Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Week 3: Top 25 -- RBA


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 1.000 0.552 12 25.7 1 4.2 1 156.5 122
2 -- LSU 0.992 0.549 19 24.6 6 7.0 2 160.0 115
3 -- Oregon 0.984 0.531 48 24.6 5 13.2 34 176.5 3
4 +1 Stanford 0.975 0.541 32 24.3 7 12.2 25 167.0 58
5 +1 Oklahoma 0.975 0.543 27 19.7 29 9.5 6 171.7 14
6 +1 Wisconsin 0.974 0.535 40 23.3 11 10.7 12 161.5 110
7 +1 Houston 0.966 0.473 85 21.6 17 16.0 65 176.0 4
8 -4 Oklahoma St. 0.966 0.550 15 25.0 4 16.9 74 173.6 7
9 +1 Arkansas 0.958 0.566 2 20.1 23 14.2 44 165.7 79
10 +3 USC 0.958 0.533 45 23.6 9 11.9 24 166.9 60
11 -2 Boise St. 0.933 0.462 97 23.9 8 10.5 11 168.8 37
12 -1 Florida St. 0.924 0.550 16 18.9 33 9.6 7 165.7 80
13 -1 South Carolina 0.909 0.543 28 22.7 12 8.7 3 157.8 121
14 +1 Michigan St. 0.908 0.544 26 20.4 20 9.7 8 167.1 57
15 -1 Georgia 0.897 0.548 20 22.1 15 12.6 30 160.0 114
16 +2 Nebraska 0.889 0.533 46 19.8 27 13.5 38 167.0 59
17 +3 Notre Dame 0.889 0.565 3 19.4 30 10.8 13 164.9 87
18 -1 TCU 0.882 0.463 95 23.5 10 13.3 36 167.8 46
19 -- Texas A&M 0.882 0.557 9 22.1 14 11.8 20 172.6 12
20 +3 Ohio St. 0.852 0.531 50 20.0 25 11.0 14 159.2 116
21 -5 Florida 0.842 0.559 8 16.8 51 9.5 5 161.4 111
22 NA Kansas St. 0.835 0.532 47 25.4 2 12.9 33 166.2 73
23 -2 Michigan 0.825 0.544 25 22.0 16 12.2 28 167.5 52
24 NA Cincinnati 0.814 0.510 64 18.5 34 11.2 17 169.1 32
25 -- Virginia Tech 0.812 0.527 59 16.8 52 10.4 10 158.3 120
Rankings through games of 2012-09-09


New entries: Kansas St., Cincinnati.

Dropped out: Texas, Missouri.

As with the previous week, we're still in a learning phase for this season.  For the same reason Houston jumped last week, we see Arkansas holding steady for losing to Louisiana-Monroe.  (Their spot increase was due to Boise State falling, rather than improving their standing.)  Although it looks like they're holding steady, their offensive and defensive performances changed dramatically.  Their offense went from 30.8 +/- 14.5 PPH to 21.5 +/- 2.8 PPH, and their defense went from 1.6 +/- 19.1 PPH to 9.8 +/- 8.7 PPH.  When Alabama crushes them next week, the curve will change further, creating a steep slope to go with the mediocre baseline.  Expect to see the Razorbacks drop out of the top 25 very soon.

Wisconsin took a similar hit.  Their offensive efficiency tumbled from 37.8 +/- 18.3 PPH to 28.3 +/- 9.9 PPH after their poor showing against Oregon State.  (Their Northern Iowa game didn't happen, as far as RBA is concerned because it involves an FCS team.)  If they don't get their act together against Utah State (who upset Utah last week), the Badgers could follow the Razorbacks out the polls.

It takes about four weeks for these anomalies to even out.  Just bear with us.  This is why the BCS polls don't come out until week eight.


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