Monday, October 29, 2012

Week 10: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.981 0.599 24 41.4 1 8.6 1 147.8 124
2 -- LSU 0.900 0.634 16 27.0 14 11.2 2 158.9 97
3 +3 Notre Dame 0.885 0.652 11 26.6 18 11.8 3 158.5 98
4 +3 Florida St. 0.880 0.505 59 30.6 5 13.8 8 157.4 104
5 -2 Oklahoma 0.874 0.647 13 26.0 23 12.0 4 174.1 17
6 -2 Florida 0.867 0.664 9 26.3 22 12.4 5 157.5 102
7 -2 Oregon 0.863 0.495 65 31.6 3 15.1 13 179.2 8
8 +1 Boise St. 0.837 0.398 91 27.7 11 14.4 12 157.3 105
9 +1 Texas A&M 0.833 0.642 15 25.9 25 13.6 7 186.5 4
10 -2 Stanford 0.819 0.562 38 28.3 7 15.5 15 161.7 79
11 +4 Kansas St. 0.808 0.582 31 34.4 2 19.4 46 153.7 118
12 +2 Oklahoma St. 0.808 0.610 22 26.9 17 15.1 14 182.1 6
13 -2 South Carolina 0.799 0.585 28 27.8 10 16.0 18 157.9 100
14 -1 Wisconsin 0.797 0.530 48 31.2 4 18.1 30 153.7 119
15 -3 Michigan 0.788 0.585 29 28.1 9 16.6 19 153.4 120
16 -- USC 0.768 0.494 66 27.5 12 17.1 25 162.2 77
17 +2 Ohio St. 0.758 0.499 61 29.6 6 18.7 38 160.9 84
18 -1 TCU 0.751 0.504 60 26.5 19 17.0 22 161.2 83
19 +1 Michigan St. 0.751 0.614 21 20.0 69 12.8 6 162.6 72
20 +5 Nebraska 0.734 0.627 18 25.9 26 17.2 27 167.8 44
21 -3 Texas 0.722 0.571 34 28.3 8 19.3 44 161.7 80
22 NA BYU 0.720 0.509 56 20.8 60 14.3 11 160.4 87
23 NA Georgia 0.715 0.542 42 27.4 13 19.0 41 165.3 57
24 NA Clemson 0.701 0.530 49 26.4 20 18.8 39 173.6 19
25 NA Cincinnati 0.694 0.508 57 23.6 36 17.0 23 168.7 39
Rankings through games of 2012-10-28

New entries: BYU, Georgia, Clemson, Cincinnati.

Dropped out: Mississippi St., Texas Tech, Penn State, Rutgers.


Alabama continues to steamroll their opposition, putting up 25.7 PPH against what was at the time the 14th-ranked defense in FBS. This follows performances of 29.5 PPH against the 71st-ranked defense (UT), and 27.8 PPH against the 17th-ranked defense (Missouri). The Crimson Tide are brutally efficient; at 41.1 PPH, they are a full 6.7 PPH better than Kansas State, the second-best offense in FBS.

Oregon is a bit of an anomaly, though. They rack up an amazing number of points, but often take their foot off the gas in the second or third quarter. We don't have a play-by-play breakdown, otherwise we'd have much better data for Oregon. Needless to say, the Ducks are definitely better than their TFG ranking indicates, but their actual ceiling is hard to find.

LSU continues to drift downwards (falling from a ranking of 0.932 takes time, especially when their defense continues to do a halfway decent job), while Notre Dame continues its climb up the rankings. The Fighting Irish are legitimately good this year, and it's all thanks to defense. Their offense continues to struggle; if they want to be a serious threat to Alabama in a title game, they absolutely positively have to jump at least 4.0 PPH to crack the top five.

Generally speaking, everything is pretty muddled. Alabama is dominating a difficult schedule, but everyone else is either dominating a middling schedule (e.g., Oregon), squeaking by a difficult schedule (e.g., Notre Dame), or some combination of the two (e.g., Kansas State, Ohio State, and Louisville).


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