Game of the Week
Michigan Wolverines at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
GUGS Score: 65.0
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Notre Dame | 0.820 | 0.573 | 31 | 24.5 | 29 | 13.3 | 6 | 163.3 | 64 |
| 24 | Michigan | 0.704 | 0.554 | 36 | 32.5 | 6 | 23.0 | 72 | 158.1 | 99 |
For as much as Denard Robinson takes the blame for not living up to the hype, the real problem facing Michigan is their lack of defense. There's no shame in giving up 41 points to Alabama -- the Crimson Tide are 5.5 PPH clear of the second-best offense in FBS (the slowly-sinking Wisconsin) and post points at a better clip than even Vince Young's Texas squad -- but giving up 25 to Air Force and 13 to a hapless Massachusetts team don't bode well. The Irish, though, are succeeding thanks to their lock-down defense. This game is going to come down to how well Notre Dame can stop Michigan's offense, and if Michigan can find any defense. TFG isn't too optimistic about the latter, and gives the ultimate advantage to Notre Dame. Notre Dame 39, Michigan 35 (74.3%); 160 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Notre Dame | 0.966 | 0.564 | 2 | 19.4 | 29 | 9.9 | 9 | 164.9 | 87 |
| 22 | Michigan | 0.839 | 0.544 | 25 | 22.8 | 11 | 13.9 | 40 | 167.5 | 53 |
This game is an interesting matchup. Notre Dame is playing respectable defense, posting a consistent 10.7 +/- 1.6 PPH. However, their 29.1 +/- 19.5 PPH offense hasn't shown up in big games. On the other hand, Michigan's defense struggles against top competition at 4.1 +/- 19.6 PPH. The real key here is if Michigan can get its 36.2 +/- 26.8 PPH offense going. When the Wolverines are clicking, they are amazing. When they aren't, you get the Alabama game (although that's largely because Alabama makes everyone look that way). In the end, RBA thinks Notre Dame wins this one, 31-17, but it's not very confident about it.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
Syracuse Orange at Minnesota Golden Gophers
GUGS Score: 33.2
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97 | Minnesota | 0.207 | 0.536 | 37 | 13.3 | 94 | 18.2 | 81 | 166.4 | 68 |
| 82 | Syracuse | 0.333 | 0.547 | 19 | 15.6 | 61 | 18.2 | 82 | 163.9 | 96 |
Neither team plays particularly good defense. The Golden Gophers post a 12.0 +/- 12.5 PPH defense, surrendering lots of points even to bad teams. The Orange surrender 13.8 +/- 8.8 PPH, which isn't much better. Offensively, the teams are relatively matched. Minnesota scores 16.9 +/- 7.2 PPH, whereas Syracuse scores a more consistent 16.6 +/- 2.0 PPH. However, RBA says this game is all about home field advantage, tilting the game in favor of the Gophers, 28-24, with 63.6% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85 | Minnesota | 0.336 | 0.478 | 72 | 18.9 | 75 | 24.7 | 92 | 160.2 | 88 |
| 72 | Syracuse | 0.444 | 0.596 | 21 | 21.6 | 52 | 23.6 | 77 | 167.4 | 40 |
I'm not excited about this game, GUGS isn't too big on it, and the teams are middling at best. So why did we pick this game for our Coin Toss game? Simple: process of elimination. There are 46 games today, and TFG and RBA agree on 45 of them. This is, quite literally, the only game on which our computers disagree. I don't know if this is a sign that Eddie's computer is getting better, mine is getting worse, or some combination of the two. But by the slimmest of margins TFG thinks that not even home field advantage is going to lift the Golden Gopher offense or defense past the slightly superior Orangemen squad. It'll be close, though. Syracuse 37, Minnesota 35 (51.1%); 163 plays
2012 Coin Toss record: TFG 2, RBA 1
2012 Coin Toss record: TFG 2, RBA 1
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 34.92 - 11.08 | 75.91% |
| TFG | 35.86 - 10.14 | 77.95% |
