Week 14: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Nov 30 21:28:04 2012

Northern Ill.	44	Kent St.	37	Final
UCLA	24	Stanford	27	Final

Week 14: Friday Predictions

66 Kent St. 31  27 Northern Ill. 38

62 Kent St. 28  59 Northern Ill. 27

8 Stanford 38  46 UCLA 30

14 Stanford 31  27 UCLA 21

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14 RBA Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,Western Athletic

Projected conference champions

• Pac-12: Stanford
• SEC: Alabama
• Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
• Western Athletic: Utah St.

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: SEC,Pac-12,Sun Belt,Western Athletic

Projected conference champions

• Pac-12: Stanford
• SEC: Alabama
• Sun Belt: Arkansas St.
• Western Athletic: Utah St.

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Nov 29 20:58:04 2012

Louisville

20

Rutgers

17

Final

Week 14: Thursday Predictions

30 Rutgers 33  48 Louisville 32

20 Rutgers 28  52 Louisville 24

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14 RBA Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Mountain West

Projected conference champions

• Big Ten: Ohio St.
• Big XII: Kansas St.
• Mid-American: Northern Ill.
• Mountain West: Boise St.

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: Big Ten,Big XII,Mid-American,Mountain West

Projected conference champions

• Big Ten: Nebraska
• Big XII: Kansas St.
• Mid-American: Northern Ill.
• Mountain West: Boise St.

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 RBA Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.
• Big East: Rutgers
• Conference-USA: Tulsa
• Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions

• ACC: Florida St.
• Big East: Rutgers
• Conference-USA: UCF
• Independents: Notre Dame

Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Locks

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.924	13	0.530	49	21.5	20	13.0	30	159.8	118

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2012/09/01	92	Miami-OH	10	at	23	Ohio St.	56	193	85.8%
2012/09/08	62	UCF	16	at	20	Ohio St.	31	161	71.7%
2012/09/15	50	California	28	at	20	Ohio St.	35	176	71.4%
2012/09/22	115	UAB	15	at	19	Ohio St.	29	165	93.1%
2012/09/29	21	Ohio St.	17	at	19	Michigan St.	16	156	42.7%
2012/10/06	20	Nebraska	38	at	11	Ohio St.	63	166	51.1%
2012/10/13	9	Ohio St.	52	at	82	Indiana	49	195	89.8%
2012/10/20	63	Purdue	22	at	17	Ohio St.	29	164	78.1%
2012/10/27	12	Ohio St.	35	at	26	Penn State	23	174	48.8%
2012/11/03	90	Illinois	22	at	13	Ohio St.	52	175	84.9%
2012/11/17	14	Ohio St.	21	at	19	Wisconsin	14	169	43.3%
2012/11/24	22	Michigan	21	at	13	Ohio St.	26	142	61.7%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.992	3	0.567	1	18.7	36	7.2	2	164.4	99

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2012/09/01	75	Navy	10	vs	20	Notre Dame	50	150	77.7%
2012/09/08	73	Purdue	17	at	17	Notre Dame	20	172	79.4%
2012/09/15	6	Notre Dame	20	at	15	Michigan St.	3	165	49.1%
2012/09/22	22	Michigan	6	at	13	Notre Dame	13	133	50.1%
2012/10/06	9	Notre Dame	41	vs	56	Miami-FL	3	154	80.4%
2012/10/13	13	Stanford	13	at	7	Notre Dame	20	165	50.0%
2012/10/20	28	BYU	14	at	6	Notre Dame	17	145	60.6%
2012/10/27	5	Notre Dame	30	at	8	Oklahoma	13	166	47.3%
2012/11/03	41	Pittsburgh	26	at	7	Notre Dame	29	199	86.7%
2012/11/10	3	Notre Dame	21	at	98	Boston College	6	150	93.5%
2012/11/17	91	Wake Forest	0	at	4	Notre Dame	38	152	91.4%
2012/11/24	3	Notre Dame	22	at	17	USC	13	142	52.3%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Two teams have finished out their season undefeated and they ... will not face each other for the title. Thanks to Tattoo-gate, the Ohio State Buckeyes are banned from postseason play this year, and won't even get a chance to play for the Big Ten title. In a way this might actually be good for Ohio State, since TFG ranks them just behind 2006 Boise State and 2004 Utah in terms of undefeated regular season teams that didn't or couldn't play for a title. An interesting footnote: the coach of that 2004 Utah squad with the top-notch offense and middling defense? Urban Meyer.

This brings us to Notre Dame. I've seen many stories talking about how the Irish won't stack up to the SEC champion and will be exposed as frauds in the title game. I will say that if Notre Dame plays Alabama, they will be significant underdogs. But if somehow they get matched up with Georgia, that will be much more of a fair fight. Notre Dame has good wins over (8) Stanford, (9) Oklahoma, (16) Michigan, (18) USC, and (20) Michigan State. TFG ranks their SOS at #21, which is pretty even with Alabama (#19) and miles ahead of Georgia (#50).

The clear favorite for the title right now, though, is Alabama. TFG has them as 90% likely to beat Georgia, and currently puts them as 82.1% against Notre Dame. The Crimson Tide have the top-rated offense and the top-rated defense in FBS. The Irish have the second-best defense, but lag behind both Alabama and Georgia in offense; they've been able to move the ball, but have had trouble getting it into the end zone (see: five FGs against USC, including three from inside the 12).

Georgia has the most difficult path, though. They're heavy underdogs to Alabama (only 10% likely to win), and as it stands right now they'd have a 1-in-3 shot against Notre Dame. This adds up to a 3.4% chance of the Bulldogs taking the BCS title. Georgia has the weakest defense of the three contenders, and definitely has the weakest SOS. The only TFG top 25 the Bulldogs have faced this year are (4) Florida and (11) South Carolina. In their win over Florida, the Gators coughed up the ball six times, and the Bulldogs got 10 of their 17 points on drives that started inside the Gator 30 thanks to Florida turnovers. That type of luck won't strike twice, so Georgia will really need to play better defense to slow down Alabama.

In short, here are your current BCS title odds:

Winner	Odds
Alabama	73.9%
Notre Dame	22.7%
Georgia	3.4%

Locks

Ohio State Buckeyes*
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.762	19	0.530	52	28.8	8	18.1	37	162.1	83

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2012/09/01	80	Miami-OH	10	at	22	Ohio St.	56	193	89.0%
2012/09/08	52	UCF	16	at	15	Ohio St.	31	161	83.7%
2012/09/15	47	California	28	at	13	Ohio St.	35	176	84.0%
2012/09/22	114	UAB	15	at	16	Ohio St.	29	165	97.4%
2012/09/29	19	Ohio St.	17	at	16	Michigan St.	16	156	35.5%
2012/10/06	18	Nebraska	38	at	20	Ohio St.	63	166	58.2%
2012/10/13	14	Ohio St.	52	at	86	Indiana	49	195	83.5%
2012/10/20	68	Purdue	22	at	19	Ohio St.	29	164	84.5%
2012/10/27	19	Ohio St.	35	at	23	Penn State	23	174	41.5%
2012/11/03	98	Illinois	22	at	17	Ohio St.	52	175	90.4%
2012/11/17	19	Ohio St.	21	at	10	Wisconsin	14	169	38.7%
2012/11/24	14	Michigan	21	at	19	Ohio St.	26	142	45.4%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.887	2	0.606	21	25.7	24	11.3	2	157.6	103

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2012/09/01	59	Navy	10	vs	16	Notre Dame	50	150	74.7%
2012/09/08	71	Purdue	17	at	13	Notre Dame	20	172	90.6%
2012/09/15	16	Notre Dame	20	at	9	Michigan St.	3	165	30.7%
2012/09/22	24	Michigan	6	at	11	Notre Dame	13	133	74.3%
2012/10/06	11	Notre Dame	41	vs	44	Miami-FL	3	154	78.0%
2012/10/13	10	Stanford	13	at	4	Notre Dame	20	165	65.5%
2012/10/20	31	BYU	14	at	4	Notre Dame	17	145	84.8%
2012/10/27	6	Notre Dame	30	at	3	Oklahoma	13	166	32.0%
2012/11/03	36	Pittsburgh	26	at	3	Notre Dame	29	199	83.9%
2012/11/10	4	Notre Dame	21	at	97	Boston College	6	150	93.5%
2012/11/17	94	Wake Forest	0	at	5	Notre Dame	38	152	94.0%
2012/11/24	2	Notre Dame	22	at	18	USC	13	142	71.1%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.0

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-25

Week 14: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Iowa St. (0.100); Ball St. (0.088); Connecticut (0.084); Miami-FL (0.070); Hawaii (0.060)

Biggest drops: Ohio (-0.162); Louisville (-0.160); Virginia Tech (-0.081); UNLV (-0.071); LA Tech (-0.053)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	1.000	0.549	15	26.5	2	5.5	1	156.2	124
2	--	Oregon	0.992	0.530	50	27.9	1	11.4	20	177.1	3
3	+1	Notre Dame	0.992	0.567	1	18.7	36	7.2	2	164.4	99
4	+1	Florida	0.983	0.559	5	18.1	42	8.9	3	161.2	114
5	-2	LSU	0.975	0.548	16	22.9	10	9.0	4	160.4	116
6	+3	Georgia	0.975	0.544	25	23.5	5	10.9	14	160.0	117
7	+1	Texas A&M	0.967	0.555	8	25.9	3	11.3	19	173.7	10
8	-2	Kansas St.	0.966	0.530	48	25.2	4	14.1	41	165.7	78
9	-2	South Carolina	0.942	0.545	22	23.2	7	9.7	6	158.0	123
10	--	Oklahoma St.	0.942	0.554	9	23.4	6	13.8	38	174.2	8
11	--	Oklahoma	0.924	0.546	20	23.1	9	11.9	24	172.0	14
12	--	Boise St.	0.924	0.465	93	19.2	29	9.7	7	168.0	51
13	+1	Ohio St.	0.924	0.530	49	21.5	20	13.0	30	159.8	118
14	-1	Stanford	0.917	0.543	29	20.5	23	9.8	8	167.2	60
15	+1	Florida St.	0.892	0.547	17	22.5	15	9.5	5	165.7	81
16	+3	Wisconsin	0.882	0.531	47	20.8	22	11.0	16	161.6	112
17	--	USC	0.881	0.535	40	22.7	12	11.5	22	167.0	68
18	-3	Clemson	0.874	0.527	56	23.2	8	13.9	39	168.1	48
19	+1	Nebraska	0.863	0.533	45	18.7	35	11.5	23	167.1	65
20	-2	Rutgers	0.855	0.499	67	14.0	87	10.1	11	164.5	94
21	+2	Oregon St.	0.849	0.547	18	17.7	49	10.7	13	170.9	22
22	-1	Michigan	0.849	0.545	24	22.5	14	11.2	18	166.4	73
23	NA	Penn State	0.838	0.539	32	16.6	59	9.8	9	164.5	95
24	-2	Utah St.	0.838	0.494	70	17.5	53	11.5	21	169.0	33
25	--	Michigan St.	0.814	0.545	23	15.4	73	10.0	10	166.9	69

Rankings through games of 2012-11-25

New entries: Penn State.

Dropped out: BYU.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 14: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Pittsburgh (0.047); Mississippi (0.042); Hawaii (0.040); Fresno St. (0.040); Memphis (0.036)

Biggest drops: Utah (-0.047); Auburn (-0.046); Rutgers (-0.045); UNLV (-0.040); Washington (-0.038)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.973	0.612	19	38.3	1	9.1	1	147.8	124
2	--	Notre Dame	0.887	0.606	21	25.7	24	11.3	2	157.6	103
3	--	LSU	0.880	0.669	7	27.1	14	12.2	3	162.5	80
4	+1	Florida	0.874	0.674	5	26.7	18	12.3	4	156.7	109
5	+1	Oregon	0.865	0.548	44	31.8	2	15.1	11	180.5	8
6	+1	Texas A&M	0.857	0.671	6	27.9	12	13.6	6	185.5	4
7	-3	Florida St.	0.846	0.520	57	30.6	4	15.5	16	157.1	105
8	--	Stanford	0.840	0.557	41	26.9	16	13.9	7	161.1	88
9	--	Oklahoma	0.832	0.636	12	26.4	21	13.9	8	176.1	13
10	+1	Boise St.	0.817	0.379	100	27.5	13	15.1	12	157.0	107
11	+2	South Carolina	0.808	0.602	23	28.0	11	15.8	17	157.0	106
12	-2	Wisconsin	0.806	0.553	42	30.1	5	17.1	27	156.0	114
13	-1	Oklahoma St.	0.803	0.633	14	27.1	15	15.4	14	183.1	7
14	+2	Georgia	0.800	0.534	50	28.4	10	16.3	21	161.6	87
15	--	Kansas St.	0.782	0.601	24	31.2	3	18.7	42	154.7	118
16	-2	Michigan	0.781	0.571	34	30.0	6	18.0	35	152.0	123
17	--	Nebraska	0.770	0.616	18	26.1	22	16.1	20	168.0	47
18	--	USC	0.763	0.563	36	29.0	7	18.2	38	162.2	81
19	--	Ohio St.	0.762	0.530	52	28.8	8	18.1	37	162.1	83
20	+3	Michigan St.	0.734	0.603	22	20.1	68	13.4	5	163.1	74
21	-1	Texas	0.733	0.576	33	26.7	19	17.8	33	159.3	96
22	--	BYU	0.726	0.442	73	21.1	58	14.3	10	162.7	79
23	+2	TCU	0.726	0.559	38	23.3	36	15.8	18	163.7	68
24	NA	Cincinnati	0.716	0.507	61	22.3	48	15.5	15	166.3	56
25	NA	Penn State	0.713	0.535	49	20.1	66	14.0	9	169.9	34

Rankings through games of 2012-11-25

New entries: Cincinnati, Penn State.

Dropped out: Clemson, Oregon St..

Well it appears that will finally happen. As far back as week 8 we were predicting an Alabama/Notre Dame championship game. Of course we expected Alabama to be the undefeated one, with Notre Dame as more likely to lose. Granted, Alabama still has to beat Georgia in the SEC title game. TFG doesn't think too much of Georgia, but a lot of that skepticism comes from early-season games against Florida-Atlantic (gave up 20 points), Tennessee (44 points), and Kentucky (24 points). More recently, though, Georgia has clamped down on defense and only allowed a combined 29 points against Florida, Mississippi, Auburn, and Georgia Tech.

On a side note, while it would be interesting to see an Ohio State/Notre Dame championship game -- there are only two undefeated teams left, after all -- it's probably better for the Buckeyes that they're going to have to sit this one out. Currently TFG places them in the neighborhood of the 2006 Boise State team that went undefeated and beat Alabama in the Fiesta Bowl. In other words: they're good, but nowhere near as good as Notre Dame. A Notre Dame/Ohio State championship game would be about on the same level as a Notre Dame/USC game. Urban Meyer definitely got the offense clicking this year to the tune of 28.8 PPH, but their defense still needs work (18.1 PPH).

Previously we've shown that most BCS champions end up in the top 3 on either offense or defense, and in the top ten on the other side of the ball. Right now the only teams that meets those criteria is Alabama, although Oregon is close (2nd-best offense, 11th-best defense). The Irish have an amazing defense -- second-best in FBS, at 11.3 PPH -- but their offense barely eeks into the top 25 at 25.7 PPH; that's on par with (17) Nebraska.

The most the Irish can hope for right now is that Georgia upsets Alabama in the SEC title game. The Irish have an 18% chance against the Crimson Tide, but a 66% chance against Georgia. So for all those Notre Dame fans and Alabama haters: Go Dawgs.


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Week 13: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Nov 25 00:28:05 2012

Auburn	0	Alabama	49	Final
Texas Tech	45	Baylor	52	Final
Air Force	15	Fresno St.	48	Final
Stanford	35	UCLA	17	Final
UAB	24	UCF	49	Final
South Carolina	27	Clemson	17	Final
New Mexico	20	Colorado St.	24	Final
Miami-FL	52	Duke	45	Final
LA-Monroe	23	FIU	17	Final
Florida	37	Florida St.	26	Final
Georgia Tech	10	Georgia	42	Final
UNLV	10	Hawaii	48	Final
Tulane	17	Houston	40	Final
Connecticut	23	Louisville	20	Final
Southern Miss.	24	Memphis	42	Final
Troy	21	Middle Tenn.	24	Final
Michigan St.	26	Minnesota	10	Final
Mississippi St.	24	Mississippi	41	Final
Maryland	38	North Carolina	45	Final
BYU	50	New Mexico St.	14	Final
Boston College	10	North Carolina St.	27	Final
Illinois	14	Northwestern	50	Final
Michigan	21	Ohio St.	26	Final
Oklahoma St.	48	Oklahoma	51	Final
Oregon	48	Oregon St.	24	Final
Wisconsin	21	Penn State	24	Final
Rutgers	6	Pittsburgh	27	Final
Indiana	35	Purdue	56	Final
LA Tech	43	SJSU	52	Final
Notre Dame	22	USC	13	Final
Tulsa	27	SMU	35	Final
South Alabama	30	LA-Lafayette	52	Final
Kentucky	17	Tennessee	37	Final
Missouri	29	Texas A&M	59	Final
Rice	33	UTEP	24	Final
Texas State	31	UTSA	38	Final
Idaho	9	Utah St.	45	Final
Virginia	14	Virginia Tech	17	Final
Vanderbilt	55	Wake Forest	21	Final
North Texas	24	Western Kentucky	25	Final
SDSU	42	Wyoming	28	Final

Week 13: Saturday Predictions

1 Alabama 45  75 Auburn 22

1 Alabama 42  70 Auburn 7

34 Baylor 41  48 Texas Tech 39

37 Baylor 41  50 Texas Tech 34

21 Clemson 36  13 South Carolina 38

15 Clemson 31   7 South Carolina 27

106 Colorado St. 37 115 New Mexico 35

102 Colorado St. 31 109 New Mexico 24

86 Duke 33  50 Miami-FL 39

68 Duke 28  55 Miami-FL 31

93 FIU 32  67 LA-Monroe 36

100 FIU 27  69 LA-Monroe 31

4 Florida St. 33   5 Florida 30

16 Florida St. 21   5 Florida 24

45 Fresno St. 38  68 Air Force 34

45 Fresno St. 38  71 Air Force 24

16 Georgia 44  49 Georgia Tech 37

9 Georgia 38  41 Georgia Tech 21

118 Hawaii 35 108 UNLV 39

117 Hawaii 29 105 UNLV 28

71 Houston 44 119 Tulane 31

81 Houston 42 120 Tulane 21

65 LA-Lafayette 39 117 South Alabama 30

73 LA-Lafayette 38 116 South Alabama 17

46 Louisville 35  73 Connecticut 31

34 Louisville 31  86 Connecticut 17

116 Memphis 32  96 Southern Miss. 37

112 Memphis 31 111 Southern Miss. 28

91 Middle Tenn. 34  81 Troy 35

93 Middle Tenn. 31  83 Troy 28

85 Minnesota 24  23 Michigan St. 34

80 Minnesota 20  25 Michigan St. 31

52 Mississippi 31  30 Mississippi St. 34

48 Mississippi 27  31 Mississippi St. 28

123 New Mexico St. 21  22 BYU 43

124 New Mexico St. 17  24 BYU 45

38 North Carolina 39  92 Maryland 30

46 North Carolina 38  87 Maryland 17

59 North Carolina St. 33  95 Boston College 27

60 North Carolina St. 28  96 Boston College 17

40 Northwestern 37 101 Illinois 28

42 Northwestern 35  97 Illinois 17

19 Ohio St. 36  14 Michigan 38

14 Ohio St. 28  21 Michigan 21

9 Oklahoma 37  12 Oklahoma St. 35

11 Oklahoma 35  10 Oklahoma St. 34

24 Oregon St. 34   6 Oregon 41

23 Oregon St. 27   2 Oregon 34

26 Penn State 30  10 Wisconsin 36

26 Penn State 24  19 Wisconsin 27

37 Pittsburgh 29  28 Rutgers 30

52 Pittsburgh 24  18 Rutgers 25

76 Purdue 37  80 Indiana 36

74 Purdue 34  82 Indiana 27

58 SJSU 38  53 LA Tech 39

62 SJSU 28  33 LA Tech 31

72 SMU 30  41 Tulsa 35

72 SMU 27  47 Tulsa 31

18 USC 32   2 Notre Dame 35

17 USC 24   4 Notre Dame 27

56 Tennessee 41 107 Kentucky 32

58 Tennessee 35  85 Kentucky 21

7 Texas A&M 38  44 Missouri 28

8 Texas A&M 35  35 Missouri 17

33 UCF 45 110 UAB 30

38 UCF 38 115 UAB 17

42 UCLA 30   8 Stanford 38

27 UCLA 24  13 Stanford 28

39 Utah St. 44 120 Idaho 26

22 Utah St. 52 121 Idaho 14

98 UTEP 34  88 Rice 36

101 UTEP 29  94 Rice 28

112 UTSA 36 104 Texas State 40

110 UTSA 31 106 Texas State 28

35 Virginia Tech 36  90 Virginia 28

40 Virginia Tech 31  89 Virginia 17

102 Wake Forest 25  47 Vanderbilt 34

91 Wake Forest 14  32 Vanderbilt 35

82 Western Kentucky 34  97 North Texas 32

78 Western Kentucky 31 103 North Texas 21

94 Wyoming 30  31 SDSU 40

92 Wyoming 24  43 SDSU 31

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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