Week 10 RBA Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.
• Big East: Rutgers
• Conference-USA: UCF
• Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 10 TFG Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.
• Big East: Rutgers
• Conference-USA: UCF
• Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA

Odds as of games through 2012-10-28

Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2012-10-28

With only a few weeks to go in the season, the question appears to be "who will play Alabama in the title game?" The two obvious contenders are Notre Dame and Oregon. Based on their remaining schedules, though, TFG things the Fighting Irish are more than twice as likely to finish the regular season undefeated. These numbers don't take into account a conference championship, though; Notre Dame, of course, doesn't have one, and Alabama would be a 9-to-1 favorite against Florida (and a 22-to-1 favorite against Georgia). Oregon would be a 2-to-1 favorite against likely Pac-12 South champ USC.

Currently there's a 1-in-19 chance that Alabama, Notre Dame, and Oregon will all win out going into the championship game, at which point it will come down to style and strength of schedule. Notre Dame has the better SOS, but the Ducks have been making their case for a return to the title game. They'll need strong showings against Stanford, USC (possibly twice), and Oregon State in order to make their case.

Kansas State is still in the hunt, but TFG is still skeptical about their defense and remaining schedule. They're firmly in the "Long Shots" category.

Week 10: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: SMU (0.103); Toledo (0.098); Arizona (0.092); Syracuse (0.080); Utah St. (0.076)

Biggest drops: Washington (-0.121); Southern Miss. (-0.112); Nevada (-0.108); Houston (-0.100); TCU (-0.096)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	1.000	0.548	16	26.5	3	5.4	1	156.2	124
2	--	Oregon	0.992	0.528	52	27.4	1	11.4	19	176.8	2
3	+2	LSU	0.983	0.549	15	22.8	6	7.9	3	160.2	116
4	-1	Florida	0.983	0.558	5	18.8	34	7.6	2	161.3	111
5	+1	Notre Dame	0.983	0.566	2	20.3	22	8.6	4	164.5	92
6	+3	Kansas St.	0.975	0.531	47	26.6	2	13.4	34	165.7	82
7	+9	Oklahoma St.	0.966	0.550	14	21.8	17	13.1	32	173.9	7
8	-4	Oklahoma	0.958	0.547	18	22.6	8	9.3	7	171.5	17
9	-1	Boise St.	0.958	0.465	92	19.6	28	9.2	6	168.2	45
10	-3	South Carolina	0.934	0.543	27	22.9	5	9.9	11	157.9	122
11	-1	Stanford	0.932	0.542	29	19.7	27	11.0	16	167.2	57
12	+5	Ohio St.	0.915	0.530	50	21.1	19	13.4	35	159.7	117
13	-1	Florida St.	0.915	0.546	20	22.2	14	8.7	5	165.9	78
14	-3	Texas A&M	0.908	0.556	8	25.0	4	11.7	22	173.5	10
15	-1	Georgia	0.906	0.543	28	22.4	13	13.2	33	160.2	115
16	+3	Rutgers	0.895	0.500	67	16.2	60	11.0	15	164.6	90
17	-2	USC	0.891	0.532	44	22.6	7	11.0	17	166.9	66
18	-5	Wisconsin	0.890	0.531	46	20.2	24	11.4	21	161.4	110
19	-1	Michigan	0.860	0.544	24	21.9	16	10.2	13	166.9	68
20	+3	Clemson	0.850	0.531	48	21.6	18	14.2	44	167.6	54
21	NA	Nebraska	0.846	0.535	41	20.3	21	13.5	36	167.1	61
22	NA	Oregon St.	0.832	0.547	17	14.4	81	11.3	18	170.8	22
23	-2	Arizona St.	0.831	0.534	43	20.9	20	12.9	29	174.4	5
24	+1	Michigan St.	0.829	0.545	23	15.4	72	9.7	9	166.9	67
25	NA	BYU	0.828	0.486	75	17.3	46	9.7	8	168.8	37

Rankings through games of 2012-10-28

New entries: Nebraska, Oregon St., BYU.

Dropped out: TCU, Mississippi St., Penn State.

I'd like to start by taking a few steps backwards before presenting the RBA top 25.  The RBA top 25 is not a strict linear ordering of teams such that the (N-1)-th ranked team is expected to beat the N-th ranked team.  It means that in aggregate, the (N-1)-th ranked team will win more games in a 124 team neutral field round robin than the N-th ranked team.

Alabama and Oregon remain the top two teams in the country, sporting the top defense and offense, respectively.  RBA maintains a fairly consistent bias towards defensively-minded teams, so you'll find six of the top 10 defenses in the top 10.  The only real WTF team in the top 15 is Oklahoma State at #7.  They're sitting pretty thanks to an extremely consistent 22.2 +/- 0.8 PPH offense and an acceptably good-compared-to-most-of-the-Big-XII 8.3 +/- 9.5 PPH defense.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 10: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Kent St. (0.068); Navy (0.065); Air Force (0.058); Pittsburgh (0.056); Utah (0.053)

Biggest drops: California (-0.073); Temple (-0.071); Purdue (-0.060); Rutgers (-0.057); Troy (-0.048)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Top 25 -- TFG

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.981	0.599	24	41.4	1	8.6	1	147.8	124
2	--	LSU	0.900	0.634	16	27.0	14	11.2	2	158.9	97
3	+3	Notre Dame	0.885	0.652	11	26.6	18	11.8	3	158.5	98
4	+3	Florida St.	0.880	0.505	59	30.6	5	13.8	8	157.4	104
5	-2	Oklahoma	0.874	0.647	13	26.0	23	12.0	4	174.1	17
6	-2	Florida	0.867	0.664	9	26.3	22	12.4	5	157.5	102
7	-2	Oregon	0.863	0.495	65	31.6	3	15.1	13	179.2	8
8	+1	Boise St.	0.837	0.398	91	27.7	11	14.4	12	157.3	105
9	+1	Texas A&M	0.833	0.642	15	25.9	25	13.6	7	186.5	4
10	-2	Stanford	0.819	0.562	38	28.3	7	15.5	15	161.7	79
11	+4	Kansas St.	0.808	0.582	31	34.4	2	19.4	46	153.7	118
12	+2	Oklahoma St.	0.808	0.610	22	26.9	17	15.1	14	182.1	6
13	-2	South Carolina	0.799	0.585	28	27.8	10	16.0	18	157.9	100
14	-1	Wisconsin	0.797	0.530	48	31.2	4	18.1	30	153.7	119
15	-3	Michigan	0.788	0.585	29	28.1	9	16.6	19	153.4	120
16	--	USC	0.768	0.494	66	27.5	12	17.1	25	162.2	77
17	+2	Ohio St.	0.758	0.499	61	29.6	6	18.7	38	160.9	84
18	-1	TCU	0.751	0.504	60	26.5	19	17.0	22	161.2	83
19	+1	Michigan St.	0.751	0.614	21	20.0	69	12.8	6	162.6	72
20	+5	Nebraska	0.734	0.627	18	25.9	26	17.2	27	167.8	44
21	-3	Texas	0.722	0.571	34	28.3	8	19.3	44	161.7	80
22	NA	BYU	0.720	0.509	56	20.8	60	14.3	11	160.4	87
23	NA	Georgia	0.715	0.542	42	27.4	13	19.0	41	165.3	57
24	NA	Clemson	0.701	0.530	49	26.4	20	18.8	39	173.6	19
25	NA	Cincinnati	0.694	0.508	57	23.6	36	17.0	23	168.7	39

Rankings through games of 2012-10-28

New entries: BYU, Georgia, Clemson, Cincinnati.

Dropped out: Mississippi St., Texas Tech, Penn State, Rutgers.


Alabama continues to steamroll their opposition, putting up 25.7 PPH against what was at the time the 14th-ranked defense in FBS. This follows performances of 29.5 PPH against the 71st-ranked defense (UT), and 27.8 PPH against the 17th-ranked defense (Missouri). The Crimson Tide are brutally efficient; at 41.1 PPH, they are a full 6.7 PPH better than Kansas State, the second-best offense in FBS.

Oregon is a bit of an anomaly, though. They rack up an amazing number of points, but often take their foot off the gas in the second or third quarter. We don't have a play-by-play breakdown, otherwise we'd have much better data for Oregon. Needless to say, the Ducks are definitely better than their TFG ranking indicates, but their actual ceiling is hard to find.

LSU continues to drift downwards (falling from a ranking of 0.932 takes time, especially when their defense continues to do a halfway decent job), while Notre Dame continues its climb up the rankings. The Fighting Irish are legitimately good this year, and it's all thanks to defense. Their offense continues to struggle; if they want to be a serious threat to Alabama in a title game, they absolutely positively have to jump at least 4.0 PPH to crack the top five.

Generally speaking, everything is pretty muddled. Alabama is dominating a difficult schedule, but everyone else is either dominating a middling schedule (e.g., Oregon), squeaking by a difficult schedule (e.g., Notre Dame), or some combination of the two (e.g., Kansas State, Ohio State, and Louisville).

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 9: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Oct 28 04:58:04 2012

Hawaii	30	Colorado St.	28	5:30 3rd
Mississippi St.	7	Alabama	38	Final
UCLA	45	Arizona St.	43	Final
USC	36	Arizona	39	Final
Mississippi	30	Arkansas	27	Final
Texas A&M	63	Auburn	21	Final
Maryland	17	Boston College	20	Final
Eastern Michigan	3	Bowling Green	24	Final
Toledo	25	Buffalo	20	Final
Akron	14	Central Michigan	35	Final
Navy	56	East Carolina	28	Final
Troy	27	FL-Atlantic	34	Final
Western Kentucky	14	FIU	6	Final
Duke	7	Florida St.	48	Final
Georgia	17	Florida	9	Final
BYU	41	Georgia Tech	17	Final
UTEP	35	Houston	45	Final
Indiana	31	Illinois	17	Final
Baylor	21	Iowa St.	35	Final
Texas Tech	24	Kansas St.	55	Final
Texas	21	Kansas	17	Final
UCF	54	Marshall	17	Final
Ohio	20	Miami-OH	23	Final
North Texas	21	Middle Tenn.	38	Final
Purdue	28	Minnesota	44	Final
Kentucky	10	Missouri	33	Final
North Carolina St.	35	North Carolina	43	Final
Michigan	9	Nebraska	23	Final
LA Tech	28	New Mexico St.	14	Final
Fresno St.	49	New Mexico	32	Final
South Alabama	24	LA-Monroe	38	Final
Iowa	17	Northwestern	28	Final
TCU	14	Oklahoma St.	36	Final
Notre Dame	30	Oklahoma	13	Final
Colorado	14	Oregon	70	Final
Ohio St.	35	Penn State	23	Final
Temple	17	Pittsburgh	47	Final
Southern Miss.	17	Rice	44	Final
Kent St.	35	Rutgers	23	Final
UNLV	13	SDSU	24	Final
Texas State	20	SJSU	31	Final
Tennessee	35	South Carolina	38	Final
Syracuse	37	South Florida	36	Final
Memphis	13	SMU	44	Final
Washington St.	17	Stanford	24	Final
Utah St.	48	UTSA	17	Final
UAB	45	Tulane	55	Final
Ball St.	30	Army	22	Final
California	27	Utah	49	Final
Massachusetts	7	Vanderbilt	49	Final
Oregon St.	17	Washington	20	Final
Northern Ill.	48	Western Michigan	34	Final
Michigan St.	16	Wisconsin	13	Final
Boise St.	45	Wyoming	14	Final

Week 9: Saturday Predictions

1 Alabama 44  21 Mississippi St. 22

1 Alabama 35  22 Mississippi St. 14

39 Arizona 36  16 USC 39

51 Arizona 24  15 USC 35

33 Arizona St. 39  61 UCLA 31

21 Arizona St. 34  52 UCLA 20

26 Arkansas 40  51 Mississippi 32

38 Arkansas 34  60 Mississippi 24

103 Army 39  86 Ball St. 41

107 Army 32  93 Ball St. 31

64 Auburn 30  10 Texas A&M 37

84 Auburn 20  11 Texas A&M 31

99 Boston College 31  75 Maryland 33

89 Boston College 24  79 Maryland 25

91 Bowling Green 39 109 Eastern Michigan 28

90 Bowling Green 34 118 Eastern Michigan 20

115 Buffalo 31  57 Toledo 39

115 Buffalo 24  54 Toledo 38

106 Central Michigan 44 123 Akron 35

113 Central Michigan 35 123 Akron 27

114 Colorado St. 40 113 Hawaii 35

106 Colorado St. 31 111 Hawaii 24

88 East Carolina 35  78 Navy 33

80 East Carolina 31  85 Navy 24

94 FIU 34  70 Western Kentucky 36

100 FIU 24  68 Western Kentucky 31

119 FL-Atlantic 29  81 Troy 37

119 FL-Atlantic 21  92 Troy 31

4 Florida 39  28 Georgia 32

3 Florida 28  14 Georgia 20

7 Florida St. 46  76 Duke 27

12 Florida St. 42  64 Duke 14

66 Georgia Tech 34  30 BYU 35

62 Georgia Tech 24  28 BYU 25

56 Houston 41 104 UTEP 29

48 Houston 38 103 UTEP 21

93 Illinois 35  79 Indiana 34

81 Illinois 28  76 Indiana 27

53 Iowa St. 37  38 Baylor 35

74 Iowa St. 31  40 Baylor 32

105 Kansas 28  18 Texas 40

97 Kansas 17  32 Texas 45

15 Kansas St. 44  22 Texas Tech 35

9 Kansas St. 38  30 Texas Tech 27

63 LA-Monroe 43 117 South Alabama 26

58 LA-Monroe 41 116 South Alabama 13

85 Marshall 35  46 UCF 37

73 Marshall 27  50 UCF 31

111 Miami-OH 36  84 Ohio 40

105 Miami-OH 21  46 Ohio 34

102 Middle Tenn. 33  90 North Texas 35

88 Middle Tenn. 31  99 North Texas 24

95 Minnesota 31  65 Purdue 33

95 Minnesota 24  63 Purdue 31

36 Missouri 36  92 Kentucky 26

33 Missouri 38  82 Kentucky 10

25 Nebraska 35  12 Michigan 37

26 Nebraska 28  18 Michigan 29

110 New Mexico 30  45 Fresno St. 39

104 New Mexico 21  43 Fresno St. 38

122 New Mexico St. 32  42 LA Tech 48

121 New Mexico St. 24  31 LA Tech 45

34 North Carolina 35  54 North Carolina St. 28

35 North Carolina 28  45 North Carolina St. 21

49 Northwestern 35  44 Iowa 32

47 Northwestern 27  49 Iowa 24

3 Oklahoma 33   6 Notre Dame 29

4 Oklahoma 27   6 Notre Dame 20

14 Oklahoma St. 39  17 TCU 35

16 Oklahoma St. 41  20 TCU 31

5 Oregon 56 116 Colorado 24

2 Oregon 49 112 Colorado 14

23 Penn State 33  19 Ohio St. 31

24 Penn State 28  17 Ohio St. 27

43 Pittsburgh 34  58 Temple 30

70 Pittsburgh 28  65 Temple 21

101 Rice 34  82 Southern Miss. 36

101 Rice 32  94 Southern Miss. 31

24 Rutgers 36  83 Kent St. 25

19 Rutgers 38  98 Kent St. 7

50 SDSU 46 108 UNLV 30

61 SDSU 42 110 UNLV 20

80 SJSU 38  97 Texas State 32

71 SJSU 38 109 Texas State 21

74 SMU 41 120 Memphis 26

78 SMU 35 122 Memphis 17

11 South Carolina 42  41 Tennessee 31

7 South Carolina 38  55 Tennessee 17

59 South Florida 34  60 Syracuse 31

69 South Florida 27  72 Syracuse 24

8 Stanford 47 100 Washington St. 25

10 Stanford 42  96 Washington St. 14

121 Tulane 37 107 UAB 38

120 Tulane 31 108 UAB 34

62 Utah 32  48 California 30

59 Utah 24  37 California 25

112 UTSA 31  55 Utah St. 42

117 UTSA 21  34 Utah St. 48

69 Vanderbilt 42 124 Massachusetts 20

42 Vanderbilt 45 124 Massachusetts 7

72 Washington 32  32 Oregon St. 36

53 Washington 24  29 Oregon St. 28

89 Western Michigan 33  37 Northern Ill. 38

91 Western Michigan 21  57 Northern Ill. 31

13 Wisconsin 37  20 Michigan St. 28

13 Wisconsin 28  25 Michigan St. 20

98 Wyoming 26   9 Boise St. 39

87 Wyoming 17   8 Boise St. 35

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 9: Saturday Matchups

<!-- GOTW 20121027-1522-1513 76.9

Game of the Week

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Oklahoma Sooners

GUGS Score: 76.9

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
3	Oklahoma	0.896	0.614	20	26.9	18	11.4	3	173.6	18
6	Notre Dame	0.866	0.629	18	25.8	26	12.2	4	158.1	101

Oklahoma 33, Notre Dame 29 (68.0%); 165 plays

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
4	Oklahoma	0.983	0.546	21	23.2	7	9.2	7	171.6	16
6	Notre Dame	0.975	0.564	2	20.3	26	8.6	4	164.5	93

Both our systems have a tendency to overrate Oklahoma.  In RBA's case, it's not because they're super-efficient on offense.  It's because they're consistently efficient at 27.1 +/- 7.7 PPH.  If you can put up a reasonable number of points against everyone, you're most likely going to win.  In contrast, the Irish struggle offensively against quality opposition, 32.4 +/- 24.2 PPH.  That rarely matters thanks to their surprisingly good 9.7 +/- 2.1 PPH defense.  Realistically, this game is going to come down to the matchup between Oklahoma's offense and Notre Dame's defense.  The Irish can't afford to get into a shootout.  If everything goes according to plan, Oklahoma silences the echoes, 27-20, with 52.7% confidence.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones

GUGS Score: 49.9

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
74	Iowa St.	0.388	0.543	26	10.6	114	11.1	19	169.8	27
40	Baylor	0.681	0.563	3	25.2	3	20.6	104	173.4	10

Baylor's defense is a dreadful 7.6 +/- 25.9 PPH.  The thing is that they can score at will with a 31.5 +/- 12.6 PPH offense.  The Cyclones are going to have a hard time keeping up with the Bears.  Sure, they beat TCU, but they scored only 9 points against Iowa, 13 against Texas Tech, and 10 against Oklahoma State, resulting in a 6.3 +/- 8.5 PPH offense.  Their defense surrenders quite a few points, as well, suggesting that we're in for a shootout.  RBA says Baylor in a very close one, 32-31, with 62.1% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
53	Iowa St.	0.545	0.699	5	16.1	106	15.0	13	174.0	16
38	Baylor	0.606	0.641	16	27.3	16	23.0	78	184.9	4

Iowa St. 37, Baylor 35 (55.6%); 179 plays

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	39.40 - 14.60	72.96%
TFG	38.74 - 15.26	71.74%

-->

Week 9: Friday Predictions

68 Air Force 38  47 Nevada 37

67 Air Force 32  41 Nevada 31

40 Louisville 36  27 Cincinnati 35

36 Louisville 31  27 Cincinnati 28

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.