Game of the Week
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Oklahoma Sooners
GUGS Score: 76.9
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Oklahoma | 0.896 | 0.614 | 20 | 26.9 | 18 | 11.4 | 3 | 173.6 | 18 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 0.866 | 0.629 | 18 | 25.8 | 26 | 12.2 | 4 | 158.1 | 101 |
Oklahoma 33, Notre Dame 29 (68.0%); 165 plays
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Oklahoma | 0.983 | 0.546 | 21 | 23.2 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | 171.6 | 16 |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 0.975 | 0.564 | 2 | 20.3 | 26 | 8.6 | 4 | 164.5 | 93 |
Both our systems have a tendency to overrate Oklahoma. In RBA's case, it's not because they're super-efficient on offense. It's because they're consistently efficient at 27.1 +/- 7.7 PPH. If you can put up a reasonable number of points against everyone, you're most likely going to win. In contrast, the Irish struggle offensively against quality opposition, 32.4 +/- 24.2 PPH. That rarely matters thanks to their surprisingly good 9.7 +/- 2.1 PPH defense. Realistically, this game is going to come down to the matchup between Oklahoma's offense and Notre Dame's defense. The Irish can't afford to get into a shootout. If everything goes according to plan, Oklahoma silences the echoes, 27-20, with 52.7% confidence.
Coin Toss Game of the Week
Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones
GUGS Score: 49.9
Eddie
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | Iowa St. | 0.388 | 0.543 | 26 | 10.6 | 114 | 11.1 | 19 | 169.8 | 27 |
| 40 | Baylor | 0.681 | 0.563 | 3 | 25.2 | 3 | 20.6 | 104 | 173.4 | 10 |
Baylor's defense is a dreadful 7.6 +/- 25.9 PPH. The thing is that they can score at will with a 31.5 +/- 12.6 PPH offense. The Cyclones are going to have a hard time keeping up with the Bears. Sure, they beat TCU, but they scored only 9 points against Iowa, 13 against Texas Tech, and 10 against Oklahoma State, resulting in a 6.3 +/- 8.5 PPH offense. Their defense surrenders quite a few points, as well, suggesting that we're in for a shootout. RBA says Baylor in a very close one, 32-31, with 62.1% confidence.
Justin
| Team | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | Iowa St. | 0.545 | 0.699 | 5 | 16.1 | 106 | 15.0 | 13 | 174.0 | 16 |
| 38 | Baylor | 0.606 | 0.641 | 16 | 27.3 | 16 | 23.0 | 78 | 184.9 | 4 |
Iowa St. 37, Baylor 35 (55.6%); 179 plays
| System | Expected W - L | Expected % Correct |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 39.40 - 14.60 | 72.96% |
| TFG | 38.74 - 15.26 | 71.74% |
