Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-10-28

With only a few weeks to go in the season, the question appears to be "who will play Alabama in the title game?" The two obvious contenders are Notre Dame and Oregon. Based on their remaining schedules, though, TFG things the Fighting Irish are more than twice as likely to finish the regular season undefeated. These numbers don't take into account a conference championship, though; Notre Dame, of course, doesn't have one, and Alabama would be a 9-to-1 favorite against Florida (and a 22-to-1 favorite against Georgia). Oregon would be a 2-to-1 favorite against likely Pac-12 South champ USC.

Currently there's a 1-in-19 chance that Alabama, Notre Dame, and Oregon will all win out going into the championship game, at which point it will come down to style and strength of schedule. Notre Dame has the better SOS, but the Ducks have been making their case for a return to the title game. They'll need strong showings against Stanford, USC (possibly twice), and Oregon State in order to make their case.

Kansas State is still in the hunt, but TFG is still skeptical about their defense and remaining schedule. They're firmly in the "Long Shots" category.


Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.981 1 0.599 24 41.4 1 8.6 1 147.8 124
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  15 Michigan 14 vs   1 Alabama 41 148 91.3%
2012/09/08  72 Western Kentucky 0 at   1 Alabama 35 130 99.2%
2012/09/15   1 Alabama 52 at  30 Arkansas 0 149 89.4%
2012/09/22 117 FL-Atlantic 7 at   1 Alabama 40 142 99.9%
2012/09/29  53 Mississippi 14 at   1 Alabama 33 154 99.1%
2012/10/13   1 Alabama 42 at  34 Missouri 10 151 94.8%
2012/10/20   1 Alabama 44 at  41 Tennessee 13 149 95.9%
2012/10/27  27 Mississippi St. 7 at   1 Alabama 38 148 96.4%
2012/11/03   1 Alabama 39 at   2 LSU 27 153 82.5%
2012/11/10   9 Texas A&M 28 at   1 Alabama 46 167 92.3%
2012/11/24  69 Auburn 23 at   1 Alabama 49 152 98.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.3
Most difficult game left: November 3, at LSU Tigers, 82.5%


Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.885 3 0.652 11 26.6 18 11.8 3 158.5 98
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  68 Navy 10 vs   3 Notre Dame 50 150 74.7%
2012/09/08  75 Purdue 17 at   3 Notre Dame 20 172 90.6%
2012/09/15   3 Notre Dame 20 at  19 Michigan St. 3 165 30.7%
2012/09/22  15 Michigan 6 at   3 Notre Dame 13 133 74.3%
2012/10/06   3 Notre Dame 41 vs  63 Miami-FL 3 154 78.0%
2012/10/13  10 Stanford 13 at   3 Notre Dame 20 165 65.5%
2012/10/20  22 BYU 14 at   3 Notre Dame 17 145 84.8%
2012/10/27   3 Notre Dame 30 at   5 Oklahoma 13 166 32.0%
2012/11/03  36 Pittsburgh 26 at   3 Notre Dame 36 159 83.9%
2012/11/10   3 Notre Dame 38 at  94 Boston College 22 161 93.8%
2012/11/17  90 Wake Forest 23 at   3 Notre Dame 39 162 94.2%
2012/11/24   3 Notre Dame 34 at  16 USC 31 160 69.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.9
Most difficult game left: November 24, at USC Trojans, 69.9%


Long Shots

Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.863 7 0.495 65 31.6 3 15.1 13 179.2 8
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  71 Arkansas St. 34 at   7 Oregon 57 208 91.2%
2012/09/08  49 Fresno St. 25 at   7 Oregon 42 199 95.1%
2012/09/22  37 Arizona 0 at   7 Oregon 49 200 84.0%
2012/09/29  96 Washington St. 26 vs   7 Oregon 51 194 95.1%
2012/10/06  74 Washington 21 at   7 Oregon 52 182 90.1%
2012/10/18   7 Oregon 43 at  32 Arizona St. 21 194 62.0%
2012/10/27 118 Colorado 14 at   7 Oregon 70 165 98.4%
2012/11/03   7 Oregon 40 at  16 USC 37 170 61.6%
2012/11/10   7 Oregon 43 at  64 California 30 172 84.6%
2012/11/17  10 Stanford 37 at   7 Oregon 40 170 58.2%
2012/11/24   7 Oregon 41 at  31 Oregon St. 31 170 76.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-4.3
Most difficult game left: November 17, vs Stanford Cardinal, 58.2%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.758 17 0.499 61 29.6 6 18.7 38 160.9 84
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01 109 Miami-OH 10 at  17 Ohio St. 56 193 89.0%
2012/09/08  42 UCF 16 at  17 Ohio St. 31 161 83.7%
2012/09/15  64 California 28 at  17 Ohio St. 35 176 84.0%
2012/09/22 112 UAB 15 at  17 Ohio St. 29 165 97.4%
2012/09/29  17 Ohio St. 17 at  19 Michigan St. 16 156 35.5%
2012/10/06  20 Nebraska 38 at  17 Ohio St. 63 166 58.2%
2012/10/13  17 Ohio St. 52 at  76 Indiana 49 195 83.5%
2012/10/20  75 Purdue 22 at  17 Ohio St. 29 164 84.5%
2012/10/27  17 Ohio St. 35 at  26 Penn State 23 175 41.6%
2012/11/03  98 Illinois 27 at  17 Ohio St. 42 158 90.4%
2012/11/17  17 Ohio St. 37 at  14 Wisconsin 39 157 44.5%
2012/11/24  15 Michigan 37 at  17 Ohio St. 35 157 45.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.4
Most difficult game left: November 17, at Wisconsin Badgers, 44.5%


Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.808 11 0.582 31 34.4 2 19.4 46 153.7 118
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  63 Miami-FL 13 at  11 Kansas St. 52 150 65.6%
2012/09/15  93 North Texas 21 at  11 Kansas St. 35 135 90.1%
2012/09/22  11 Kansas St. 24 at   5 Oklahoma 19 156 19.0%
2012/10/06 104 Kansas 16 at  11 Kansas St. 56 151 92.9%
2012/10/13  11 Kansas St. 27 at  46 Iowa St. 21 164 60.4%
2012/10/20  11 Kansas St. 55 at  39 West Virginia 14 147 50.4%
2012/10/27  29 Texas Tech 24 at  11 Kansas St. 55 166 70.4%
2012/11/03  12 Oklahoma St. 38 at  11 Kansas St. 42 167 54.4%
2012/11/10  11 Kansas St. 39 at  18 TCU 36 157 54.0%
2012/11/17  11 Kansas St. 48 at  45 Baylor 38 170 75.7%
2012/12/01  21 Texas 37 at  11 Kansas St. 42 157 61.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-7.3
Most difficult game left: November 10, at TCU Horned Frogs, 54.0%


Louisville Cardinals
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.614 40 0.498 62 27.0 15 22.5 71 152.0 122
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/02  97 Kentucky 14 at  40 Louisville 32 162 81.5%
2012/09/15  35 North Carolina 34 at  40 Louisville 39 154 72.4%
2012/09/22  40 Louisville 28 at  95 FIU 21 149 70.3%
2012/09/29  40 Louisville 21 at  88 Southern Miss. 17 142 57.9%
2012/10/13  40 Louisville 45 at  36 Pittsburgh 35 155 42.1%
2012/10/20  60 South Florida 25 at  40 Louisville 27 164 69.9%
2012/10/26  25 Cincinnati 31 at  40 Louisville 34 178 51.1%
2012/11/03  70 Temple 33 at  40 Louisville 39 153 69.3%
2012/11/10  40 Louisville 36 at  58 Syracuse 35 159 55.1%
2012/11/24  79 Connecticut 30 at  40 Louisville 35 155 70.1%
2012/11/29  40 Louisville 33 at  33 Rutgers 34 154 46.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-8.1
Most difficult game left: November 29, at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 46.2%


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