Week 19: Monday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Mon Dec 31 20:58:04 2012

LSU	24	Clemson	25	Final
USC	7	Georgia Tech	21	Final
Tulsa	31	Iowa St.	17	Final
Vanderbilt	38	North Carolina St.	24	Final

Week 18: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 29 23:44:04 2012

Navy	28	Arizona St.	62	Final
TCU	16	Michigan St.	17	Final
Texas	31	Oregon St.	27	Final
Air Force	14	Rice	33	Final
West Virginia	14	Syracuse	38	Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part VI

Today is Part VI of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
  Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Northwestern Wildcats
• Chick-fil-A Bowl
  Clemson Tigers vs LSU Tigers
• Capital One Bowl
  Georgia Bulldogs vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
• Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
  Michigan State Spartans vs TCU Horned Frogs
• Valero Alamo Bowl
  Oregon State Beavers vs Texas Longhorns

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 18: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Dec 28 22:28:05 2012

Texas Tech	34	Minnesota	31	Final
Ohio	45	LA-Monroe	14	Final
Virginia Tech	13	Rutgers	10	Final

Week 18: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Dec 27 23:14:05 2012

UCLA	26	Baylor	49	Final
SJSU	29	Bowling Green	20	Final
Duke	34	Cincinnati	48	Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part V

Today is Part V of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• New Era Pinstripe Bowl
  Syracuse Orange vs West Virginia Mountaineers
• AutoZone Liberty Bowl
  Iowa State Cyclones vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane
• Russell Athletic Bowl
  Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Virginia Tech Hokies
• BBVA Compass Bowl
  Mississippi Rebels vs Pittsburgh Panthers
• Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
  Baylor Bears vs UCLA Bruins

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 18: Wednesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Wed Dec 26 20:58:04 2012

Western Kentucky

21

Central Michigan

24

Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part IV

Today is Part IV of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
  Rice Owls vs Air Force Falcons
• Hyundai Sun Bowl
  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs USC Trojans
• GoDaddy.com Bowl
  Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Kent State Golden Flashes
• Discover Orange Bowl
  Florida State Seminoles vs Northern Illinois Huskies
• Allstate Sugar Bowl
  Florida Gators vs Louisville Cardinals

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 18: Monday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Mon Dec 24 21:28:05 2012

SMU

43

Fresno St.

10

Final

Week 17: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 22 16:58:04 2012

Washington	26	Boise St.	28	Final
LA-Lafayette	43	East Carolina	34	Final

Week 17: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Dec 21 19:58:04 2012

UCF

38

Ball St.

17

Final

Week 17: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Dec 20 21:28:04 2012

SDSU

6

BYU

23

Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part III

Today is Part III of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
  Fresno State Bulldogs vs SMU Mustangs
• Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
  North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores
• R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
  East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
• MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
  Boise State Broncos vs Washington Huskies
• San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl
  BYU Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs

Full previews after the jump ....

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part II

Today is Part II of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Belk Bowl
  Cincinnati Bearcats vs Duke Blue Devils
• Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
  Bowling Green Falcons vs San Jose State Spartans
• Heart of Dallas Bowl
  Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Purdue Boilermakers
• AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
  Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Ohio Bobcats
• Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
  Ball State Cardinals vs UCF Knights

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 16: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 15 16:58:03 2012

Utah St.	41	Toledo	15	1:42 4th
Nevada	48	Arizona	49	Final

2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part I

Today is Part I of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Little Caesar's Bowl
  Central Michigan Chippewas vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
• Meineke Car Care of Texas Bowl
  Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders
• Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
  Arizona State Sun Devils vs Navy Midshipmen
• Gildan New Mexico Bowl
  Arizona Wildcats vs Nevada Wolf Pack
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
  Toledo Rockets vs Utah State Aggies

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 15: Saturday Predictions

102 Army 34  71 Navy 42

114 Army 28  84 Navy 31

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Texas State (0.115); Louisville (0.107); Pittsburgh (0.105); West Virginia (0.052); Wisconsin (0.049)

Biggest drops: Kansas (-0.071); South Florida (-0.054); Rutgers (-0.053); Georgia Tech (-0.038); Nebraska (-0.033)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Top 25 -- TFG

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.968	0.627	17	38.0	1	9.7	1	148.8	124
2	--	Notre Dame	0.888	0.606	20	25.8	24	11.2	2	157.8	103
3	--	LSU	0.878	0.665	7	26.9	16	12.2	3	162.3	83
4	--	Florida	0.873	0.673	4	26.7	18	12.3	4	156.7	109
5	--	Oregon	0.867	0.551	45	31.8	3	15.0	11	180.8	8
6	--	Texas A&M	0.854	0.666	6	27.7	12	13.7	6	185.4	4
7	--	Florida St.	0.840	0.518	59	29.6	7	15.2	12	156.6	110
8	--	Stanford	0.829	0.560	41	26.8	17	14.3	10	160.7	90
9	--	Oklahoma	0.828	0.638	13	25.9	23	13.8	7	175.6	13
10	+2	Wisconsin	0.828	0.567	36	32.6	2	17.4	30	156.3	111
11	+3	Georgia	0.819	0.588	30	29.6	6	16.2	20	162.9	76
12	-2	Boise St.	0.811	0.394	95	27.6	13	15.4	14	156.1	112
13	-2	South Carolina	0.807	0.603	23	28.0	10	15.8	17	156.9	107
14	-1	Oklahoma St.	0.789	0.630	15	26.2	21	15.5	15	184.0	6
15	--	Kansas St.	0.788	0.606	21	31.7	4	18.8	41	154.8	117
16	--	Michigan	0.777	0.567	37	29.7	5	18.1	36	151.9	123
17	+1	USC	0.763	0.565	38	29.0	8	18.2	37	162.3	82
18	+1	Ohio St.	0.758	0.533	52	28.5	9	18.0	34	162.0	86
19	-2	Nebraska	0.740	0.642	10	26.4	20	17.3	28	168.4	43
20	--	Michigan St.	0.735	0.605	22	19.9	70	13.3	5	163.0	75
21	+1	BYU	0.730	0.443	72	21.1	57	14.2	9	162.9	78
22	+2	Cincinnati	0.722	0.503	62	23.0	43	15.7	16	166.8	52
23	--	TCU	0.721	0.581	32	23.0	41	15.8	18	163.3	70
24	-3	Texas	0.718	0.592	27	26.4	19	18.2	38	159.5	95
25	--	Penn State	0.712	0.537	51	19.9	69	13.9	8	169.8	35

Rankings through games of 2012-12-02

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

Well, here we are: the Alabama/Notre Dame matchup we predicted back in week eight. The SEC title game was a bit closer than we projected, but weird plays like a FG blocked and returned for a touchdown -- along with the ensuing 10-point swing -- can do that. While previous years have been the Year of Non-BCS Teams, this was clearly the Year of the SEC. The SEC holds four of the top six spots in the TFG rankings, and two more in the top 15. The numbers point pretty heavily to yet another Alabama championship, so let's look at some of the other teams.

Notre Dame improved 2.1 PPH on offense, but 3.9 PPH on defense. Even small improvements on defense can yield big results in your win-loss record, and 3.9 PPH is big. Even if Notre Dame hadn't improved their offense at all from last year, they'd be ranked fifth in our top 25 right now.

This year's Oregon team is a slight improvement over last year's model; their offensive efficiency went up 1.9 PPH, and their defense only slipped by 0.3 PPH. Another year of progress along those lines, and they'll be the clear #2 team in the country.

Florida State is good, but ... well, still in the ACC.

Stanford experienced a huge drop-off on offense -- a full 7.7 PPH -- but actually picked it up on defense by 2.4 PPH. That was enough to offset the loss of Andrew Luck, and resulted in only a 0.026 drop in expected win percentage.

Wisconsin has been erratic, winning big against "meh" teams, and losing by a field goal to good teams. Seriously, four of their five losses have been by three points (the fifth was by a touchdown to Ohio State). They're another team that had a big drop-off on offense (6.6 PPH) but clawed some of it back on defense (1.0 PPH).

Boise State entered a rebuilding year, and managed to do pretty well for themselves. They had two losses -- one on the road at Michigan State, and a freak loss to SDSU where the Aztecs got 14 of their 21 points off a kickoff return for a TD and an 8-yard drive off a turnover -- and blew through the rest of their schedule. The Broncos will be moving to the Big East next year, and considering the top Big East team in the TFG rankings is (22) Cincinnati, look for Boise to establish themselves as early favorites.

As for the coming bowl season, watch for our annual bowl previews starting in a few weeks.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	1.000	0.549	14	26.4	2	5.9	1	156.3	124
2	--	Oregon	0.992	0.530	50	27.9	1	11.4	20	177.1	3
3	--	Notre Dame	0.992	0.567	1	18.7	38	7.2	2	164.4	98
4	--	Florida	0.983	0.559	5	18.1	43	8.9	3	161.2	114
5	--	LSU	0.975	0.548	16	22.9	9	9.0	4	160.4	116
6	+1	Texas A&M	0.967	0.555	7	25.9	3	11.3	19	173.7	10
7	-1	Georgia	0.967	0.545	24	23.6	6	11.1	14	160.0	117
8	+1	South Carolina	0.950	0.545	26	23.2	7	9.7	6	158.0	123
9	-1	Kansas St.	0.941	0.532	48	25.6	4	14.2	41	165.6	80
10	+4	Stanford	0.932	0.543	29	20.5	23	10.0	8	167.2	60
11	--	Oklahoma	0.932	0.547	19	22.8	10	11.5	24	172.0	15
12	-2	Oklahoma St.	0.932	0.552	11	22.8	11	14.0	39	174.4	7
13	+3	Wisconsin	0.932	0.532	47	22.2	16	11.2	17	161.7	112
14	-1	Ohio St.	0.924	0.530	49	21.5	20	13.0	30	159.8	118
15	-3	Boise St.	0.915	0.466	93	19.0	31	10.1	10	167.9	52
16	-1	Florida St.	0.878	0.547	17	22.0	17	9.3	5	165.6	82
17	--	USC	0.876	0.535	39	22.7	12	11.5	23	167.0	68
18	--	Clemson	0.875	0.527	56	23.2	8	13.9	38	168.1	48
19	+2	Oregon St.	0.851	0.547	18	17.7	49	10.7	13	170.9	21
20	+2	Michigan	0.851	0.545	23	22.5	15	11.2	18	166.4	73
21	+2	Penn State	0.845	0.539	32	16.6	60	9.8	7	164.5	93
22	+2	Utah St.	0.839	0.494	70	17.5	53	11.5	22	169.0	33
23	-4	Nebraska	0.831	0.534	43	18.8	35	12.1	25	167.1	65
24	NA	BYU	0.822	0.482	77	16.7	59	10.2	11	168.9	35
25	--	Michigan St.	0.821	0.545	22	15.4	74	10.0	9	166.9	69

Rankings through games of 2012-12-02

New entries: BYU.

Dropped out: Rutgers.

We arrive at the "end" of the regular season (only Army-Navy remaining) with few surprises.  Alabama finishes the regular season in the top spot thanks to the #1 defense and #2 offense.  Oregon and Notre Dame finish tied for second thanks to the #1 offense and #2 defense, respectively.  Looking forward to the national championship game, RBA will favor the Crimson Tide; the only question is how much.

SEC runner-up Georgia finishes tied with Texas A&M for #6 behind #4 Florida and #5 LSU.  Georgia fans should thank their lucky stars that SEC schedule makers continue to push the easy button for the Bulldogs.  They cakewalked through Auburn and Ole Miss from the west as the Gators played LSU and Texas A&M and the Gamecocks played LSU and Arkansas without a healthy Marcus Lattimore.  You have to wonder if the Bulldogs were really the best team in the SEC East.

Personally, I'm most surprised by Stanford finishing the regular season in the top 10.  There's no way I would have expected a team to lose Andrew Luck, beat Oregon, nearly beat Notre Dame on the road, and find their way into the Rose Bowl.  Much like Texas A&M beating Alabama, that's why they play the games.

Our mid-major of the year remains Boise State, but kudos to Utah State finishing the season at #22.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Arkansas St. (0.065); Pittsburgh (0.038); Texas State (0.034); West Virginia (0.028); Hawaii (0.023)

Biggest drops: Middle Tenn. (-0.060); South Florida (-0.043); Kansas (-0.035); Nebraska (-0.029); South Alabama (-0.019)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 2 00:28:03 2012

Georgia	28	Alabama	32	Final
Middle Tenn.	0	Arkansas St.	45	Final
Oklahoma St.	34	Baylor	41	Final
Cincinnati	34	Connecticut	17	Final
LA-Lafayette	35	FL-Atlantic	21	Final
Georgia Tech	15	Florida St.	21	Final
South Alabama	7	Hawaii	23	Final
Texas	24	Kansas St.	42	Final
Wisconsin	70	Nebraska	31	Final
Boise St.	27	Nevada	21	Final
Pittsburgh	27	South Florida	3	Final
New Mexico St.	28	Texas State	66	Final
Oklahoma	24	TCU	17	Final
UCF	27	Tulsa	33	Final
Kansas	10	West Virginia	59	Final

Week 14: Saturday Predictions

1 Alabama 42  14 Georgia 29

1 Alabama 31   6 Georgia 17

58 Arkansas St. 37  88 Middle Tenn. 32

63 Arkansas St. 34  91 Middle Tenn. 24

36 Baylor 37  13 Oklahoma St. 43

34 Baylor 35  10 Oklahoma St. 41

69 Connecticut 25  24 Cincinnati 32

76 Connecticut 17  32 Cincinnati 31

113 FL-Atlantic 32  65 LA-Lafayette 41

112 FL-Atlantic 24  69 LA-Lafayette 35

7 Florida St. 45  56 Georgia Tech 34

15 Florida St. 38  47 Georgia Tech 21

114 Hawaii 35 117 South Alabama 34

110 Hawaii 35 116 South Alabama 24

15 Kansas St. 38  21 Texas 35

8 Kansas St. 41  30 Texas 24

17 Nebraska 34  12 Wisconsin 37

19 Nebraska 28  16 Wisconsin 24

64 Nevada 31  10 Boise St. 42

64 Nevada 24  12 Boise St. 34

70 South Florida 28  29 Pittsburgh 34

79 South Florida 24  49 Pittsburgh 25

23 TCU 31   9 Oklahoma 35

33 TCU 28  11 Oklahoma 31

106 Texas State 40 123 New Mexico St. 32

111 Texas State 34 124 New Mexico St. 21

44 Tulsa 33  33 UCF 35

50 Tulsa 27  36 UCF 24

38 West Virginia 42 102 Kansas 30

46 West Virginia 42 100 Kansas 17

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Wisconsin Badgers vs Nebraska Cornhuskers

GUGS Score: 75.3

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
17	Nebraska	0.770	0.616	18	26.1	22	16.1	20	168.0	47
12	Wisconsin	0.806	0.553	42	30.1	5	17.1	27	156.0	114

Where's the SEC title game? GUGS shades towards close games, and TFG thinks the Dawgs are going to get blown out (no offense, Georgia fans). This, however, should be closer. The last time they played this year it was at Nebraska, and the Cornhuskers eeked out a 3-point victory; that kind of loss seems to be Wisconsin's MO this year, with four losses by exactly a field goal (their other loss was to Ohio State by a touchdown). Wisconsin's lost a lot of offense from last year, but has still been (opponent-and-pace-adjusted) very efficient. Nebraska hasn't been a slouch, either, and with both defenses in the "good" but not "outstanding" category, this looks to be a close, relatively high-scoring affair between two top-20 teams. The Badgers will try and slow things down, while the Huskers will pick up the pace a bit. It'll be a good game with no clear favorite, but since Nebraska doesn't have home field advantage this time, look for the Badgers to eek out a close win in the end. The predicted margin is, fittingly, a field goal. Wisconsin 37, Nebraska 34 (55.5%); 161 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
19	Nebraska	0.863	0.533	45	18.7	35	11.5	23	167.1	65
16	Wisconsin	0.882	0.531	47	20.8	22	11.0	16	161.6	112

What?  No Alabama-Georgia?  If you must know, it's because RBA doesn't think that game is going to be very competitive (31-17, Alabama).  On the other hand, Nebraska-Wisconsin should be a pretty good game, even if not matching two teams in the BCS top three.  The formerly unstoppable Badger offense has proven itself inconsistent in 2012, notching a 32.6 +/- 23.6 PPH performance.  Their defense isn't Alabama or Notre Dame, but a 4.8 +/- 12.4 PPH very respectable.  The Huskers sport a similarly effective defense at 3.6 +/- 16.0 PPH.  The key in this game is the Nebraska offensive consistency.  They haven't always been flashy, but the Cornhuskers 21.9 +/- 6.3 PPH demonstrates a predictability that RBA likes.  RBA says that Nebraska wins the Big Ten, 28-24, with 58.8% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane

GUGS Score: 58.5

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
50	Tulsa	0.609	0.466	92	16.1	66	14.1	43	171.9	16
36	UCF	0.713	0.461	97	18.4	38	14.1	40	163.5	104

For what it's worth, history is on my side.  Tulsa beat UCF three weeks ago, 23-21.  UCF's offense simply isn't consistent.  A 30.7 +/- 24.6 PPH performance will only look good because Tulsa isn't very good on defense at 11.2 +/- 5.8 PPH.  The only reason why Tulsa will win this game is because UCF's 10.0 +/- 8.3 PPH defense is even worse.  It will be ugly, but expect a 27-24 Tulsa victory with 54.4% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
44	Tulsa	0.598	0.421	81	20.0	70	17.1	28	178.3	10
33	UCF	0.636	0.354	114	24.9	27	19.9	50	156.9	108

I'm not sure a two-point victory at home is really having history on your side, but whatever. This game is a tale of two teams with opposing strengths and weaknesses: Tulsa has no offense, but a relatively solid D, while UCF has a good offense, but a middling defense. These teams are also on opposite ends of the tempo spectrum; Tulsa will want to go-go-go, while UCF is a more patient team. This will be close, but TFG thinks the Knights will get revenge for their loss a few weeks ago. UCF 35, Tulsa 33 (54.0%); 167 plays.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	10.68 -  4.32	71.17%
TFG	10.65 -  4.35	71.03%

Week 14: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Nov 30 21:28:04 2012

Northern Ill.	44	Kent St.	37	Final
UCLA	24	Stanford	27	Final

Week 14: Friday Predictions

66 Kent St. 31  27 Northern Ill. 38

62 Kent St. 28  59 Northern Ill. 27

8 Stanford 38  46 UCLA 30

14 Stanford 31  27 UCLA 21

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14 RBA Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,Western Athletic

Projected conference champions

• Pac-12: Stanford
• SEC: Alabama
• Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
• Western Athletic: Utah St.

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,Western Athletic

Projected conference champions

• Pac-12: Stanford
• SEC: Alabama
• Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
• Western Athletic: Utah St.

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Nov 29 20:58:04 2012

Louisville

20

Rutgers

17

Final

Week 14: Thursday Predictions

30 Rutgers 33  48 Louisville 32

20 Rutgers 28  52 Louisville 24

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14 RBA Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Mountain West

Projected conference champions

• Big Ten: Ohio St.
• Big XII: Kansas St.
• Mid-American: Northern Ill.
• Mountain West: Boise St.

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Mountain West

Projected conference champions

• Big Ten: Nebraska
• Big XII: Kansas St.
• Mid-American: Northern Ill.
• Mountain West: Boise St.

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 RBA Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.
• Big East: Rutgers
• Conference-USA: Tulsa
• Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.
• Big East: Rutgers
• Conference-USA: UCF
• Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Locks

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.924	13	0.530	49	21.5	20	13.0	30	159.8	118

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2012/09/01	92	Miami-OH	10	at	23	Ohio St.	56	193	85.8%
2012/09/08	62	UCF	16	at	20	Ohio St.	31	161	71.7%
2012/09/15	50	California	28	at	20	Ohio St.	35	176	71.4%
2012/09/22	115	UAB	15	at	19	Ohio St.	29	165	93.1%
2012/09/29	21	Ohio St.	17	at	19	Michigan St.	16	156	42.7%
2012/10/06	20	Nebraska	38	at	11	Ohio St.	63	166	51.1%
2012/10/13	9	Ohio St.	52	at	82	Indiana	49	195	89.8%
2012/10/20	63	Purdue	22	at	17	Ohio St.	29	164	78.1%
2012/10/27	12	Ohio St.	35	at	26	Penn State	23	174	48.8%
2012/11/03	90	Illinois	22	at	13	Ohio St.	52	175	84.9%
2012/11/17	14	Ohio St.	21	at	19	Wisconsin	14	169	43.3%
2012/11/24	22	Michigan	21	at	13	Ohio St.	26	142	61.7%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.992	3	0.567	1	18.7	36	7.2	2	164.4	99

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2012/09/01	75	Navy	10	vs	20	Notre Dame	50	150	77.7%
2012/09/08	73	Purdue	17	at	17	Notre Dame	20	172	79.4%
2012/09/15	6	Notre Dame	20	at	15	Michigan St.	3	165	49.1%
2012/09/22	22	Michigan	6	at	13	Notre Dame	13	133	50.1%
2012/10/06	9	Notre Dame	41	vs	56	Miami-FL	3	154	80.4%
2012/10/13	13	Stanford	13	at	7	Notre Dame	20	165	50.0%
2012/10/20	28	BYU	14	at	6	Notre Dame	17	145	60.6%
2012/10/27	5	Notre Dame	30	at	8	Oklahoma	13	166	47.3%
2012/11/03	41	Pittsburgh	26	at	7	Notre Dame	29	199	86.7%
2012/11/10	3	Notre Dame	21	at	98	Boston College	6	150	93.5%
2012/11/17	91	Wake Forest	0	at	4	Notre Dame	38	152	91.4%
2012/11/24	3	Notre Dame	22	at	17	USC	13	142	52.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Two teams have finished out their season undefeated and they ... will not face each other for the title. Thanks to Tattoo-gate, the Ohio State Buckeyes are banned from postseason play this year, and won't even get a chance to play for the Big Ten title. In a way this might actually be good for Ohio State, since TFG ranks them just behind 2006 Boise State and 2004 Utah in terms of undefeated regular season teams that didn't or couldn't play for a title. An interesting footnote: the coach of that 2004 Utah squad with the top-notch offense and middling defense? Urban Meyer.

This brings us to Notre Dame. I've seen many stories talking about how the Irish won't stack up to the SEC champion and will be exposed as frauds in the title game. I will say that if Notre Dame plays Alabama, they will be significant underdogs. But if somehow they get matched up with Georgia, that will be much more of a fair fight. Notre Dame has good wins over (8) Stanford, (9) Oklahoma, (16) Michigan, (18) USC, and (20) Michigan State. TFG ranks their SOS at #21, which is pretty even with Alabama (#19) and miles ahead of Georgia (#50).

The clear favorite for the title right now, though, is Alabama. TFG has them as 90% likely to beat Georgia, and currently puts them as 82.1% against Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide have the top-rated offense and the top-rated defense in FBS. The Irish have the second-best defense, but lag behind both Alabama and Georgia in offense; they've been able to move the ball, but have had trouble getting it into the end zone (see: five FGs against USC, including three from inside the 12).

Georgia has the most difficult path, though. They're heavy underdogs to Alabama (only 10% likely to win), and as it stands right now they'd have a 1-in-3 shot against Notre Dame. This adds up to a 3.4% chance of the Bulldogs taking the BCS title. Georgia has the weakest defense of the three contenders, and definitely has the weakest SOS. The only TFG top 25 the Bulldogs have faced this year are (4) Florida and (11) South Carolina. In their win over Florida, the Gators coughed up the ball six times, and the Bulldogs got 10 of their 17 points on drives that started inside the Gator 30 thanks to Florida turnovers. That type of luck won't strike twice, so Georgia will really need to play better defense to slow down Alabama.

In short, here are your current BCS title odds:

Winner	Odds
Alabama	73.9%
Notre Dame	22.7%
Georgia	3.4%

Locks

Ohio State Buckeyes*
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.762	19	0.530	52	28.8	8	18.1	37	162.1	83

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2012/09/01	80	Miami-OH	10	at	22	Ohio St.	56	193	89.0%
2012/09/08	52	UCF	16	at	15	Ohio St.	31	161	83.7%
2012/09/15	47	California	28	at	13	Ohio St.	35	176	84.0%
2012/09/22	114	UAB	15	at	16	Ohio St.	29	165	97.4%
2012/09/29	19	Ohio St.	17	at	16	Michigan St.	16	156	35.5%
2012/10/06	18	Nebraska	38	at	20	Ohio St.	63	166	58.2%
2012/10/13	14	Ohio St.	52	at	86	Indiana	49	195	83.5%
2012/10/20	68	Purdue	22	at	19	Ohio St.	29	164	84.5%
2012/10/27	19	Ohio St.	35	at	23	Penn State	23	174	41.5%
2012/11/03	98	Illinois	22	at	17	Ohio St.	52	175	90.4%
2012/11/17	19	Ohio St.	21	at	10	Wisconsin	14	169	38.7%
2012/11/24	14	Michigan	21	at	19	Ohio St.	26	142	45.4%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.887	2	0.606	21	25.7	24	11.3	2	157.6	103

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2012/09/01	59	Navy	10	vs	16	Notre Dame	50	150	74.7%
2012/09/08	71	Purdue	17	at	13	Notre Dame	20	172	90.6%
2012/09/15	16	Notre Dame	20	at	9	Michigan St.	3	165	30.7%
2012/09/22	24	Michigan	6	at	11	Notre Dame	13	133	74.3%
2012/10/06	11	Notre Dame	41	vs	44	Miami-FL	3	154	78.0%
2012/10/13	10	Stanford	13	at	4	Notre Dame	20	165	65.5%
2012/10/20	31	BYU	14	at	4	Notre Dame	17	145	84.8%
2012/10/27	6	Notre Dame	30	at	3	Oklahoma	13	166	32.0%
2012/11/03	36	Pittsburgh	26	at	3	Notre Dame	29	199	83.9%
2012/11/10	4	Notre Dame	21	at	97	Boston College	6	150	93.5%
2012/11/17	94	Wake Forest	0	at	5	Notre Dame	38	152	94.0%
2012/11/24	2	Notre Dame	22	at	18	USC	13	142	71.1%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25