Game of the Week
Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies
GUGS Score: 58.8
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Texas A&M | 0.759 | 0.603 | 22 | 22.8 | 39 | 14.4 | 7 | 184.1 | 1 |
| 21 | Florida | 0.746 | 0.609 | 17 | 23.6 | 34 | 15.3 | 12 | 158.5 | 99 |
Texas A&M 34, Florida 30 (64.9%); 171 plays
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Texas A&M | 0.860 | 0.556 | 10 | 22.2 | 15 | 12.1 | 25 | 172.7 | 11 |
| 16 | Florida | 0.883 | 0.559 | 7 | 16.8 | 55 | 10.1 | 8 | 161.4 | 110 |
People act like (19) Texas A&M was the flop of the 2011 season and undeserving of an invite to the SEC. Those same people clearly don't pay attention to their schedule, which included Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. The Aggies weren't terribly consistent, but they were certainly above average with a 32.8 +/- 21.3 PPH offense and 1.5 +/- 21.2 PPH defense. (16) Florida has looked terrible offensively with a 24.8 +/- 15.9 PPH. Their 0.1 +/- 20.0 PPH defense is the only thing keeping them in the top 25. The game should be relatively close, but home field advantage inducts the Aggies into the SEC with a 28-24 win with 68.5% confidence.
Shootout of the Week
Air Force Falcons at Michigan Wolverines
GUGS Score: 41.6
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Michigan | 0.851 | 0.544 | 24 | 22.4 | 13 | 12.0 | 24 | 167.5 | 50 |
| 52 | Air Force | 0.596 | 0.472 | 87 | 19.3 | 28 | 17.3 | 73 | 164.2 | 93 |
Still stinging from their Alabama beatdown, (21) Michigan hosts (52) Air Force. The triple option is surprisingly effective against unprepared defenses, and Michigan plays like an unprepared defense with 0.0 +/- 27.7 PPH efficiency. The problem is that Air Force is no better at 7.0 +/- 20.6 PPH. The real difference is offensive efficiency. Denard Robinson should run free in the Air Force secondary, leading a 34.2 +/- 23.6 PPH offense against a comparatively weak 26.4 +/- 14.2 PPH Falcon offense. Expect lots of scoring and a 41-21 Michigan victory with 77.4% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Michigan | 0.790 | 0.710 | 1 | 32.3 | 6 | 19.1 | 45 | 156.1 | 108 |
| 49 | Air Force | 0.572 | 0.412 | 94 | 24.3 | 28 | 21.6 | 68 | 162.4 | 68 |
Michigan 45, Air Force 32 (82.9%); 159 plays
Coin Toss Game of the Week
Vanderbilt Commodores at Northwestern Wildcats
GUGS Score: 45.4
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | Northwestern | 0.475 | 0.510 | 63 | 21.9 | 50 | 22.8 | 76 | 171.5 | 22 |
| 58 | Vanderbilt | 0.542 | 0.648 | 8 | 19.4 | 73 | 18.1 | 36 | 160.2 | 85 |
Northwestern 34, Vanderbilt 33 (57.0%); 165 plays
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | Northwestern | 0.500 | 0.511 | 63 | 17.3 | 46 | 17.4 | 75 | 176.7 | 2 |
| 27 | Vanderbilt | 0.807 | 0.550 | 14 | 18.8 | 33 | 11.1 | 14 | 161.5 | 107 |
RBA loves (27) Vanderbilt. They nearly beat Arkansas last year and South Carolina this year. The Commodores are tough on defense to the tune of 2.9 +/- 16.6 PPH. Offensive inconsistency keeps them out of the top 25, but 33.0 +/- 28.4 PPH is comparable to Michigan. (63) Northwestern isn't that bad, but their 10.0 +/- 14.8 PPH defense is going to have their hands full. RBA says Vandy wins, 31-24, with 74.2% confidence.
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 33.66 - 9.34 | 78.28% |
| TFG | 34.11 - 8.89 | 79.32% |
