2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part VII

Today is Part VII of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Allstate Sugar Bowl
  Michigan Wolverines vs Virginia Tech Hokies
• Outback Bowl
  Georgia Bulldogs vs Michigan State Spartans
• Allstate BCS National Championship Game
  Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers
• Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
  Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Stanford Cardinal
• Rose Bowl Game presented by Visio
  Oregon Ducks vs Wisconsin Badgers

Full previews after the jump ....

5. Allstate Sugar Bowl

Tuesday, January 3 at 8:30 PM

Michigan Wolverines (10 - 2; 6 - 2 Big Ten)
vs
Virginia Tech Hokies (10 - 2; 7 - 2 ACC)

GUGS Score: 71.9

Eddie

Michigan Wolverines
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.886	17	0.542	29	22.8	12	12.0	26	167.8	44

Virginia Tech Hokies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.817	23	0.526	58	17.7	41	11.2	15	158.2	118

RBA doesn't consider either of these teams to be BCS quality teams. (17) Michigan managed to avoid a certain loss against (4) Wisconsin, lost to (19) Michigan State and (32) Iowa, and were really lucky to beat (20) Notre Dame. On the other side of the ball (23) Virginia Tech's signature win is the... (26) Miami Hurricanes? Quit boring everyone! This game may be a good game to watch, but it's criminal that (8) Boise State has to sit at home and watch it play out. There's little doubt that Michigan has improved throughout 2011, especially on defense. At 0.0 +/- 24.5 PPH, they're still prone to surrendering points to stronger teams, but the good news is that Virginia Tech isn't a great team at 0.784 strength and a 22.2 +/- 9.1 PPH offense. The most surprising statistic is that RBA thinks Virginia Tech's 0.0 +/- 26.6 PPH defense is actually worse than Michigan's. With advantages on offense and defense, expect Michigan to run away late, 34-24, with 54.7% probability.

Justin

Michigan Wolverines
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.798	12	0.567	45	28.7	8	16.6	34	160.4	100

Virginia Tech Hokies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.779	16	0.515	64	23.3	25	14.1	9	158.8	106

Oh look, it's another matchup determined by money instead of the quality of the teams. Technically this could have been something more interesting -- at least I assume it could have been, since the rules governing BCS bowl selection are a bit dense -- but Arkansas-Boise State? Yes, please. Instead we get BCS#11 Virginia Tech and BCS#13 Michigan in the Sugar Bowl. This won't be a bad game, per se, but oh for what could have been. This will be a game with two distinctly different feels; Michigan's offense and Tech's defense are each top-10, whereas the Wolverine defense and the Hokie offense are decidedly second-tier. This is going to come down to which side is able to make better plays when Michigan is on offense. This will be a slow game but likely to be moderately high-scoring. TFG gives the slightest of edges to Michigan, though. Michigan 34, Virginia Tech 31 (52.8%); 159 plays.

Michigan Wolverines Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	67	/  88	Western Michigan	10	at	62	/  54	Michigan	34	110	67.8%	/  81.3%
2011/09/10	28	/  30	Notre Dame	31	at	39	/  45	Michigan	35	151	54.9%	/  34.7%
2011/09/17	116	/ 117	Eastern Michigan	3	at	37	/  43	Michigan	31	140	96.3%	/  94.1%
2011/09/24	59	/  56	SDSU	7	at	31	/  39	Michigan	28	162	75.8%	/  58.7%
2011/10/01	79	/  94	Minnesota	0	at	29	/  33	Michigan	58	149	86.3%	/  79.0%
2011/10/08	12	/  25	Michigan	42	at	68	/  79	Northwestern	24	169	77.0%	/  77.0%
2011/10/15	14	/  26	Michigan	14	at	21	/  20	Michigan St.	28	158	42.8%	/  58.8%
2011/10/29	69	/  70	Purdue	14	at	18	/  26	Michigan	36	150	86.9%	/  83.7%
2011/11/05	18	/  28	Michigan	16	at	38	/  27	Iowa	24	153	62.9%	/  39.7%
2011/11/12	21	/  28	Michigan	31	at	46	/  45	Illinois	14	157	63.4%	/  69.4%
2011/11/19	17	/  25	Nebraska	17	at	16	/  21	Michigan	45	163	50.5%	/  47.0%
2011/11/26	17	/  23	Ohio St.	34	at	12	/  15	Michigan	40	146	54.8%	/  53.4%
2012/01/03	16	/  23	Virginia Tech	--	vs	12	/  17	Michigan	--	--	52.8%	/  54.7%

Virginia Tech Hokies Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	9	/  11	Virginia Tech	17	at	72	/  78	East Carolina	10	150	83.3%	/  92.3%
2011/09/17	85	/  84	Arkansas St.	7	at	11	/  10	Virginia Tech	26	163	93.5%	/  94.6%
2011/09/24	11	/  11	Virginia Tech	30	at	99	/ 103	Marshall	10	157	92.2%	/  91.5%
2011/10/01	23	/  10	Clemson	23	at	11	/  19	Virginia Tech	3	162	73.2%	/  62.4%
2011/10/08	29	/  66	Miami-FL	35	at	11	/  24	Virginia Tech	38	146	69.5%	/  75.4%
2011/10/15	13	/  23	Virginia Tech	38	at	71	/  81	Wake Forest	17	167	78.7%	/  82.8%
2011/10/22	88	/  91	Boston College	14	at	12	/  25	Virginia Tech	30	158	93.2%	/  86.4%
2011/10/29	13	/  25	Virginia Tech	14	at	81	/  73	Duke	10	162	81.9%	/  79.9%
2011/11/10	12	/  23	Virginia Tech	37	at	37	/  40	Georgia Tech	26	147	64.2%	/  63.7%
2011/11/17	43	/  48	North Carolina	21	at	13	/  23	Virginia Tech	24	157	70.1%	/  59.9%
2011/11/26	14	/  20	Virginia Tech	38	at	66	/  69	Virginia	0	151	80.1%	/  75.9%
2011/12/03	9	/  23	Virginia Tech	10	vs	35	/  29	Clemson	38	175	72.1%	/  61.5%
2012/01/03	16	/  23	Virginia Tech	--	vs	12	/  17	Michigan	--	--	47.2%	/  45.3%

4. Outback Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 1:00 PM

Georgia Bulldogs (9 - 3; 7 - 2 SEC)
vs
Michigan State Spartans (9 - 3; 7 - 2 Big Ten)

GUGS Score: 76.8

Justin

Georgia Bulldogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.750	20	0.605	20	25.2	15	16.2	29	162.9	85

Michigan State Spartans
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.798	13	0.597	23	23.7	24	13.7	7	163.8	79

While Georgia may have the better losses -- LSU, Boise State, and South Carolina -- the Spartans have a slightly better overall resume according to TFG. On a side note, I'm somewhat disappointed that Georgia didn't beat LSU in the SEC title game, thereby ensuring that the SEC champion would have lost to Boise State ("WHARGGABL! Early-season slip-up! Irrelevant!"). As it is we're got a good matchup between two solid teams. If there's any weakness on the field, it'll be the Georgia defense at 16.2 PPH. The Spartans actually have a top-10 defense at 13.7 PPH -- playing Wisconsin and their top-rated offense twice and only surrendering an average of 23.9 PPH helps -- and a top-25 offense. This will be a close but not particularly quick game, and TFG gives a slight nod to the Spartans. Michigan St. 32, Georgia 31 (56.9%); 163 plays.

Eddie

Georgia Bulldogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.921	12	0.550	11	22.8	11	10.7	10	159.6	114

Michigan State Spartans
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.878	19	0.542	27	20.7	22	11.4	18	167.1	52

RBA has missed four (19) Michigan State picks and three (12) Georgia picks so far this season, so this one makes me a little nervous. The Spartans are respectable on both sides of the ball, but the Bulldogs win the offensive side of ball. Michigan State's 29.5 +/- 17.4 PPH offense is less efficient but more consistent than the Bulldogs' 36.2 +/- 26.7 PPH. Defensively, these two teams are mirror images with Georgia being negligibly more efficient at 1.7 +/- 18.1 PPH, as opposed to Michigan State's 1.7 +/- 19.3 PPH. With that in mind, RBA expects a Georgia victory, 31-24, with 58.0% confidence.

Georgia Bulldogs Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	23	/  24	Georgia	21	vs	2	/   3	Boise St.	35	159	15.1%	/  33.2%
2011/09/10	19	/  19	South Carolina	45	at	21	/  21	Georgia	42	165	63.1%	/  53.4%
2011/09/24	20	/  22	Georgia	27	at	71	/  86	Mississippi	13	169	72.6%	/  77.8%
2011/10/01	44	/  35	Mississippi St.	10	at	21	/  22	Georgia	24	169	75.3%	/  56.7%
2011/10/08	19	/  18	Georgia	20	at	33	/  27	Tennessee	12	152	48.7%	/  46.7%
2011/10/15	17	/  16	Georgia	33	at	96	/  52	Vanderbilt	28	170	87.3%	/  76.0%
2011/10/29	28	/  11	Georgia	24	vs	11	/  16	Florida	20	172	36.2%	/  33.5%
2011/11/05	110	/ 107	New Mexico St.	16	at	27	/  18	Georgia	63	164	94.0%	/  95.5%
2011/11/12	29	/  38	Auburn	7	at	23	/  13	Georgia	45	143	59.4%	/  67.7%
2011/11/19	89	/  60	Kentucky	10	at	15	/  11	Georgia	19	157	88.5%	/  78.1%
2011/11/26	19	/  12	Georgia	31	at	44	/  43	Georgia Tech	17	149	68.3%	/  76.0%
2011/12/03	2	/   2	LSU	42	vs	17	/  12	Georgia	10	168	17.2%	/  18.5%
2012/01/02	13	/  19	Michigan St.	--	vs	20	/  12	Georgia	--	--	43.1%	/  58.0%

Michigan State Spartans Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/10	113	/ 113	FL-Atlantic	0	at	44	/  44	Michigan St.	44	140	95.1%	/  94.2%
2011/09/17	25	/  45	Michigan St.	13	at	31	/  27	Notre Dame	31	164	42.7%	/  46.6%
2011/09/24	95	/ 106	Central Michigan	7	at	32	/  44	Michigan St.	45	151	88.9%	/  82.6%
2011/10/01	25	/  34	Michigan St.	10	at	8	/  17	Ohio St.	7	156	23.9%	/  31.0%
2011/10/15	14	/  26	Michigan	14	at	21	/  20	Michigan St.	28	158	57.2%	/  41.2%
2011/10/22	6	/   4	Wisconsin	31	at	14	/  14	Michigan St.	37	151	42.3%	/  27.3%
2011/10/29	10	/  20	Michigan St.	3	at	19	/  17	Nebraska	24	153	46.6%	/  62.7%
2011/11/05	96	/ 112	Minnesota	24	at	16	/  21	Michigan St.	31	163	92.3%	/  95.7%
2011/11/12	22	/  25	Michigan St.	37	at	33	/  27	Iowa	21	182	57.3%	/  30.5%
2011/11/19	96	/ 101	Indiana	3	at	21	/  20	Michigan St.	55	164	89.0%	/  90.0%
2011/11/26	13	/  18	Michigan St.	31	at	62	/  59	Northwestern	17	156	79.4%	/  73.7%
2011/12/03	3	/   5	Wisconsin	42	vs	15	/  19	Michigan St.	39	154	32.0%	/  34.4%
2012/01/02	13	/  19	Michigan St.	--	vs	20	/  12	Georgia	--	--	56.9%	/  42.0%

3. Allstate BCS National Championship Game

Monday, January 9 at 8:30 PM

Alabama Crimson Tide (10 - 1; 7 - 1 SEC)
vs
LSU Tigers (12 - 0; 9 - 0 SEC)

GUGS Score: 80.3

Eddie

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	1.000	1	0.549	14	26.1	5	5.1	1	156.9	120

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	1.000	2	0.549	17	26.8	4	6.5	2	160.2	113

Another field goal exhibition? Unlikely. (1a) LSU and (1b) Alabama are extremely powerful on both sides of the ball. This game ranks only third on the GUGS system because it should be a defensively oriented game, just not as much as you may expect. Defensively, Alabama holds a slight edge at 0.9 +/- 8.3 PPH to the Tigers' 2.8 +/- 7.5 PPH. Offensively, these two teams are even. LSU is a slightly less efficient but more consistent 35.7 +/- 17.7 PPH, as opposed to the Crimson Tide's 36.2 +/- 20.2. In the end, RBA gives the Bama defense a slight nod, 24-21, with 67.0% confidence.

Justin

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.963	1	0.621	13	33.5	2	9.1	1	152.2	120

LSU Tigers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.946	2	0.656	5	33.4	3	10.6	2	156.1	115

Actually the main reasons GUGS isn't hot on this game are that both of us think Alabama will win, and both think it'll be a low-scoring affair. Having said that, I should point out that GUGS like this game more than last year's most interesting game. However, it's difficult to say something new that we didn't say the first time around. I know it seems weird for the computer to keep Alabama on top after they lose to LSU at home, but if you look back at the game it's difficult to argue that the LSU was the better team for the full game. LSU had one drive of more than 40 yards; Alabama had three. LSU had six punts; Alabama had two. Alabama was a slightly underthrown pass away from a touchdown. Throw in that the Crimson Tide went 1-of-5 on 40+ yard field goals when the national average is about 55%, and you'll see that LSU was very lucky to walk out with the win. The question is whether or not Alabama can do it again but clean up their mistakes. I'd be surprised if we saw another low-scoring game, but both of these teams will have had nearly a month off before kickoff. Alabama 34, LSU 32 (59.4%); 154 plays.

Alabama Crimson Tide Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	100	/  97	Kent St.	7	at	3	/   2	Alabama	48	172	98.6%	/  98.2%
2011/09/10	2	/   3	Alabama	27	at	33	/  37	Penn State	11	164	79.5%	/  89.4%
2011/09/17	106	/ 108	North Texas	0	at	1	/   2	Alabama	41	153	99.1%	/  98.1%
2011/09/24	12	/  19	Arkansas	14	at	1	/   2	Alabama	38	145	86.1%	/  74.7%
2011/10/01	1	/   1	Alabama	38	at	3	/  11	Florida	10	146	58.5%	/  70.5%
2011/10/08	86	/  55	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	/   1	Alabama	34	140	98.5%	/  94.6%
2011/10/15	1	/   1	Alabama	52	at	72	/  69	Mississippi	7	141	96.9%	/  97.8%
2011/10/22	42	/  34	Tennessee	6	at	1	/   1	Alabama	37	138	96.9%	/  93.0%
2011/11/05	2	/   3	LSU	9	at	1	/   1	Alabama	6	143	72.6%	/  73.0%
2011/11/12	1	/   1	Alabama	24	at	39	/  30	Mississippi St.	7	155	93.7%	/  95.3%
2011/11/26	1	/   1	Alabama	42	at	39	/  44	Auburn	14	136	94.7%	/  96.1%
2012/01/09	2	/   2	LSU	--	vs	1	/   1	Alabama	--	--	59.4%	/  67.0%

LSU Tigers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	5	/   9	Oregon	27	vs	9	/   7	LSU	40	184	45.4%	/  56.5%
2011/09/15	7	/   8	LSU	19	at	35	/  26	Mississippi St.	6	150	69.4%	/  64.1%
2011/09/24	5	/   7	LSU	47	at	21	/  26	West Virginia	21	188	64.4%	/  35.3%
2011/10/01	62	/  55	Kentucky	7	at	5	/   4	LSU	35	162	93.0%	/  84.7%
2011/10/08	7	/  13	Florida	11	at	3	/   3	LSU	41	141	66.6%	/  54.8%
2011/10/15	3	/   2	LSU	38	at	32	/  29	Tennessee	7	143	81.4%	/  82.7%
2011/10/22	24	/  30	Auburn	10	at	2	/   3	LSU	45	144	88.6%	/  87.0%
2011/11/05	2	/   3	LSU	9	at	1	/   1	Alabama	6	143	27.4%	/  27.0%
2011/11/12	97	/  95	Western Kentucky	9	at	2	/   2	LSU	42	151	98.0%	/  98.4%
2011/11/19	2	/   2	LSU	52	at	87	/  88	Mississippi	3	139	96.6%	/  96.6%
2011/11/25	9	/  10	Arkansas	17	at	2	/   2	LSU	41	149	78.2%	/  77.3%
2011/12/03	2	/   2	LSU	42	vs	17	/  12	Georgia	10	168	82.8%	/  81.5%
2012/01/09	2	/   2	LSU	--	vs	1	/   1	Alabama	--	--	40.6%	/  33.0%

2. Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Monday, January 2 at 8:30 PM

Oklahoma State Cowboys (11 - 1; 8 - 1 Big XII)
vs
Stanford Cardinal (11 - 1; 8 - 1 Pac-12)

GUGS Score: 84.4

Justin

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.826	9	0.559	47	28.4	9	15.2	22	180.4	5

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.873	5	0.552	53	30.8	4	14.3	13	162.5	88

Technically this is the undercard matchup -- BCS #3 vs BCS #4 -- but GUGS feels it'll be more interesting than the title game, largely thanks to TFG and RBA disagreeing about who will win. Oklahoma State has a tendency to get into track meets with opponents, which doesn't speak well to their defensive efficiency. These teams aren't too different than they were two months ago when they were still undefeated and vying for a spot in the title game. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, Stanford has an advantage on both sides of the ball: 2.4 PPH on offense and 0.9 PPH on defense. Their only hope is to try and play an Oregon-type game against the Cardinal and try to wear down Stanford's defense. The numbers show they've got a 41% change against Stanford, which -- oddly enough -- was the same shot Oregon had in Palo Alto. Stanford 39, Oklahoma St. 36 (59.2%); 171 plays.

Eddie

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.975	4	0.550	12	27.0	3	13.7	39	173.3	7

Stanford Cardinal
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.958	6	0.543	23	27.5	2	10.8	12	167.0	53

Let's just say that these two teams have contrasting defensive styles. (5) Oklahoma State is consistently below average at 15.0 -/+ 2.7 PPH, but (6) Stanford never shows up against strong competition at 0.0 +/- 22.7 PPH. Offensively, this game should be a fireworks display. The Cowboys score at a 35.2 +/- 16.5 PPH clip. The Cardinal are effectively the same at 35.7 +/- 16.4 PPH. RBA says that consistency wins the defensive battle, and the pace turns that small advantage into a large scoreboard differential. Oklahoma State wins, 38-27, with 63.9% confidence.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	110	/ 112	LA-Lafayette	34	at	16	/  12	Oklahoma St.	61	196	96.7%	/  94.4%
2011/09/08	34	/  31	Arizona	14	at	22	/  10	Oklahoma St.	37	185	69.2%	/  53.2%
2011/09/18	15	/   9	Oklahoma St.	59	at	55	/  58	Tulsa	33	202	66.1%	/  70.7%
2011/09/24	17	/  10	Oklahoma St.	30	at	14	/  14	Texas A&M	29	199	38.3%	/  52.7%
2011/10/08	89	/  89	Kansas	28	at	18	/  10	Oklahoma St.	70	186	91.8%	/  89.9%
2011/10/15	15	/  10	Oklahoma St.	38	at	29	/  34	Texas	26	184	51.6%	/  52.3%
2011/10/22	15	/   9	Oklahoma St.	45	at	22	/  27	Missouri	24	187	42.6%	/  63.8%
2011/10/29	50	/  44	Baylor	24	at	12	/   8	Oklahoma St.	59	190	83.3%	/  68.5%
2011/11/05	35	/  34	Kansas St.	45	at	10	/   7	Oklahoma St.	52	181	75.4%	/  61.1%
2011/11/12	11	/   7	Oklahoma St.	66	at	60	/  62	Texas Tech	6	179	77.1%	/  78.4%
2011/11/18	9	/   5	Oklahoma St.	31	at	77	/  81	Iowa St.	37	211	88.6%	/  82.2%
2011/12/03	5	/   7	Oklahoma	10	at	12	/   4	Oklahoma St.	44	181	36.3%	/  54.7%
2012/01/02	5	/   6	Stanford	--	vs	9	/   4	Oklahoma St.	--	--	40.8%	/  63.9%

Stanford Cardinal Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	115	/ 107	SJSU	3	at	6	/   1	Stanford	57	162	98.8%	/  98.2%
2011/09/10	6	/   1	Stanford	44	at	90	/  82	Duke	14	155	91.4%	/  93.3%
2011/09/17	5	/   1	Stanford	37	at	40	/  36	Arizona	10	155	76.6%	/  79.2%
2011/10/01	76	/  75	UCLA	19	at	4	/   3	Stanford	45	152	95.3%	/  94.7%
2011/10/08	76	/  67	Colorado	7	at	5	/   4	Stanford	48	155	95.2%	/  94.9%
2011/10/15	4	/   4	Stanford	44	at	82	/  64	Washington St.	14	157	93.1%	/  90.8%
2011/10/22	44	/  32	Washington	21	at	4	/   2	Stanford	65	159	91.4%	/  88.3%
2011/10/29	4	/   2	Stanford	56	at	24	/  22	USC	48	191	69.6%	/  83.9%
2011/11/05	4	/   2	Stanford	38	at	61	/  60	Oregon St.	13	149	88.6%	/  92.8%
2011/11/12	7	/   3	Oregon	53	at	4	/   5	Stanford	30	166	59.7%	/  51.2%
2011/11/19	51	/  44	California	28	at	7	/   7	Stanford	31	152	84.8%	/  90.0%
2011/11/26	15	/  21	Notre Dame	14	at	7	/   7	Stanford	28	174	65.8%	/  73.6%
2012/01/02	5	/   6	Stanford	--	vs	9	/   4	Oklahoma St.	--	--	59.2%	/  36.1%

1. Rose Bowl Game presented by Visio

Monday, January 2 at 5:00 PM

Oregon Ducks (10 - 2; 9 - 1 Pac-12)
vs
Wisconsin Badgers (10 - 2; 7 - 2 Big Ten)

GUGS Score: 87.8

Eddie

Oregon Ducks
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.983	3	0.531	45	25.5	7	10.7	11	176.2	3

Wisconsin Badgers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.975	5	0.533	42	28.7	1	11.4	19	161.5	108

After the Arkansas game, this is the one game I have to watch. On one hand, you have the lightning-fast (3) Oregon Ducks with their efficient offense. On the other, you have the slow and grinding (4) Wisconsin offense that pounds defenses into paste. Due to pace, humans tend to overestimate Oregon's raw efficiency, but their 28.4 +/- 5.9 PPH suggests that nobody can stop them for an entire game. Wisconsin has put up a lot of points despite playing slowly, but they have been known to be slowed by tougher teams at 38.4 +/- 19.4 PPH. That's still better than (1a) LSU and (1b) Alabama, but it's a shade below the Ducks. This wouldn't be a problem if the Ducks couldn't play defense. Unfortunately for the Badgers, Oregon's 1.5 +/- 18.5 PPH is roughly equivalent to Wisconsin's 2.9 +/- 17.0 PPH. Oregon will push the pace to exploit their offensive advantage, leading to a 38-31 win but at only 51.7% confidence.

Justin

Oregon Ducks
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.861	6	0.598	22	26.9	10	13.0	6	185.4	1

Wisconsin Badgers
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2011	0.883	4	0.535	57	35.0	1	15.6	26	157.9	110

This is far and away the most interesting game we've see since we started keeping track of this via GUGS. As Eddie said, the efficiencies of each team are somewhat distorted by pace. Wisconsin possesses the top offense according to TFG, whereas Oregon just sneaks into the top 10. On the flip side, the Oregon defense is well within the top 10 while the Badger defense is about 20 spots lower. The problem for Oregon is that those 20 spots translate to a 2.6 PPH advantage, while Wisconsin's offense holds an 8.1 PPH advantage over the Duck offense. Wisconsin's defense will struggle to keep up with Oregon's pace, while Oregon's defense will struggle simply to keep Wisconsin out of the end zone. If the Badgers can prevent the Ducks from getting a quick start and can use their overpowering offense to keep Oregon's offense off the field, they'll have the advantage. If Oregon is able to get off to the races and can contain the Badger offense -- a difficult task, considering that even in their two losses Wisconsin managed an average of 19.4 PPH on the road -- they've got a shot. It'll be close, but TFG says Wisconsin's offense gives them the edge. Wisconsin 41, Oregon 36 (54.9%); 171 plays.

Oregon Ducks Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/03	5	/   9	Oregon	27	vs	9	/   7	LSU	40	184	54.6%	/  43.5%
2011/09/10	26	/  49	Nevada	20	at	10	/   4	Oregon	69	189	79.2%	/  76.0%
2011/09/24	8	/   3	Oregon	56	at	48	/  35	Arizona	31	188	75.6%	/  72.4%
2011/10/06	48	/  51	California	15	at	8	/   5	Oregon	43	196	87.6%	/  87.0%
2011/10/15	25	/  12	Arizona St.	27	at	7	/   6	Oregon	41	186	78.2%	/  73.3%
2011/10/22	7	/   5	Oregon	45	at	86	/  78	Colorado	2	173	90.9%	/  93.8%
2011/10/29	89	/  71	Washington St.	28	at	5	/   4	Oregon	43	173	97.1%	/  91.5%
2011/11/05	6	/   4	Oregon	34	at	45	/  30	Washington	17	162	80.5%	/  86.5%
2011/11/12	7	/   3	Oregon	53	at	4	/   5	Stanford	30	166	40.3%	/  48.8%
2011/11/19	20	/  12	USC	38	at	5	/   3	Oregon	35	181	71.5%	/  78.1%
2011/11/26	65	/  66	Oregon St.	21	at	4	/   3	Oregon	49	197	88.2%	/  92.9%
2011/12/02	75	/  65	UCLA	31	at	7	/   3	Oregon	49	183	90.6%	/  89.8%
2012/01/02	4	/   5	Wisconsin	--	vs	6	/   3	Oregon	--	--	45.1%	/  51.7%

Wisconsin Badgers Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2011/09/01	107	/ 106	UNLV	17	at	14	/  11	Wisconsin	51	146	96.5%	/  94.7%
2011/09/10	40	/  66	Oregon St.	0	at	15	/   7	Wisconsin	35	153	79.4%	/  78.4%
2011/09/17	13	/   3	Wisconsin	49	vs	47	/  64	Northern Ill.	7	160	76.3%	/  71.8%
2011/10/01	17	/  26	Nebraska	17	at	7	/   2	Wisconsin	48	159	73.9%	/  66.2%
2011/10/15	95	/  95	Indiana	7	at	6	/   3	Wisconsin	59	162	96.7%	/  95.3%
2011/10/22	6	/   4	Wisconsin	31	at	14	/  14	Michigan St.	37	151	57.7%	/  72.7%
2011/10/29	7	/   6	Wisconsin	29	at	9	/  12	Ohio St.	33	159	47.1%	/  76.4%
2011/11/05	72	/  72	Purdue	17	at	7	/   8	Wisconsin	62	166	91.6%	/  91.9%
2011/11/12	6	/   6	Wisconsin	42	at	92	/ 110	Minnesota	13	129	93.7%	/  96.7%
2011/11/19	6	/   6	Wisconsin	28	at	47	/  52	Illinois	17	144	84.1%	/  85.6%
2011/11/26	22	/  37	Penn State	7	at	6	/   4	Wisconsin	45	155	70.7%	/  79.7%
2011/12/03	3	/   5	Wisconsin	42	vs	15	/  19	Michigan St.	39	154	68.0%	/  65.6%
2012/01/02	4	/   5	Wisconsin	--	vs	6	/   3	Oregon	--	--	54.9%	/  48.3%

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