Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-10-21


Legitimate Title Contenders

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.978 1 0.594 29 39.9 1 8.7 1 148.1 124
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  12 Michigan 14 vs   1 Alabama 41 148 91.3%
2012/09/08  70 Western Kentucky 0 at   1 Alabama 35 130 99.2%
2012/09/15   1 Alabama 52 at  26 Arkansas 0 149 89.4%
2012/09/22 119 FL-Atlantic 7 at   1 Alabama 40 142 99.9%
2012/09/29  51 Mississippi 14 at   1 Alabama 33 154 99.1%
2012/10/13   1 Alabama 42 at  36 Missouri 10 151 94.8%
2012/10/20   1 Alabama 44 at  41 Tennessee 13 149 95.9%
2012/10/27  21 Mississippi St. 22 at   1 Alabama 44 155 96.4%
2012/11/03   1 Alabama 38 at   2 LSU 28 153 80.4%
2012/11/10  10 Texas A&M 27 at   1 Alabama 45 168 91.7%
2012/11/24  64 Auburn 22 at   1 Alabama 46 153 97.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.4
Most difficult game left: November 3, at LSU Tigers, 80.4%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Florida Gators
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.879 4 0.656 12 28.1 11 12.7 5 157.8 103
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  91 Bowling Green 14 at   4 Florida 27 173 93.1%
2012/09/08   4 Florida 20 at  10 Texas A&M 17 159 34.8%
2012/09/15   4 Florida 37 at  41 Tennessee 20 168 55.0%
2012/09/22  92 Kentucky 0 at   4 Florida 38 157 89.6%
2012/10/06   2 LSU 6 at   4 Florida 14 147 36.4%
2012/10/13   4 Florida 31 at  69 Vanderbilt 17 162 83.8%
2012/10/20  11 South Carolina 11 at   4 Florida 44 162 55.9%
2012/10/27  28 Georgia 32 vs   4 Florida 39 161 76.8%
2012/11/03  36 Missouri 26 at   4 Florida 36 163 83.9%
2012/11/10  71 LA-Lafayette 27 at   4 Florida 42 164 91.7%
2012/11/24   4 Florida 34 at   7 Florida St. 32 157 53.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-3.2
Most difficult game left: November 24, at Florida State Seminoles, 53.7%


Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.867 5 0.539 41 31.5 4 14.9 12 181.3 7
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  77 Arkansas St. 34 at   5 Oregon 57 208 91.2%
2012/09/08  45 Fresno St. 25 at   5 Oregon 42 199 95.1%
2012/09/22  39 Arizona 0 at   5 Oregon 49 200 84.0%
2012/09/29 100 Washington St. 26 vs   5 Oregon 51 194 95.1%
2012/10/06  72 Washington 21 at   5 Oregon 52 182 90.1%
2012/10/18   5 Oregon 43 at  33 Arizona St. 21 194 62.0%
2012/10/27 116 Colorado 24 at   5 Oregon 56 172 98.4%
2012/11/03   5 Oregon 40 at  16 USC 37 170 59.8%
2012/11/10   5 Oregon 41 at  48 California 30 174 80.9%
2012/11/17   8 Stanford 38 at   5 Oregon 40 171 55.3%
2012/11/24   5 Oregon 41 at  32 Oregon St. 32 172 76.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-5.0
Most difficult game left: November 17, vs Stanford Cardinal, 55.3%


Long Shots

Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.706 24 0.470 71 22.1 46 15.6 17 157.0 108
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  24 Rutgers 24 at 121 Tulane 12 149 84.8%
2012/09/13  24 Rutgers 23 at  59 South Florida 13 174 34.3%
2012/09/22  24 Rutgers 35 at  26 Arkansas 26 166 30.8%
2012/10/06  73 Connecticut 3 at  24 Rutgers 19 149 62.5%
2012/10/13  60 Syracuse 15 at  24 Rutgers 23 160 78.4%
2012/10/20  24 Rutgers 35 at  58 Temple 10 142 45.1%
2012/10/27  83 Kent St. 25 at  24 Rutgers 36 159 86.7%
2012/11/10 103 Army 28 at  24 Rutgers 44 157 90.1%
2012/11/17  24 Rutgers 32 at  27 Cincinnati 30 161 51.2%
2012/11/24  24 Rutgers 32 at  43 Pittsburgh 28 158 63.4%
2012/11/29  40 Louisville 32 at  24 Rutgers 34 153 61.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.4
Most difficult game left: November 17, at Cincinnati Bearcats, 51.2%


Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.866 6 0.629 18 25.8 26 12.2 4 158.1 101
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  78 Navy 10 vs   6 Notre Dame 50 150 74.7%
2012/09/08  65 Purdue 17 at   6 Notre Dame 20 172 90.6%
2012/09/15   6 Notre Dame 20 at  20 Michigan St. 3 165 30.7%
2012/09/22  12 Michigan 6 at   6 Notre Dame 13 133 74.3%
2012/10/06   6 Notre Dame 41 vs  67 Miami-FL 3 154 78.0%
2012/10/13   8 Stanford 13 at   6 Notre Dame 20 165 65.5%
2012/10/20  30 BYU 14 at   6 Notre Dame 17 145 84.8%
2012/10/27   6 Notre Dame 29 at   3 Oklahoma 33 165 32.0%
2012/11/03  43 Pittsburgh 25 at   6 Notre Dame 35 159 84.7%
2012/11/10   6 Notre Dame 38 at  99 Boston College 22 161 93.4%
2012/11/17  87 Wake Forest 24 at   6 Notre Dame 39 162 92.3%
2012/11/24   6 Notre Dame 34 at  16 USC 32 159 63.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-6.7
Most difficult game left: October 27, at Oklahoma Sooners, 32.0%


Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.789 15 0.576 34 33.6 2 19.8 49 153.1 120
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  67 Miami-FL 13 at  15 Kansas St. 52 150 65.6%
2012/09/15  90 North Texas 21 at  15 Kansas St. 35 135 90.1%
2012/09/22  15 Kansas St. 24 at   3 Oklahoma 19 156 19.0%
2012/10/06 105 Kansas 16 at  15 Kansas St. 56 151 92.9%
2012/10/13  15 Kansas St. 27 at  53 Iowa St. 21 164 60.4%
2012/10/20  15 Kansas St. 55 at  35 West Virginia 14 147 50.4%
2012/10/27  22 Texas Tech 35 at  15 Kansas St. 44 165 70.4%
2012/11/03  14 Oklahoma St. 38 at  15 Kansas St. 42 167 54.3%
2012/11/10  15 Kansas St. 37 at  17 TCU 39 156 46.5%
2012/11/17  15 Kansas St. 47 at  38 Baylor 39 168 71.0%
2012/12/01  18 Texas 38 at  15 Kansas St. 41 158 55.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-14.3
Most difficult game left: November 10, at TCU Horned Frogs, 46.5%


Ohio Bobcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.371 84 0.230 123 21.2 52 26.2 103 169.4 35
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  84 Ohio 24 at  23 Penn State 14 179 20.7%
2012/09/08 122 New Mexico St. 24 at  84 Ohio 51 170 91.8%
2012/09/15  84 Ohio 27 at  85 Marshall 24 200 59.0%
2012/09/29  84 Ohio 37 at 124 Massachusetts 34 192 97.2%
2012/10/06 115 Buffalo 31 at  84 Ohio 38 185 83.2%
2012/10/13 123 Akron 28 at  84 Ohio 34 193 91.5%
2012/10/27  84 Ohio 40 at 111 Miami-OH 36 166 63.7%
2012/11/01 109 Eastern Michigan 35 at  84 Ohio 44 162 75.0%
2012/11/07  91 Bowling Green 33 at  84 Ohio 34 165 58.7%
2012/11/14  84 Ohio 38 at  86 Ball St. 39 172 47.4%
2012/11/23  84 Ohio 35 at  83 Kent St. 36 165 49.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-15.1
Most difficult game left: November 14, at Ball State Cardinals, 47.4%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.740 19 0.496 57 28.5 10 18.7 40 160.5 88
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01 111 Miami-OH 10 at  19 Ohio St. 56 193 89.0%
2012/09/08  46 UCF 16 at  19 Ohio St. 31 161 83.7%
2012/09/15  48 California 28 at  19 Ohio St. 35 176 84.0%
2012/09/22 107 UAB 15 at  19 Ohio St. 29 165 97.4%
2012/09/29  19 Ohio St. 17 at  20 Michigan St. 16 156 35.5%
2012/10/06  25 Nebraska 38 at  19 Ohio St. 63 166 58.2%
2012/10/13  19 Ohio St. 52 at  79 Indiana 49 195 83.5%
2012/10/20  65 Purdue 22 at  19 Ohio St. 29 164 84.5%
2012/10/27  19 Ohio St. 31 at  23 Penn State 33 163 41.6%
2012/11/03  93 Illinois 27 at  19 Ohio St. 41 158 88.4%
2012/11/17  19 Ohio St. 36 at  13 Wisconsin 40 157 41.3%
2012/11/24  12 Michigan 38 at  19 Ohio St. 35 157 38.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-16.9
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Michigan Wolverines, 38.9%


Absolute Phonies

Louisville Cardinals
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.599 40 0.486 64 26.9 19 23.0 77 150.5 122
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/02  92 Kentucky 14 at  40 Louisville 32 162 81.5%
2012/09/15  34 North Carolina 34 at  40 Louisville 39 154 72.4%
2012/09/22  40 Louisville 28 at  94 FIU 21 149 70.3%
2012/09/29  40 Louisville 21 at  82 Southern Miss. 17 142 57.9%
2012/10/13  40 Louisville 45 at  43 Pittsburgh 35 155 42.1%
2012/10/20  59 South Florida 25 at  40 Louisville 27 164 69.9%
2012/10/26  27 Cincinnati 35 at  40 Louisville 36 158 51.0%
2012/11/03  58 Temple 33 at  40 Louisville 37 152 61.5%
2012/11/10  40 Louisville 36 at  60 Syracuse 34 158 53.5%
2012/11/24  73 Connecticut 30 at  40 Louisville 35 155 67.9%
2012/11/29  40 Louisville 32 at  24 Rutgers 34 153 38.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-22.9
Most difficult game left: November 29, at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 38.3%


What are YOU doing here??

Oregon State Beavers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.672 32 0.597 26 23.0 39 17.2 25 162.8 71
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  13 Wisconsin 7 at  32 Oregon St. 10 162 16.1%
2012/09/22  32 Oregon St. 27 at  61 UCLA 20 180 33.7%
2012/09/29  32 Oregon St. 38 at  39 Arizona 35 197 42.3%
2012/10/06 100 Washington St. 6 at  32 Oregon St. 19 156 80.5%
2012/10/13  32 Oregon St. 42 at  30 BYU 24 174 24.7%
2012/10/20  62 Utah 7 at  32 Oregon St. 21 152 72.0%
2012/10/27  32 Oregon St. 36 at  72 Washington 32 159 64.2%
2012/11/03  33 Arizona St. 34 at  32 Oregon St. 35 167 54.6%
2012/11/10  32 Oregon St. 30 at   8 Stanford 38 162 24.8%
2012/11/17  48 California 30 at  32 Oregon St. 33 164 61.2%
2012/11/24   5 Oregon 41 at  32 Oregon St. 32 172 23.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-78.6
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Oregon Ducks, 23.9%


Mississippi State Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.722 21 0.462 75 22.1 47 15.1 14 162.0 78
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  64 Auburn 10 at  21 Mississippi St. 28 152 66.1%
2012/09/15  21 Mississippi St. 30 at  81 Troy 24 174 81.6%
2012/09/22 117 South Alabama 10 at  21 Mississippi St. 30 166 95.6%
2012/10/06  21 Mississippi St. 27 at  92 Kentucky 14 163 69.6%
2012/10/13  41 Tennessee 31 at  21 Mississippi St. 41 166 68.3%
2012/10/20 102 Middle Tenn. 3 at  21 Mississippi St. 45 156 88.4%
2012/10/27  21 Mississippi St. 22 at   1 Alabama 44 155 3.6%
2012/11/03  10 Texas A&M 33 at  21 Mississippi St. 31 175 39.3%
2012/11/10  21 Mississippi St. 26 at   2 LSU 34 160 19.3%
2012/11/17  26 Arkansas 32 at  21 Mississippi St. 34 163 52.6%
2012/11/24  21 Mississippi St. 34 at  51 Mississippi 30 162 67.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1025.4
Most difficult game left: October 27, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 3.6%


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