Game of the Week
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
GUGS Score: 76.7
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Notre Dame | 0.862 | 0.584 | 26 | 25.1 | 26 | 12.1 | 4 | 158.6 | 98 |
| 10 | Stanford | 0.827 | 0.557 | 33 | 31.2 | 4 | 16.7 | 21 | 161.9 | 74 |
This is the tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Fighting Irish have revamped their defense to legitimately become one of the top teams in FBS. Stanford, on the other hand, is still held in high esteem by the computers thanks to the residual statistics of Andrew Luck and his influence on the Cardinal's offensive efficiency. The numbers say Notre Dame are 2-to-1 favorites, but realistically I expect them to have better odds here. Notre Dame 34, Stanford 33 (65.5%); 160 plays.
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Notre Dame | 0.966 | 0.565 | 2 | 20.3 | 26 | 8.6 | 7 | 164.6 | 91 |
| 6 | Stanford | 0.966 | 0.542 | 30 | 22.0 | 15 | 12.1 | 26 | 167.3 | 54 |
I never thought I'd see the day when Notre Dame would be favored against a good team, but here we are. The Irish have a slight offensive edge at 32.1 +/- 23.5 PPH but lack Stanford's 28.0 +/- 10.3 PPH consistency. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has the consistency at 10.4 +/- 3.6 PPH over the Cardinal's 7.0 +/- 10.3 PPH. RBA picks Notre Dame, 27-20, but this game is essentially a toss-up at 50.0% confidence.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
GUGS Score: 66.4
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | Baylor | 0.769 | 0.559 | 4 | 25.6 | 3 | 20.0 | 100 | 173.4 | 9 |
| 27 | TCU | 0.798 | 0.461 | 99 | 18.3 | 36 | 13.1 | 36 | 167.7 | 50 |
RBA doesn't know anything about Casey Paschall's DWI suspension, but I'm feeling pretty good about this pick. Even without losing their starting quarterback, TCU was going to have a struggle on their hands. The Bears are rolling on offense at 29.4 +/- 7.7 PPH, and TCU's once stout defense has struggled recently at 1.4 +/- 23.4 PPH. Granted, Baylor has an even bigger sieve at 9.3 +/- 21.4 PPH, but TCU can't match their offensive firepower. RBA picks Baylor, 38-34, with 63.9% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Baylor | 0.670 | 0.604 | 21 | 29.5 | 11 | 22.2 | 74 | 186.2 | 2 |
| 17 | TCU | 0.778 | 0.396 | 101 | 27.0 | 19 | 16.3 | 17 | 158.6 | 97 |
This is yet another game where TFG is still adjusting to roster changes. Not only were there all the changes from last year, but as Eddie pointed out there's a new QB for TCU this week. If only I had had the good sense to put my thumb on the scales and had the computer pick a different Coin Toss game this week. As it is I have to hope that Baylor's defense is still atrocious enough to let TCU pile up more points than the Bears. Good luck, Horned Frogs. TCU 41, Baylor 39 (54.4%); 172 plays.
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 36.61 - 13.39 | 73.22% |
| TFG | 36.12 - 13.88 | 72.24% |
