| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 0.980 | 0.574 | 28 | 38.9 | 1 | 8.2 | 1 | 148.4 | 123 |
| 2 | -- | LSU | 0.913 | 0.613 | 18 | 29.6 | 10 | 11.5 | 2 | 154.4 | 112 |
| 3 | +5 | South Carolina | 0.863 | 0.525 | 51 | 29.8 | 9 | 14.3 | 10 | 153.3 | 117 |
| 4 | +7 | Notre Dame | 0.862 | 0.584 | 26 | 25.1 | 26 | 12.1 | 4 | 158.6 | 98 |
| 5 | -1 | Oregon | 0.859 | 0.524 | 53 | 31.1 | 5 | 15.1 | 12 | 181.0 | 7 |
| 6 | +3 | Florida | 0.855 | 0.663 | 6 | 26.3 | 21 | 12.9 | 7 | 156.1 | 109 |
| 7 | -2 | Oklahoma | 0.852 | 0.620 | 15 | 24.3 | 32 | 12.1 | 3 | 173.7 | 19 |
| 8 | -5 | Florida St. | 0.847 | 0.553 | 38 | 29.1 | 13 | 14.7 | 11 | 156.8 | 105 |
| 9 | -3 | Texas A&M | 0.833 | 0.616 | 16 | 24.4 | 30 | 12.8 | 6 | 183.6 | 4 |
| 10 | -3 | Stanford | 0.827 | 0.557 | 33 | 31.2 | 4 | 16.7 | 21 | 161.9 | 74 |
| 11 | +3 | Boise St. | 0.817 | 0.423 | 89 | 29.0 | 15 | 15.9 | 16 | 158.3 | 100 |
| 12 | -- | Texas | 0.806 | 0.570 | 31 | 29.2 | 12 | 16.5 | 20 | 160.4 | 87 |
| 13 | +2 | Oklahoma St. | 0.792 | 0.639 | 12 | 29.9 | 8 | 17.5 | 27 | 182.1 | 6 |
| 14 | +6 | Ohio St. | 0.792 | 0.520 | 55 | 28.6 | 17 | 16.8 | 22 | 159.6 | 92 |
| 15 | -2 | Wisconsin | 0.786 | 0.531 | 46 | 31.8 | 3 | 18.9 | 40 | 153.8 | 115 |
| 16 | +5 | Michigan | 0.783 | 0.582 | 27 | 31.0 | 6 | 18.6 | 37 | 153.7 | 116 |
| 17 | -7 | TCU | 0.778 | 0.396 | 101 | 27.0 | 19 | 16.3 | 17 | 158.6 | 97 |
| 18 | -2 | USC | 0.773 | 0.554 | 36 | 28.7 | 16 | 17.6 | 28 | 161.9 | 76 |
| 19 | -2 | Michigan St. | 0.746 | 0.553 | 39 | 21.3 | 54 | 13.8 | 9 | 161.7 | 78 |
| 20 | +2 | Kansas St. | 0.744 | 0.546 | 41 | 31.9 | 2 | 20.8 | 58 | 154.2 | 113 |
| 21 | +4 | Cincinnati | 0.743 | 0.492 | 64 | 25.8 | 24 | 16.9 | 24 | 167.3 | 45 |
| 22 | -4 | Nebraska | 0.737 | 0.622 | 14 | 27.6 | 18 | 18.3 | 32 | 167.2 | 46 |
| 23 | -- | BYU | 0.737 | 0.444 | 81 | 19.0 | 76 | 12.6 | 5 | 161.3 | 81 |
| 24 | -5 | Georgia | 0.736 | 0.539 | 43 | 29.0 | 14 | 19.2 | 41 | 166.1 | 52 |
| 25 | NA | West Virginia | 0.729 | 0.571 | 30 | 29.9 | 7 | 20.1 | 48 | 172.6 | 21 |
Rankings through games of 2012-10-07
LSU loses and doesn't fall. Texas loses and doesn't fall. West Virginia wins and just barely sneaks into the top 25. Oregon wins big and slips. WHAT IS GOING ON HERE?!??
The short of it is that TFG is very conservative in reacting to wins and losses. Yes, LSU lost to Florida. But the Gators are a top-10 team, were playing at home, and still only scored 14 points against LSU. Oregon, on the other hand, gave up 21 points to the 68th-ranked team in the country. Tip to Oregon fans: don't let a middle-of-the-pack team hang three touchdowns on you, and then you can complain about how my computer doesn't respect you.
The Mountaineers are another team on whom my computer is not yet sold. Yes, their offense puts up big numbers, and only some of it is their pace. TFG is slowly buying into the fact that the Mountaineers are both quick and efficient, but is worried that giving up ~35 points per game (or about 20 Points/100 plays) isn't exactly the best way to win a lot of games.
In the meantime, it seems my computer has secretly become an SEC and Notre Dame homer. That's a shame, because I started this analytical kick in order to uncover the truth about college football teams, not to support the conventional wisdom. The truth is, though, that the Fighting Irish haven't surrendered a touchdown in their last 3 games (Miami, Michigan, and Michigan State) and are now sporting the 4th-best defensive efficiency in FBS. Defense will get you far in the TFG rankings, and for good reason.
In the end, though, even at this early in the year it's still Alabama's title to lose, and everyone else is just playing for second place.
New entries: West Virginia.
Dropped out: Virginia Tech.
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