Game of the Week
Wisconsin Badgers at Nebraska Cornhuskers
GUGS Score: 71.9
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nebraska | 0.759 | 0.555 | 39 | 26.3 | 21 | 16.6 | 23 | 165.5 | 53 |
| 12 | Wisconsin | 0.822 | 0.523 | 46 | 34.0 | 2 | 18.5 | 34 | 152.8 | 118 |
By the end of last year, Wisconsin had the best offense in FBS. At 39.2 PPH, they were a full 2.0 PPH ahead of the second-best offense, Alabama. Given that it's no wonder that TFG is still positive on Wisconsin, even though their efficiency has plummeted. Oddly, though, their defensive efficiency hasn't budged an inch from that ranking, which is giving them a little leeway to be anemic on the offensive end. The Cornhuskers, though, have gained as much on offense as Wisconsin has lost (+4.3 PPH on the year) while only slipping 0.6 PPH on defense. TFG gives this coin toss to Nebraska, but if Wisconsin's offense further proves that it's not anywhere near as potent as last year, this could get out of hand quickly. Nebraska 38, Wisconsin 37 (50.8%); 159 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nebraska | 0.873 | 0.532 | 44 | 20.8 | 21 | 12.5 | 27 | 167.0 | 60 |
| 8 | Wisconsin | 0.950 | 0.533 | 41 | 20.9 | 20 | 12.2 | 26 | 161.5 | 110 |
The Badgers haven't looked very good this season, squeaking past FCS Northern Iowa and Utah State and losing to Oregon State. However, they were so good last year that it's taking a while to bring them back down to earth. The Badger offense has dropped from 37.9 +/- 18.3 PPH under Russell Wilson to 23.3 +/- 4.9 PPH under Danny O'Brien, but at least it's consistent, right? Wisconsin's defense is still playing tolerably well at 5.1 +/- 14.2 PPH to compensate for the offensive malaise. Nebraska has put up a bunch of points at 28.1 +/- 14.6 PPH but lost their only game against BCS competition. Unfortunately, this isn't quite as good as the Badgers. RBA thinks that this game is going to be really good, but the Badgers should escape Lincoln with a 29-28 victory at 66.1% confidence.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Cincinnati Bearcats
GUGS Score: 67.0
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Cincinnati | 0.817 | 0.509 | 64 | 18.5 | 35 | 11.2 | 22 | 169.1 | 32 |
| 37 | Virginia Tech | 0.718 | 0.527 | 59 | 16.2 | 54 | 11.0 | 18 | 158.4 | 121 |
RBA has never been a fan of the Hokies. Although they win quite a few games, they just can't seem to perform defensively against strong competition. The Hokie defensive efficiency is only 0.0 +/- 26.9 PPH, meaning that they faceplant against good teams. The Bearcats aren't the best team on the planet, but they're solid on both sides of the ball, averaging 26.0 +/- 15.1 PPH on offense and 5.6 +/- 11.1 PPH on defense. Virginia Tech simply won't be able to keep up with a 23.1 +/- 13.7 PPH offense. RBA picks Cincinnati, 31-20, with 55.8% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Cincinnati | 0.712 | 0.517 | 50 | 24.7 | 26 | 17.2 | 24 | 166.9 | 44 |
| 21 | Virginia Tech | 0.741 | 0.502 | 58 | 22.2 | 45 | 14.6 | 14 | 159.2 | 93 |
Ah yes. The ACC versus the Big East. Two of the least predictable conferences. Technically my computer has a made a prediction -- and a tentative one at that -- but who knows how this will play out. The Hokies have a middle-of-the-pack offense and a just-below-top-tier defense, while Cincinnati is a bit more balanced in their place in the world (26th-best offense, 24th-best defense). The Bearcats tend to play slightly faster than the Hokies, but not by much. Expect this to be a very grind-it-out game between two strong but not impressive programs. And may my pick be correct. Virginia Tech 33, Cincinnati 31 (53.7%); 163 plays.
2012 Coin Toss Record: TIED at 2.
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 36.94 - 12.06 | 75.40% |
| TFG | 35.25 - 13.75 | 71.94% |
