The 2011 - 2012 TFG/RBA Recap

With the 2011 - 2012 season well in the books, let's take a moment to look back at the year.

2011 - 2012 Season
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	524.7 - 190.3	73.4	528 - 187	73.8
RBA	522.2 - 192.8	73.0	518 - 197	72.4

This season was notably unpredictable. The TFG system actually tied for the most accurate known prediction system -- as measured by picking straight-up winners -- but was only a tenth of a percentage point ahead of the least accurate winning system over the last 12 years. Anecdotally we saw this through the eyes of one-loss BCS champion Alabama and the lengthy disputes over who should have gotten a shot at LSU in the title game. (We argued that, for once, the BCS got it right.)

As we look back at this season, though, we'll revisit some of the highs and lows through the lens of our various trivia posts.

The State of Parity
In a previous trivia post we attempted to define and measure parity in a league. The definition we settled upon wasn't so much "parity" as it was "disparity": the standard deviation of the expected winning percentages (EWP) of all teams in FBS. The larger this value, the more variance there is between the EWPs, and the greater the spread between the teams; the smaller this value, the more tightly clustered teams are aroudn 0.500. So with another year in the books, let's examine the state of (dis)parity in college football.

This past year actually set a new low in the overall disparity of talent across FBS (0.020547) surpassing the previous low of 0.020669 in the 2007-2008 season; if you'll recall, that year was a bit of a mess for top teams. Thus continues the downward trend in disparity (i.e., a sign of ever-increasing parity in FBS). Realistically what this means is that it will be more difficult to run the table, less likely to see two undefeated teams emerge for a clear-cut title game, and more BCS debates as the overall talent level becomes more evenly distributed instead of hoarded by several top teams.

Biggest Upset
Earlier this year we examined the five biggest post-September upsets since 2003. The bar to get into that club was defeating a 94.4% favorite; in other words, if you had a 1-in-17.8 shot of winning and still pulled it off, you were in. How did this year fare?

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (9-1, 5-1 C-USA) at UAB Blazers (2-8, 2-5 C-USA); November 17, 2011.
TFG Prediction: Southern Miss 47, UAB 28 (92.3% confidence)
Result: UAB 34, Southern Miss 31

It wasn't quite 1-in-17.8, but 1-in-13 is still a pretty steep hill to climb. (47) Southern Miss was on a roll, having won eight straight after a 26-20 setback on the road against Marshall. (114) UAB's two wins had come by a combined eight points, but otherwise had been outscored 95-13 by the two ranked opponents they had played (Houston and Florida). The game started as expected, with Southern Miss going up 14-0 before three minutes of game clock has passed. From there, however, fortunes changed. The next seven drives for Southern Miss -- lasting until the 4th quarter -- were an interception, a fumble, a TD, a punt, the end of the half, a FG, and a FG miss. Thirty-nine seconds into the 4th quarter, UAB rumbled into the end zone to cap off a 31-10 run to put them up by a touchdown. Southern Miss struck quickly, tying it up at 31 with ten minutes remaining. UAB methodically picked their way downfield, burning over seven minutes of clock before getting the go-ahead field goal. USM attempted a desperation five-lateral play as time expired, but only made it to the UAB 40 before getting pushed out of bounds. USM went in as a three-touchdown favorite, and left as 3-point losers.

After the jump we'll examine the most improbable winning streaks as well as the biggest swings in team strength, including ugly swandives and beautiful ascents.

Improbable Winning Streaks
Previously we had examined the most improbably post-September winning streaks since 2003. Fifth place went to the 2004 Iowa State Cyclones and their 1-in-188 four-game winning streak. How did this year's improbable streak(s) stack up?

2011 Virginia Cavaliers
Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2011/10/27	86	Virginia	28	at	24	Miami-FL	21	144	10.2%
2011/11/05	78	Virginia	31	at	68	Maryland	13	171	40.2%
2011/11/12	87	Duke	21	at	70	Virginia	31	170	65.2%
2011/11/19	70	Virginia	14	at	10	Florida St.	13	154	15.3%

Ah, the ACC. Where statisticians and commentators toss their hands up in defeat. This year's improbable win streak comes courtesy of Virginia, where the Cavaliers bookended wins over Duke and Maryland with big upsets on the road in Florida. It all started with a creative win against Miami, which included a fake field goal, a TD pass by a running back, and 78-yard TD reception by the same RB. After that their 31-13 win at Maryland seemed downright boring, and their 31-21 win against Duke was practically routine. The end of their game at Florida State was anything but, as the Seminoles got three shots at a game-winning field goal, including an extra try and five yards in their favor thanks to a "disruptive noises" penalty on the Cavaliers. Ultimately it was to no avail, as UVa escaped with a narrow victory. Unfortunately for Virginia, though, the next week they ran into the buzzsaw of an enraged-and-out-to-prove-something Virginia Tech squad, who dismantled them 38-0. Nonetheless, the Cavalier winning streak is the fourth-least-probable since the 2003-2004 season.

Runners-up: Baylor Bears (six wins; November 5th - December 29th; 1-in-197) and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (five wins; October 6th - November 5th; 1-in-75).

Biggest Negative Change
Previously we examined those teams that took the most impressive swan dives. So who had that dubious distinction this year? None other than the 2011 Mississippi Rebels.

Mississippi Rebels
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2010	0.533	57	0.615	19	24.1	26	22.8	83	162.8	72
2011	0.261	101	0.684	2	17.0	94	25.8	94	158.4	94

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2010/09/11	16	Mississippi	27	at	118	Tulane	13	144	96.0%
2010/09/18	93	Vanderbilt	28	at	28	Mississippi	14	169	90.8%
2010/09/25	55	Fresno St.	38	at	45	Mississippi	55	163	66.1%
2010/10/02	49	Kentucky	35	at	39	Mississippi	42	177	63.2%
2010/10/16	37	Mississippi	10	at	2	Alabama	23	158	8.3%
2010/10/23	41	Mississippi	24	at	23	Arkansas	38	168	27.5%
2010/10/30	15	Auburn	51	at	48	Mississippi	31	159	39.6%
2010/11/06	105	LA-Lafayette	21	at	51	Mississippi	43	145	87.7%
2010/11/13	52	Mississippi	14	at	61	Tennessee	52	160	53.3%
2010/11/20	61	Mississippi	36	at	5	LSU	43	154	13.5%
2010/11/27	40	Mississippi St.	31	at	58	Mississippi	23	178	41.2%

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2011/09/03	41	BYU	14	at	58	Mississippi	13	148	55.8%
2011/09/17	51	Mississippi	7	at	95	Vanderbilt	30	156	68.6%
2011/09/24	21	Georgia	27	at	68	Mississippi	13	169	29.1%
2011/10/01	75	Mississippi	38	at	74	Fresno St.	28	168	40.5%
2011/10/15	1	Alabama	52	at	72	Mississippi	7	141	3.0%
2011/10/22	11	Arkansas	29	at	72	Mississippi	24	161	19.4%
2011/10/29	69	Mississippi	23	at	30	Auburn	41	163	16.9%
2011/11/05	71	Mississippi	13	at	83	Kentucky	30	169	52.2%
2011/11/12	65	LA Tech	27	at	81	Mississippi	7	179	45.2%
2011/11/19	2	LSU	52	at	85	Mississippi	3	139	3.5%
2011/11/26	92	Mississippi	3	at	42	Mississippi St.	31	151	21.8%

It's not exactly the case that the 2010 Mississippi squad was anything special. In fact they were excessively average, and went 4-7 against the 19th most difficult schedule in FBS. Their offense was reasonably good -- 24.1 PPH was enough to nip the top 25 -- but their defense struggled in allowing 22.8 PPH, 83rd-best in FBS. This year, though, saw defense regress by a full 3 PPH and offense plummet over 7 PPH. Against an average schedule that would have lead to netting nearly 16 points per game fewer than the previous year, but the Rebels had the misfortune to play the second most-difficult schedule in FBS: Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, all top-25 squads. Both their offense and defense were ranked 94th in FBS, leading to a net change in expected winning percentage of -0.278. That wasn't quite good enough to crack the top 5, but it's still an impressive free-fall nonetheless.

Runners-up: Kentucky Wildcats (-0.238) and Auburn Tigers (-0.205).

Biggest Positive Change
On the flip side, previously we looked at the biggest one-year improvements. This year our "most improved" also hails from the SEC. It helps, in this case, to play in the SEC division that doesn't have LSU, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Vanderbilt Commodores
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2010	0.200	105	0.575	36	11.6	118	20.2	58	168.4	35
2011	0.509	62	0.611	16	19.4	70	19.1	47	161.4	72

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2010/09/04	61	Northwestern	23	at	94	Vanderbilt	21	167	43.0%
2010/09/11	13	LSU	27	at	88	Vanderbilt	3	146	18.0%
2010/09/18	93	Vanderbilt	28	at	28	Mississippi	14	169	9.2%
2010/10/02	81	Vanderbilt	21	at	59	Connecticut	40	161	25.8%
2010/10/09	112	Eastern Michigan	6	at	89	Vanderbilt	52	161	81.8%
2010/10/16	76	Vanderbilt	0	at	31	Georgia	43	144	16.8%
2010/10/23	18	South Carolina	21	at	87	Vanderbilt	7	174	19.2%
2010/10/30	92	Vanderbilt	14	at	21	Arkansas	49	164	7.9%
2010/11/06	8	Florida	55	at	98	Vanderbilt	14	188	6.1%
2010/11/13	99	Vanderbilt	20	at	51	Kentucky	38	180	16.0%
2010/11/20	51	Tennessee	24	at	99	Vanderbilt	10	166	19.5%
2010/11/27	98	Wake Forest	34	at	99	Vanderbilt	13	180	48.7%

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2011/09/10	54	Connecticut	21	at	102	Vanderbilt	24	157	26.3%
2011/09/17	51	Mississippi	7	at	95	Vanderbilt	30	156	31.4%
2011/09/24	79	Vanderbilt	3	at	24	South Carolina	21	147	12.2%
2011/10/08	86	Vanderbilt	0	at	1	Alabama	34	140	1.3%
2011/10/15	17	Georgia	33	at	97	Vanderbilt	28	170	12.6%
2011/10/22	84	Army	21	at	93	Vanderbilt	44	163	56.7%
2011/10/29	14	Arkansas	31	at	82	Vanderbilt	28	166	18.9%
2011/11/05	79	Vanderbilt	21	at	11	Florida	26	158	11.4%
2011/11/12	78	Kentucky	8	at	74	Vanderbilt	38	156	56.2%
2011/11/19	64	Vanderbilt	21	at	54	Tennessee	27	157	43.7%
2011/11/26	67	Vanderbilt	41	at	74	Wake Forest	7	164	53.3%
2011/12/31	61	Vanderbilt	24	vs	40	Cincinnati	31	176	39.4%

File this under "a big leap from atrocious to mediocre." The Commodores had no offense last year. At 11.8 PPH they were the third-worst in FBS, meaning their average 20.2 PPH-allowing defense just couldn't hold the score low enough for the Vandy offense to eventually meander its way into the end zone. This year that changed. The Commodores found a respectable offense that was able to score 19.4 PPH, a full 7.6 PPH better than last year. The defense nudged up slightly, giving Vandy a net benefit of 8.7 PPH over last year. That was good enough for a 5-6 record in FBS during the regular season, and a close loss to a superior Cincinnati team in a New Year's Eve bowl. Their net adjustment in expected winning percentage was +0.309, just enough to edge the UTEP Miners and the Texas A&M Aggies for the fourth-best improvement over the last eight years.

Runners-up: Michigan Wolverines (+0.278) and Houston Cougars (+0.239).

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