season-long Coin Toss Game of the Week series, which ended in a 6-6 tie.
Eddie
California Golden Bears | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.676 | 42 | 0.538 | 34 | 16.9 | 50 | 13.9 | 42 | 167.6 | 47 |
Texas Longhorns | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.825 | 22 | 0.522 | 60 | 19.7 | 26 | 11.4 | 17 | 168.3 | 41 |
Cal is consistently mediocre offensively with a 19.7 +/- 5.7 PPH efficiency. In contrast, Texas has shown spurts of brilliance against weaker teams and faceplanted against stronger teams, and it shows with their 33.1 +/- 26.8 PPH efficiency. The same holds for the Longhorns' 0.3 +/- 22.2 PPH defense. The real issue here is whether the 6.7 +/- 14.3 PPH Golden Bear defense decides to show up. After all, this is the team that managed to hang within a field goal of Stanford but lose to UCLA by more than two touchdowns. I can't help but think that this pick is doomed from the start, but RBA picks Cal, 29-28, with 76.4% confidence.
Justin
California Golden Bears | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.615 | 43 | 0.591 | 27 | 19.8 | 53 | 16.4 | 31 | 165.3 | 66 |
Texas Longhorns | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.686 | 25 | 0.569 | 43 | 21.3 | 41 | 15.6 | 25 | 161.9 | 93 |
Personally I'm a bit nervous about this pick since my last four predictions about Texas have been wrong. Combine that with me being only slightly certain about this game while RBA is much more certain, and it looks like Eddie may take the first annual Coin Toss victory. As for the game itself, the two teams are pretty evenly matched. The Longhorns have a 1.5 PPH advantage on offense and a 0.8 PPH advantage on defense, which works out to about a field goal per game. This will be a slow and defense-oriented game with not too much scoring. TFG suspects the Longhors will pull away in the end, though. Texas 30, California 28 (57.9%); 163 plays.
California Golden Bears Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/03 | 45 | / 46 | California | 36 | vs | 69 | / 74 | Fresno St. | 21 | 163 | 64.0% | / 67.9% |
2011/09/10 | 42 | / 50 | California | 36 | at | 80 | / 72 | Colorado | 33 | 179 | 61.0% | / 63.6% |
2011/09/24 | 47 | / 51 | California | 23 | at | 61 | / 48 | Washington | 31 | 159 | 48.5% | / 44.8% |
2011/10/06 | 48 | / 51 | California | 15 | at | 8 | / 5 | Oregon | 43 | 196 | 12.4% | / 13.0% |
2011/10/13 | 33 | / 27 | USC | 30 | at | 57 | / 53 | California | 9 | 165 | 44.1% | / 38.6% |
2011/10/22 | 32 | / 35 | Utah | 10 | at | 63 | / 53 | California | 34 | 148 | 40.3% | / 30.1% |
2011/10/29 | 53 | / 55 | California | 14 | at | 76 | / 79 | UCLA | 31 | 159 | 55.3% | / 58.8% |
2011/11/05 | 87 | / 76 | Washington St. | 7 | at | 59 | / 58 | California | 30 | 167 | 68.4% | / 66.3% |
2011/11/12 | 62 | / 67 | Oregon St. | 6 | at | 58 | / 52 | California | 23 | 150 | 58.5% | / 50.5% |
2011/11/19 | 51 | / 44 | California | 28 | at | 7 | / 7 | Stanford | 31 | 152 | 15.2% | / 10.0% |
2011/11/25 | 45 | / 41 | California | 47 | at | 34 | / 29 | Arizona St. | 38 | 163 | 43.9% | / 39.6% |
2011/12/28 | 25 | / 22 | Texas | -- | vs | 43 | / 42 | California | -- | -- | 42.1% | / 76.4% |
Texas Longhorns Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/03 | 98 | / 102 | Rice | 9 | at | 33 | / 33 | Texas | 34 | 161 | 91.8% | / 85.3% |
2011/09/10 | 38 | / 52 | BYU | 16 | at | 25 | / 29 | Texas | 17 | 148 | 71.3% | / 60.5% |
2011/09/17 | 24 | / 30 | Texas | 49 | at | 76 | / 76 | UCLA | 20 | 154 | 72.5% | / 75.8% |
2011/10/01 | 22 | / 24 | Texas | 37 | at | 60 | / 66 | Iowa St. | 14 | 183 | 66.9% | / 75.1% |
2011/10/08 | 22 | / 31 | Texas | 17 | vs | 4 | / 6 | Oklahoma | 55 | 179 | 24.9% | / 26.2% |
2011/10/15 | 15 | / 10 | Oklahoma St. | 38 | at | 29 | / 34 | Texas | 26 | 184 | 48.4% | / 47.7% |
2011/10/29 | 90 | / 93 | Kansas | 0 | at | 32 | / 31 | Texas | 43 | 151 | 89.1% | / 85.3% |
2011/11/05 | 54 | / 56 | Texas Tech | 20 | at | 23 | / 23 | Texas | 52 | 170 | 74.6% | / 58.9% |
2011/11/12 | 15 | / 24 | Texas | 5 | at | 26 | / 26 | Missouri | 17 | 165 | 52.9% | / 45.8% |
2011/11/19 | 34 | / 30 | Kansas St. | 17 | at | 22 | / 24 | Texas | 13 | 156 | 60.6% | / 63.9% |
2011/11/24 | 24 | / 22 | Texas | 27 | at | 21 | / 16 | Texas A&M | 25 | 190 | 45.9% | / 41.7% |
2011/12/03 | 24 | / 22 | Texas | 24 | at | 45 | / 36 | Baylor | 48 | 171 | 64.8% | / 77.4% |
2011/12/28 | 25 | / 22 | Texas | -- | vs | 43 | / 42 | California | -- | -- | 57.9% | / 23.6% |
14. Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Wednesday, December 28 at 4:30 PM
Toledo Rockets (7 - 4; 7 - 1 Mid-Atlantic)
vs
Air Force Falcons (5 - 5; 3 - 4 Mountain West)
vs
Air Force Falcons (5 - 5; 3 - 4 Mountain West)
GUGS Score: 54.5
Justin
Toledo Rockets | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.582 | 47 | 0.416 | 85 | 24.4 | 21 | 21.3 | 75 | 174.3 | 17 |
Air Force Falcons | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.570 | 52 | 0.419 | 81 | 20.8 | 46 | 18.6 | 56 | 167.2 | 56 |
The Falcons had the misfortune of having TCU, Boise State, and Notre Dame on their schedule this year, but didn't do themselves any favors by dropping games against San Diego State and Wyoming. One of the risks of playing slow, deliberate ball is that a single freak play can lead to a big swing in the outcome. Toledo actually provided an early-season contrast between Ohio State and Boise State; the Rockets visited the Buckeyes and lost by 5, and the next week hosted Boise State and got blown out by 25. The next week they lost a close one to Syracuse, but then went on to win seven of their next eight. They also played back-to-back games in which they scored 63 points; they won one and lost one. In this matchup, though, Toledo plays like a team that has less emphasis on defense and more on simply piling points on the board, whereas Air Force plays like a team that gets just enough offense to score more than the other team. This will be a true coin toss, with a slight edge going to the Rockets. Toledo 36, Air Force 35 (51.2%); 170 plays.
Eddie
Toledo Rockets | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.586 | 52 | 0.446 | 105 | 21.0 | 20 | 18.8 | 85 | 168.5 | 38 |
Air Force Falcons | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.579 | 53 | 0.472 | 85 | 18.6 | 36 | 16.5 | 66 | 164.2 | 90 |
Like TFG, RBA considers this game a pure toss-up. However, this game is illustrative of the distinction between score and confidence. Toledo has a slight edge offensively, 28.7 +/- 15.5 PPH, against the Falcons' 26.1 +/- 15.1 PPH. They are more consistent defensively at 13.3 +/- 11.0 PPH, as opposed to the Falcons' superior but less consistent 6.6 +/- 19.7 PPH. These figures add up to Toledo winning by a touchdown, 35-28, but with only 50.04% confidence. The confidence difference is due to the relative strengths of the teams. The two teams have nearly identical strengths, 0.564 versus 0.563, so the game is effectively a toss-up. However it's computed, this should be a fun game to watch.
Toledo Rockets Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/10 | 75 | / 86 | Toledo | 22 | at | 1 | / 5 | Ohio St. | 27 | 169 | 2.4% | / 3.3% |
2011/09/16 | 2 | / 4 | Boise St. | 40 | at | 65 | / 69 | Toledo | 15 | 181 | 10.2% | / 3.6% |
2011/09/24 | 67 | / 67 | Toledo | 30 | at | 84 | / 72 | Syracuse | 33 | 173 | 49.1% | / 49.4% |
2011/10/01 | 69 | / 67 | Toledo | 36 | at | 39 | / 20 | Temple | 13 | 141 | 21.9% | / 36.6% |
2011/10/08 | 117 | / 116 | Eastern Michigan | 16 | at | 55 | / 50 | Toledo | 54 | 163 | 95.5% | / 91.1% |
2011/10/15 | 50 | / 46 | Toledo | 28 | at | 98 | / 101 | Bowling Green | 21 | 173 | 72.4% | / 81.6% |
2011/10/22 | 99 | / 101 | Miami-OH | 28 | at | 49 | / 50 | Toledo | 49 | 169 | 87.2% | / 80.1% |
2011/11/01 | 58 | / 64 | Northern Ill. | 63 | at | 48 | / 49 | Toledo | 60 | 184 | 60.9% | / 58.4% |
2011/11/08 | 70 | / 75 | Western Michigan | 63 | at | 48 | / 50 | Toledo | 66 | 221 | 69.0% | / 64.8% |
2011/11/18 | 48 | / 53 | Toledo | 44 | at | 106 | / 108 | Central Michigan | 17 | 164 | 83.0% | / 78.3% |
2011/11/25 | 47 | / 52 | Toledo | 45 | at | 104 | / 98 | Ball St. | 28 | 187 | 83.3% | / 82.5% |
2011/12/28 | 52 | / 53 | Air Force | -- | vs | 47 | / 52 | Toledo | -- | -- | 51.2% | / 50.0% |
Air Force Falcons Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/10 | 4 | / 8 | TCU | 35 | at | 46 | / 39 | Air Force | 19 | 160 | 24.9% | / 12.0% |
2011/10/01 | 49 | / 46 | Air Force | 35 | at | 42 | / 44 | Navy | 34 | 181 | 37.7% | / 47.3% |
2011/10/08 | 50 | / 47 | Air Force | 33 | at | 14 | / 16 | Notre Dame | 59 | 181 | 18.2% | / 42.8% |
2011/10/13 | 70 | / 57 | SDSU | 41 | at | 58 | / 51 | Air Force | 27 | 163 | 66.4% | / 62.2% |
2011/10/22 | 62 | / 57 | Air Force | 26 | at | 3 | / 7 | Boise St. | 37 | 158 | 4.1% | / 10.0% |
2011/10/29 | 55 | / 50 | Air Force | 42 | at | 120 | / 118 | New Mexico | 0 | 142 | 93.7% | / 93.8% |
2011/11/05 | 92 | / 87 | Army | 14 | at | 43 | / 47 | Air Force | 24 | 161 | 81.5% | / 65.9% |
2011/11/12 | 100 | / 91 | Wyoming | 25 | at | 44 | / 49 | Air Force | 17 | 166 | 84.4% | / 80.6% |
2011/11/19 | 112 | / 119 | UNLV | 17 | at | 49 | / 54 | Air Force | 45 | 166 | 89.1% | / 89.2% |
2011/11/26 | 51 | / 53 | Air Force | 45 | at | 111 | / 111 | Colorado St. | 21 | 148 | 87.6% | / 86.5% |
2011/12/28 | 52 | / 53 | Air Force | -- | vs | 47 | / 52 | Toledo | -- | -- | 48.8% | / 50.0% |
13. Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Friday, December 30 at 12:00 PM
BYU Cougars (8 - 3; 0 - 0 Independents)
vs
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8 - 4; 7 - 1 Conference-USA)
vs
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8 - 4; 7 - 1 Conference-USA)
GUGS Score: 56.8
Eddie
BYU Cougars | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.618 | 47 | 0.482 | 77 | 17.1 | 47 | 13.8 | 41 | 169.3 | 30 |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.598 | 50 | 0.467 | 88 | 19.2 | 31 | 16.6 | 68 | 170.9 | 19 |
RBA has respected the Golden Hurricane historically, including (incorrectly) picking them to beat Houston earlier this year. However, this game tilts in favor of BYU. Sure, the Cougars lost a couple games early this year, but if the headlines indicate anything, their turnaround is due to the appearance of backup quarterback Riley Nelson. As such, their offense is considered a little shaky at 28.0 +/- 21.8 PPH, but that's still pretty good overall. Tulsa is no slouch either, showing a comparable 29.2 +/- 20.1 PPH offensive efficiency. The difference should appear on defense, as Tulsa shows a slightly weaker and slightly less consistent 5.6 +/- 22.0 PPH compared to the Cougars' 4.6 +/- 18.4 PPH. It should be close, but RBA picks BYU, 31-27, with 52.8% confidence.
Justin
BYU Cougars | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.629 | 37 | 0.419 | 80 | 20.1 | 51 | 16.3 | 30 | 166.2 | 59 |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.641 | 33 | 0.451 | 72 | 21.7 | 36 | 17.2 | 40 | 177.6 | 11 |
This should be a really good game. Even though these are non-BCS teams, both are definitely in the top third of FBS. The Golden Hurricanes' only losses this year have come to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Boise State, and Houston. BYU has a similar resume, with its only losses coming to Texas, Utah, and TCU. Both offenses are respectable, but their defenses are definitely the stronger aspect for each team. Whichever offense is able to get going first will be the one that walks away with the victory. Tulsa has a 1.6 PPH advantage on that end, and only surrenders 0.9 PPH on the defensive side. This game will be moderately quick and feature two quality teams. TFG gives the slightest of nods to the Golden Hurricane, though. Tulsa 33, BYU 31 (51.4%); 171 plays.
BYU Cougars Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/03 | 38 | / 56 | BYU | 14 | at | 59 | / 61 | Mississippi | 13 | 148 | 47.2% | / 46.2% |
2011/09/10 | 38 | / 52 | BYU | 16 | at | 25 | / 29 | Texas | 17 | 148 | 28.7% | / 39.5% |
2011/09/17 | 32 | / 32 | Utah | 54 | at | 42 | / 54 | BYU | 10 | 175 | 52.5% | / 64.7% |
2011/09/23 | 39 | / 36 | UCF | 17 | at | 58 | / 58 | BYU | 24 | 154 | 46.6% | / 32.5% |
2011/09/30 | 94 | / 105 | Utah St. | 24 | at | 52 | / 52 | BYU | 27 | 173 | 83.2% | / 72.4% |
2011/10/08 | 107 | / 99 | SJSU | 16 | at | 54 | / 54 | BYU | 29 | 144 | 89.0% | / 87.1% |
2011/10/15 | 60 | / 55 | BYU | 38 | at | 59 | / 79 | Oregon St. | 28 | 170 | 40.8% | / 66.7% |
2011/10/28 | 8 | / 13 | TCU | 38 | vs | 61 | / 54 | BYU | 28 | 171 | 14.9% | / 24.1% |
2011/11/12 | 105 | / 104 | Idaho | 7 | at | 56 | / 53 | BYU | 42 | 157 | 84.3% | / 83.3% |
2011/11/19 | 110 | / 102 | New Mexico St. | 7 | at | 45 | / 49 | BYU | 42 | 167 | 87.2% | / 85.2% |
2011/12/03 | 39 | / 47 | BYU | 41 | at | 74 | / 79 | Hawaii | 20 | 170 | 69.8% | / 63.0% |
2011/12/30 | 33 | / 50 | Tulsa | -- | vs | 37 | / 47 | BYU | -- | -- | 48.6% | / 52.8% |
Tulsa Golden Hurricane Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/03 | 47 | / 57 | Tulsa | 14 | at | 7 | / 6 | Oklahoma | 47 | 191 | 11.7% | / 14.4% |
2011/09/10 | 60 | / 60 | Tulsa | 31 | at | 110 | / 108 | Tulane | 3 | 174 | 76.2% | / 85.3% |
2011/09/18 | 15 | / 9 | Oklahoma St. | 59 | at | 55 | / 58 | Tulsa | 33 | 202 | 33.9% | / 29.3% |
2011/09/24 | 52 | / 54 | Tulsa | 21 | at | 2 | / 5 | Boise St. | 41 | 162 | 6.9% | / 10.2% |
2011/10/01 | 108 | / 113 | North Texas | 24 | at | 54 | / 58 | Tulsa | 41 | 166 | 90.1% | / 87.8% |
2011/10/15 | 114 | / 115 | UAB | 20 | at | 49 | / 59 | Tulsa | 37 | 190 | 92.5% | / 85.3% |
2011/10/22 | 51 | / 59 | Tulsa | 38 | at | 97 | / 95 | Rice | 20 | 180 | 71.2% | / 77.4% |
2011/10/29 | 54 | / 62 | SMU | 7 | at | 49 | / 53 | Tulsa | 38 | 184 | 64.7% | / 57.6% |
2011/11/03 | 41 | / 49 | Tulsa | 24 | at | 51 | / 62 | UCF | 17 | 151 | 51.0% | / 50.0% |
2011/11/12 | 89 | / 84 | Marshall | 17 | at | 40 | / 44 | Tulsa | 59 | 187 | 80.6% | / 80.5% |
2011/11/19 | 30 | / 46 | Tulsa | 57 | at | 83 | / 92 | UTEP | 28 | 172 | 78.3% | / 78.1% |
2011/11/25 | 27 | / 24 | Houston | 48 | at | 30 | / 50 | Tulsa | 16 | 190 | 46.9% | / 52.9% |
2011/12/30 | 33 | / 50 | Tulsa | -- | vs | 37 | / 47 | BYU | -- | -- | 51.4% | / 47.2% |
12. Hyundai Sun Bowl
Saturday, December 31 at 2:00 PM
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7 - 4; 5 - 3 ACC)
vs
Utah Utes (6 - 5; 4 - 5 Pac-12)
vs
Utah Utes (6 - 5; 4 - 5 Pac-12)
GUGS Score: 57.9
Justin
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.570 | 51 | 0.512 | 66 | 24.7 | 20 | 22.0 | 82 | 156.3 | 114 |
Utah Utes | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.652 | 32 | 0.510 | 67 | 19.8 | 55 | 15.4 | 23 | 163.4 | 80 |
Here we have our first quality BCS/non-BCS matchup of the bowl season, a scenario that is quite familiar to the Utes. While this squad isn't as dominant as Utah teams of recent years, they still have a solid defense that ranks in the top 25. Georgia Tech is still Georgia Tech: lots of offense, just enough defense, and a slow pace. This game might not be as fast or as high-scoring as the BYU/Tulsa game, but it will pit a top offense against a top defense. TFG says the Utah defense will be just good enough to slow down the Yellow Jacket offense, but only barely. Utah 33, Georgia Tech 31 (58.6%); 159 plays.
Eddie
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.655 | 45 | 0.531 | 44 | 20.6 | 23 | 16.8 | 69 | 163.4 | 100 |
Utah Utes | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.712 | 39 | 0.471 | 86 | 17.0 | 48 | 12.0 | 24 | 165.6 | 77 |
I'm going to pretend that Justin is calling the ACC a non-BCS conference and move on. The Yellow Jacket defense is consistently bad at 14.3 +/- 5.0 PPH, but their 33.8 +/- 26.4 PPH offense is actually a slightly less consistent version of Boise State. Utah is on the other end of the spectrum defensively with a 1.0 +/- 22.1 PPH efficiency. When they're on, they're very good, but they've been known to lay an egg or four. With that in mind, the matchup here should be between the Yellow Jacket offense and the Ute defense. RBA says that Georgia Tech should win, 28-24, with 61.0% confidence, but we know how ACC picks go.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/10 | 56 | / 48 | Georgia Tech | 49 | at | 97 | / 98 | Middle Tenn. | 21 | 159 | 66.4% | / 88.0% |
2011/09/17 | 86 | / 88 | Kansas | 24 | at | 43 | / 42 | Georgia Tech | 66 | 152 | 81.0% | / 79.8% |
2011/09/24 | 42 | / 46 | North Carolina | 28 | at | 37 | / 38 | Georgia Tech | 35 | 148 | 64.9% | / 53.3% |
2011/10/01 | 38 | / 38 | Georgia Tech | 45 | at | 58 | / 83 | North Carolina St. | 35 | 163 | 57.3% | / 62.8% |
2011/10/08 | 57 | / 63 | Maryland | 16 | at | 34 | / 35 | Georgia Tech | 21 | 168 | 73.4% | / 52.8% |
2011/10/15 | 31 | / 38 | Georgia Tech | 21 | at | 85 | / 86 | Virginia | 24 | 148 | 74.1% | / 77.6% |
2011/10/22 | 36 | / 43 | Georgia Tech | 7 | at | 27 | / 63 | Miami-FL | 24 | 144 | 29.1% | / 31.7% |
2011/10/29 | 21 | / 10 | Clemson | 17 | at | 41 | / 39 | Georgia Tech | 31 | 162 | 44.9% | / 37.8% |
2011/11/10 | 12 | / 23 | Virginia Tech | 37 | at | 37 | / 40 | Georgia Tech | 26 | 147 | 35.8% | / 36.3% |
2011/11/19 | 40 | / 39 | Georgia Tech | 38 | at | 88 | / 85 | Duke | 31 | 163 | 77.9% | / 76.6% |
2011/11/26 | 19 | / 12 | Georgia | 31 | at | 44 | / 43 | Georgia Tech | 17 | 149 | 31.7% | / 24.0% |
2011/12/31 | 32 | / 39 | Utah | -- | vs | 51 | / 45 | Georgia Tech | -- | -- | 41.4% | / 61.0% |
Utah Utes Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/10 | 23 | / 41 | Utah | 14 | at | 27 | / 26 | USC | 23 | 170 | 38.5% | / 46.5% |
2011/09/17 | 32 | / 32 | Utah | 54 | at | 42 | / 54 | BYU | 10 | 175 | 47.5% | / 35.3% |
2011/10/01 | 56 | / 41 | Washington | 31 | at | 16 | / 31 | Utah | 14 | 148 | 82.3% | / 63.8% |
2011/10/08 | 32 | / 11 | Arizona St. | 35 | at | 31 | / 34 | Utah | 14 | 168 | 60.4% | / 47.4% |
2011/10/15 | 37 | / 37 | Utah | 26 | at | 34 | / 40 | Pittsburgh | 14 | 170 | 39.5% | / 46.7% |
2011/10/22 | 32 | / 35 | Utah | 10 | at | 63 | / 53 | California | 34 | 148 | 59.7% | / 69.9% |
2011/10/29 | 59 | / 60 | Oregon St. | 8 | at | 42 | / 41 | Utah | 27 | 160 | 69.5% | / 82.8% |
2011/11/05 | 32 | / 39 | Utah | 34 | at | 49 | / 45 | Arizona | 21 | 165 | 52.6% | / 44.3% |
2011/11/12 | 66 | / 77 | UCLA | 6 | at | 32 | / 35 | Utah | 31 | 148 | 71.2% | / 76.3% |
2011/11/19 | 28 | / 34 | Utah | 30 | at | 82 | / 75 | Washington St. | 27 | 179 | 79.8% | / 80.4% |
2011/11/25 | 101 | / 91 | Colorado | 17 | at | 29 | / 38 | Utah | 14 | 149 | 86.6% | / 79.9% |
2011/12/31 | 32 | / 39 | Utah | -- | vs | 51 | / 45 | Georgia Tech | -- | -- | 58.6% | / 39.0% |
11. AT&T Cotton Bowl
Friday, January 6 at 8:00 PM
Arkansas Razorbacks (9 - 2; 6 - 2 SEC)
vs
Kansas State Wildcats (9 - 2; 7 - 2 Big XII)
vs
Kansas State Wildcats (9 - 2; 7 - 2 Big XII)
GUGS Score: 58.0
Eddie
Arkansas Razorbacks | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.940 | 9 | 0.566 | 1 | 23.7 | 9 | 11.5 | 20 | 165.5 | 78 |
Kansas State Wildcats | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.789 | 27 | 0.530 | 50 | 22.5 | 14 | 14.9 | 54 | 166.4 | 66 |
You could argue that both of these teams should be playing in BCS bowls rather than Michigan and Virginia Tech, but this is the way the system is laid out. The Razorbacks were roasted by LSU and Alabama by a margin of 24 points a piece, but that's more of an indication of the top two teams' quality, rather than the Hogs'. The Razorback offense is a strong 30.9 +/- 14.3 PPH, but they've had to be thanks to a 1.6 +/- 19.8 PPH defense that can't seem to stop the power running game. The Wildcats have a similar profile, spreading the field with Collin Klein to the tune of 32.2 +/- 19.5 PPH and surrendering points in droves with a 2.1 +/- 25.6 PPH defense. Although the profiles are the same, the Wildcats are less consistent on both sides of the ball. We can expect Arkansas to put up a bunch of points, but K-State has no such guarantee. RBA picks Arkansas by more than two touchdowns, 41-24, with 65.7% confidence.
Justin
Arkansas Razorbacks | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.804 | 11 | 0.634 | 7 | 30.3 | 6 | 17.2 | 38 | 169.5 | 38 |
Kansas State Wildcats | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2011 | 0.638 | 34 | 0.571 | 42 | 26.7 | 11 | 21.3 | 74 | 161.1 | 98 |
This game can only be described as "the best of the rest." Arkansas's only two losses came to Alabama and LSU. Kansas State's only two losses came to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. We have the third-best team in the SEC pitted against the third-best team in the Big XII. So why doesn't this game rank higher? Three words: the Wildcat defense. Specifically, the lack of defense on the part of Kansas State. The Razorbacks have a 3.6 PPH advantage on offense and a 4.1 PPH advantage on defense. Look for Arkansas to pile on the points and run roughshod over the Wildcats. Kansas State will still find a way into the end zone, but they simply won't be able to keep up with the Razorbacks. This will be a quick, high-scoring game between good top-tier teams. Just don't expect it to be close. Arkansas 42, Kansas St. 36 (69.9%); 165 plays.
Arkansas Razorbacks Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/10 | 116 | / 114 | New Mexico | 3 | at | 13 | / 12 | Arkansas | 52 | 173 | 98.5% | / 97.3% |
2011/09/17 | 72 | / 78 | Troy | 28 | at | 10 | / 13 | Arkansas | 38 | 189 | 92.1% | / 86.7% |
2011/09/24 | 12 | / 19 | Arkansas | 14 | at | 1 | / 2 | Alabama | 38 | 145 | 13.9% | / 25.3% |
2011/10/01 | 12 | / 14 | Texas A&M | 38 | vs | 13 | / 16 | Arkansas | 42 | 208 | 48.4% | / 51.6% |
2011/10/08 | 26 | / 22 | Auburn | 14 | at | 17 | / 12 | Arkansas | 38 | 178 | 64.6% | / 63.1% |
2011/10/22 | 11 | / 15 | Arkansas | 29 | at | 74 | / 71 | Mississippi | 24 | 161 | 80.1% | / 82.9% |
2011/10/29 | 15 | / 18 | Arkansas | 31 | at | 83 | / 45 | Vanderbilt | 28 | 166 | 80.4% | / 76.9% |
2011/11/05 | 17 | / 13 | South Carolina | 28 | at | 22 | / 14 | Arkansas | 44 | 159 | 50.2% | / 41.8% |
2011/11/12 | 43 | / 39 | Tennessee | 7 | at | 18 | / 9 | Arkansas | 49 | 161 | 70.8% | / 56.8% |
2011/11/19 | 39 | / 33 | Mississippi St. | 17 | at | 12 | / 8 | Arkansas | 44 | 173 | 69.7% | / 60.8% |
2011/11/25 | 9 | / 10 | Arkansas | 17 | at | 2 | / 2 | LSU | 41 | 149 | 21.8% | / 22.7% |
2012/01/06 | 34 | / 27 | Kansas St. | -- | vs | 11 | / 9 | Arkansas | -- | -- | 69.9% | / 65.7% |
Kansas State Wildcats Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011/09/17 | 104 | / 106 | Kent St. | 0 | at | 57 | / 49 | Kansas St. | 37 | 153 | 89.0% | / 83.5% |
2011/09/24 | 38 | / 41 | Kansas St. | 28 | at | 15 | / 63 | Miami-FL | 24 | 144 | 25.3% | / 44.9% |
2011/10/01 | 46 | / 49 | Baylor | 35 | at | 36 | / 43 | Kansas St. | 36 | 168 | 68.7% | / 57.8% |
2011/10/08 | 23 | / 30 | Missouri | 17 | at | 35 | / 37 | Kansas St. | 24 | 161 | 49.3% | / 45.4% |
2011/10/15 | 30 | / 32 | Kansas St. | 41 | at | 43 | / 43 | Texas Tech | 34 | 193 | 48.6% | / 45.2% |
2011/10/22 | 33 | / 29 | Kansas St. | 59 | at | 87 | / 92 | Kansas | 21 | 167 | 73.3% | / 83.0% |
2011/10/29 | 6 | / 5 | Oklahoma | 58 | at | 30 | / 37 | Kansas St. | 17 | 162 | 32.2% | / 18.5% |
2011/11/05 | 35 | / 34 | Kansas St. | 45 | at | 10 | / 7 | Oklahoma St. | 52 | 181 | 24.6% | / 38.9% |
2011/11/12 | 20 | / 21 | Texas A&M | 50 | at | 38 | / 32 | Kansas St. | 53 | 206 | 40.8% | / 41.7% |
2011/11/19 | 34 | / 30 | Kansas St. | 17 | at | 22 | / 24 | Texas | 13 | 156 | 39.4% | / 36.1% |
2011/12/03 | 70 | / 74 | Iowa St. | 23 | at | 32 | / 27 | Kansas St. | 30 | 160 | 71.2% | / 75.7% |
2012/01/06 | 34 | / 27 | Kansas St. | -- | vs | 11 | / 9 | Arkansas | -- | -- | 30.1% | / 34.3% |
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