Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Week 13: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-11-18

In last week's post we discussed how it looked like we were on a collision course with three undefeated teams (and Alabama) come mid-December. We explained how the numbers showed that Oregon and Kansas State were the least likely teams to end up in the title game (20.6% and 38.8%, respectively), and one week later it appears those odds are pretty close to zero (more on Oregon later).

Notre Dame now has the simplest path to the national title game: beat USC, and they're in the title game. They've got a 71.1% chance of pulling that off.

Alabama has the second-clearest path to the title game. Beat Auburn and win the SEC title game, and they're in. Auburn should be pretty easy, and while Georgia has come on pretty strong, they still have a few weak spots on their resume -- a loss to South Carolina, plus narrow wins against Kentucky and Tennessee -- meaning they haven't demonstrated the level of dominance against middle-tier teams as Alabama has done. This adds up to an 87.1% chance of Alabama making the title game.

Georgia is the next team up, should Alabama slip. They'll need an Alabama loss to either Auburn or to them in the SEC title game. They'll also need to beat Georgia Tech to stay at one loss. This adds up to a 9.5% chance of seeing the Bulldogs in the title game.

Florida is up next in the BCS rankings, but I'm not sure they have a path to the title game. Maybe if Alabama loses to Auburn but wins the SEC title against Georgia? The Bulldogs might also need to slip up against Georgia Tech for this to happen, but in general I'd bin Florida's odds in with the "BCS confusion" category.

Finally we come to Oregon. If the Ducks beat Oregon State and win the Pac-12 championship, they could have an argument to be let in if the SEC teams completely slip up. Notre Dame would have to get completely blown out by USC for this to even be a possibility; Oregon could argue that both the Irish and they took Stanford to OT, but they did a better job of handling USC. It's a long shot, and I'd argue that their odds are a bit clearer if Alabama, Georgia, and Florida all slip up at some point. That'll require
  • Alabama losing to Georgia in the title game; and
  • Georgia losing to Georgia Tech; and
  • Florida losing to Florida State.
In short, Oregon's title hopes depend on Georgia beating Alabama, and the ACC beating the SEC. Good luck.

Ohio State? Still charging towards a postseason-meaningless undefeated season. Congratulations.

As it stands right now, here are the odds of a few scenarios, sorted by likelihood:

ScenarioOdds
Alabama in title game87.1%
Notre Dame in title game     71.1%
BCS confusion30.9%
Georgia in title game9.5%
Oregon in title game1.4%

I'll update these odds at the season winds down.

Full schedules and odds after the jump.


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.888 2 0.596 26 25.8 23 11.3 2 159.1 96

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  59 Navy 10 vs  16 Notre Dame 50 150 74.7%
2012/09/08  71 Purdue 17 at  13 Notre Dame 20 172 90.6%
2012/09/15  16 Notre Dame 20 at   9 Michigan St. 3 165 30.7%
2012/09/22  24 Michigan 6 at  11 Notre Dame 13 133 74.3%
2012/10/06  11 Notre Dame 41 vs  44 Miami-FL 3 154 78.0%
2012/10/13  10 Stanford 13 at   4 Notre Dame 20 165 65.5%
2012/10/20  31 BYU 14 at   4 Notre Dame 17 145 84.8%
2012/10/27   6 Notre Dame 30 at   3 Oklahoma 13 166 32.0%
2012/11/03  36 Pittsburgh 26 at   3 Notre Dame 29 199 83.9%
2012/11/10   4 Notre Dame 21 at  97 Boston College 6 150 93.5%
2012/11/17  94 Wake Forest 0 at   5 Notre Dame 38 152 94.0%
2012/11/24   2 Notre Dame 35 at  18 USC 32 161 71.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.4
Most difficult game left: November 24, at USC Trojans, 71.1%



Long Shots

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.754 19 0.512 59 28.7 9 18.3 38 163.1 75

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  80 Miami-OH 10 at  22 Ohio St. 56 193 89.0%
2012/09/08  52 UCF 16 at  15 Ohio St. 31 161 83.7%
2012/09/15  47 California 28 at  13 Ohio St. 35 176 84.0%
2012/09/22 114 UAB 15 at  16 Ohio St. 29 165 97.4%
2012/09/29  19 Ohio St. 17 at  16 Michigan St. 16 156 35.5%
2012/10/06  18 Nebraska 38 at  20 Ohio St. 63 166 58.2%
2012/10/13  14 Ohio St. 52 at  86 Indiana 49 195 83.5%
2012/10/20  68 Purdue 22 at  19 Ohio St. 29 164 84.5%
2012/10/27  19 Ohio St. 35 at  23 Penn State 23 174 41.5%
2012/11/03  98 Illinois 22 at  17 Ohio St. 52 175 90.4%
2012/11/17  19 Ohio St. 21 at  10 Wisconsin 14 169 38.7%
2012/11/24  14 Michigan 38 at  19 Ohio St. 36 157 45.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-2.2
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Michigan Wolverines, 45.4%



One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2012-11-18


Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.968 1 0.631 14 38.0 1 9.8 1 148.1 124

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  14 Michigan 14 vs   1 Alabama 41 148 91.3%
2012/09/08  86 Western Kentucky 0 at   1 Alabama 35 130 99.2%
2012/09/15   1 Alabama 52 at  17 Arkansas 0 149 89.4%
2012/09/22 118 FL-Atlantic 7 at   1 Alabama 40 142 99.9%
2012/09/29  70 Mississippi 14 at   1 Alabama 33 154 99.1%
2012/10/13   1 Alabama 42 at  33 Missouri 10 151 94.8%
2012/10/20   1 Alabama 44 at  48 Tennessee 13 149 95.9%
2012/10/27  21 Mississippi St. 7 at   1 Alabama 38 148 96.4%
2012/11/03   1 Alabama 21 at   2 LSU 17 161 82.5%
2012/11/10   8 Texas A&M 29 at   1 Alabama 24 166 89.9%
2012/11/24  75 Auburn 22 at   1 Alabama 45 151 97.5%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Auburn Tigers, 97.5%
Notes:



Georgia Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.783 16 0.527 54 28.6 10 17.1 27 161.7 84

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01 112 Buffalo 23 at  20 Georgia 45 168 96.7%
2012/09/08  25 Georgia 41 at  22 Missouri 20 187 35.2%
2012/09/15 118 FL-Atlantic 20 at  20 Georgia 56 164 98.6%
2012/09/22  61 Vanderbilt 3 at  21 Georgia 48 167 80.1%
2012/09/29  54 Tennessee 44 at  18 Georgia 51 182 82.5%
2012/10/06  19 Georgia 7 at   8 South Carolina 35 153 30.6%
2012/10/20  23 Georgia 29 at  96 Kentucky 24 162 78.8%
2012/10/27  28 Georgia 17 vs   4 Florida 9 157 23.2%
2012/11/03  53 Mississippi 10 at  23 Georgia 37 155 70.6%
2012/11/10  19 Georgia 38 at  62 Auburn 0 139 71.7%
2012/11/24  49 Georgia Tech 37 at  16 Georgia 44 159 73.2%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.4
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 73.2%
Notes:



Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.859 6 0.533 52 31.4 3 15.3 15 180.4 8

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  64 Arkansas St. 34 at   6 Oregon 57 208 91.2%
2012/09/08  85 Fresno St. 25 at   6 Oregon 42 199 95.1%
2012/09/22  38 Arizona 0 at   8 Oregon 49 200 84.0%
2012/09/29  99 Washington St. 26 vs   4 Oregon 51 194 95.1%
2012/10/06  65 Washington 21 at   4 Oregon 52 182 90.1%
2012/10/18   7 Oregon 43 at  26 Arizona St. 21 194 62.0%
2012/10/27 116 Colorado 14 at   5 Oregon 70 165 98.4%
2012/11/03   7 Oregon 62 at  16 USC 51 191 61.6%
2012/11/10   7 Oregon 59 at  63 California 17 177 84.0%
2012/11/17   9 Stanford 17 at   3 Oregon 14 187 57.6%
2012/11/24   6 Oregon 41 at  24 Oregon St. 34 171 69.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.4
Most difficult game left: November 24, at Oregon State Beavers, 69.7%
Notes:



Kansas State Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.785 15 0.604 24 31.6 2 18.8 43 154.8 116

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/08  36 Miami-FL 13 at  30 Kansas St. 52 150 65.6%
2012/09/15  86 North Texas 21 at  25 Kansas St. 35 135 90.1%
2012/09/22  23 Kansas St. 24 at   5 Oklahoma 19 156 19.0%
2012/10/06 101 Kansas 16 at  22 Kansas St. 56 151 92.9%
2012/10/13  20 Kansas St. 27 at  47 Iowa St. 21 164 60.4%
2012/10/20  18 Kansas St. 55 at  30 West Virginia 14 147 50.4%
2012/10/27  22 Texas Tech 24 at  14 Kansas St. 55 166 70.4%
2012/11/03  12 Oklahoma St. 30 at  11 Kansas St. 44 169 54.4%
2012/11/10  11 Kansas St. 23 at  21 TCU 10 146 57.1%
2012/11/17  11 Kansas St. 24 at  43 Baylor 52 190 75.4%
2012/12/01  20 Texas 36 at  15 Kansas St. 39 157 55.3%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.8
Most difficult game left: December 1, vs Texas Longhorns, 55.3%
Notes:



Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.868 4 0.496 64 30.7 5 14.4 11 156.6 110

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/15  76 Wake Forest 0 at  11 Florida St. 52 162 91.6%
2012/09/22  32 Clemson 37 at   4 Florida St. 49 185 86.5%
2012/09/29   6 Florida St. 30 at  58 South Florida 17 161 80.0%
2012/10/06   3 Florida St. 16 at  51 North Carolina St. 17 175 78.4%
2012/10/13  87 Boston College 7 at   8 Florida St. 51 165 94.0%
2012/10/20   5 Florida St. 33 at  67 Miami-FL 20 168 82.2%
2012/10/27  76 Duke 7 at   7 Florida St. 48 171 93.7%
2012/11/08   3 Florida St. 28 at  38 Virginia Tech 22 166 78.3%
2012/11/17   4 Florida St. 41 at  89 Maryland 14 145 93.5%
2012/11/24   5 Florida 30 at   4 Florida St. 33 156 52.0%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.9
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Florida Gators, 52.0%
Notes:



Florida Gators
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.859 5 0.649 9 25.0 25 12.2 3 156.2 113

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  98 Bowling Green 14 at  18 Florida 27 173 93.1%
2012/09/08  21 Florida 20 at  19 Texas A&M 17 159 34.8%
2012/09/15  19 Florida 37 at  36 Tennessee 20 168 55.0%
2012/09/22  74 Kentucky 0 at  15 Florida 38 157 89.6%
2012/10/06   2 LSU 6 at   9 Florida 14 147 36.4%
2012/10/13   6 Florida 31 at  71 Vanderbilt 17 162 83.8%
2012/10/20   6 South Carolina 11 at   8 Florida 44 162 55.9%
2012/10/27  28 Georgia 17 vs   4 Florida 9 157 76.8%
2012/11/03  34 Missouri 7 at   6 Florida 14 169 80.8%
2012/11/10  71 LA-Lafayette 20 at   5 Florida 27 146 91.0%
2012/11/24   5 Florida 30 at   4 Florida St. 33 156 48.0%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.1
Most difficult game left: November 24, at Florida State Seminoles, 48.0%
Notes:



Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.732 21 0.498 62 28.0 13 18.8 41 174.9 16

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  38 Clemson 26 vs  31 Auburn 19 177 48.3%
2012/09/08 102 Ball St. 27 at  33 Clemson 52 183 90.3%
2012/09/22  32 Clemson 37 at   4 Florida St. 49 185 13.5%
2012/09/29  27 Clemson 45 at  83 Boston College 31 185 71.3%
2012/10/06  54 Georgia Tech 31 at  33 Clemson 47 174 71.5%
2012/10/20  25 Virginia Tech 17 at  32 Clemson 38 170 55.8%
2012/10/25  29 Clemson 42 at  87 Wake Forest 13 191 71.5%
2012/11/03  24 Clemson 56 at  84 Duke 20 188 78.1%
2012/11/10  88 Maryland 10 at  23 Clemson 45 154 85.4%
2012/11/17  56 North Carolina St. 48 at  21 Clemson 62 223 72.5%
2012/11/24  13 South Carolina 38 at  21 Clemson 36 166 40.8%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.5
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs South Carolina Gamecocks, 40.8%
Notes:



Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.686 28 0.453 72 20.3 63 14.8 12 155.4 115

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/01  49 Rutgers 24 at 116 Tulane 12 149 84.8%
2012/09/13  49 Rutgers 23 at  44 South Florida 13 174 34.3%
2012/09/22  37 Rutgers 35 at  26 Arkansas 26 166 30.8%
2012/10/06  53 Connecticut 3 at  45 Rutgers 19 149 62.5%
2012/10/13  75 Syracuse 15 at  34 Rutgers 23 160 78.4%
2012/10/20  33 Rutgers 35 at  43 Temple 10 142 45.1%
2012/10/27  83 Kent St. 35 at  24 Rutgers 23 164 86.7%
2012/11/10  98 Army 7 at  31 Rutgers 28 159 84.5%
2012/11/17  29 Rutgers 10 at  25 Cincinnati 3 146 44.8%
2012/11/24  28 Rutgers 30 at  37 Pittsburgh 29 159 56.7%
2012/11/29  46 Louisville 32 at  28 Rutgers 33 154 60.1%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.9
Most difficult game left: November 24, at Pittsburgh Panthers, 56.7%
Notes:



Louisville Cardinals
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2012 0.592 46 0.482 66 27.2 16 23.5 82 153.4 122

Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2012/09/02  90 Kentucky 14 at  53 Louisville 32 162 81.5%
2012/09/15  60 North Carolina 34 at  34 Louisville 39 154 72.4%
2012/09/22  40 Louisville 28 at  92 FIU 21 149 70.3%
2012/09/29  40 Louisville 21 at  77 Southern Miss. 17 142 57.9%
2012/10/13  38 Louisville 45 at  41 Pittsburgh 35 155 42.1%
2012/10/20  59 South Florida 25 at  39 Louisville 27 164 69.9%
2012/10/26  27 Cincinnati 31 at  40 Louisville 34 178 51.1%
2012/11/03  70 Temple 17 at  40 Louisville 45 152 69.3%
2012/11/10  36 Louisville 26 at  58 Syracuse 45 169 57.5%
2012/11/24  73 Connecticut 31 at  46 Louisville 35 155 65.3%
2012/11/29  46 Louisville 32 at  28 Rutgers 33 154 39.9%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-3.8
Most difficult game left: November 29, at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 39.9%
Notes:


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