Today is Part II of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
- Belk Bowl
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Duke Blue Devils - Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Bowling Green Falcons vs San Jose State Spartans - Heart of Dallas Bowl
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs Purdue Boilermakers - AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs Ohio Bobcats - Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
Ball State Cardinals vs UCF Knights
Full previews after the jump ....
32. Belk Bowl
Thursday, December 27 at 6:30 PM
Cincinnati Bearcats (7 - 3; 5 - 2 Big East)
vs
Duke Blue Devils (5 - 6; 3 - 5 ACC)
vs
Duke Blue Devils (5 - 6; 3 - 5 ACC)
GUGS Score: 29.8
Justin
Cincinnati Bearcats | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.723 | 22 | 0.504 | 62 | 23.0 | 42 | 15.7 | 16 | 166.8 | 52 |
Duke Blue Devils | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.338 | 87 | 0.526 | 56 | 19.4 | 77 | 25.4 | 101 | 170.0 | 34 |
REPENT! THE END OF TIMES ARE NEAR! THE DUKE BLUE DEVILS ARE BOWL-ELIGIBLE! Actually it's not quite that crazy, as this will be the biggest mismatch of the bowl season. The (22) Cincinnati Bearcats have been flirting with the top 25 all season, while the (87) Duke Blue Devils have been hovering in the 80s and 90s all season. Their defense has been bad, and their offense has barely been good enough to drag them to a 5-6 FBS record. This won't be pretty, and it won't be close. Think Florida-Cincinnati in the 2010 Sugar Bowl, but with Cincinnati playing the role of Tim Tebow's Gators taking the Bearcats behind the woodshed. Cincinnati 40, Duke 29 (83.6%); 168 plays.
Eddie
Cincinnati Bearcats | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.776 | 32 | 0.507 | 64 | 17.5 | 52 | 11.1 | 15 | 169.1 | 32 |
Duke Blue Devils | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.454 | 67 | 0.534 | 45 | 17.5 | 50 | 19.2 | 88 | 167.2 | 61 |
Due to the holiday rush, I have to confess that I'm phoning in any game that doesn't have a sub-70% confidence ranking. This one is going to get real ugly real fast, unless Cincinnati is reeling from Butch Jones jumping ship to Purdue. Duke's defense simply won't hold up to the Bearcat offense. Cincinnati 41, Duke 17 (78.1%); 168 plays.
Cincinnati Bearcats Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/09/06 | 41 | / 61 | Pittsburgh | 10 | at | 32 | / 24 | Cincinnati | 34 | 167 | 67.2% | / 51.4% |
2012/09/29 | 21 | / 31 | Virginia Tech | 24 | vs | 26 | / 22 | Cincinnati | 27 | 170 | 46.3% | / 55.8% |
2012/10/06 | 105 | / 99 | Miami-OH | 14 | at | 25 | / 24 | Cincinnati | 52 | 172 | 93.3% | / 91.4% |
2012/10/20 | 22 | / 27 | Cincinnati | 23 | at | 63 | / 54 | Toledo | 29 | 166 | 63.7% | / 70.5% |
2012/10/26 | 27 | / 29 | Cincinnati | 31 | at | 40 | / 36 | Louisville | 34 | 178 | 48.9% | / 31.4% |
2012/11/03 | 58 | / 67 | Syracuse | 24 | at | 25 | / 28 | Cincinnati | 35 | 203 | 71.2% | / 73.7% |
2012/11/10 | 26 | / 29 | Cincinnati | 34 | at | 74 | / 82 | Temple | 10 | 153 | 72.2% | / 82.8% |
2012/11/17 | 29 | / 18 | Rutgers | 10 | at | 25 | / 29 | Cincinnati | 3 | 146 | 55.2% | / 49.3% |
2012/11/23 | 66 | / 79 | South Florida | 10 | at | 27 | / 32 | Cincinnati | 27 | 169 | 71.6% | / 74.9% |
2012/12/01 | 24 | / 32 | Cincinnati | 34 | at | 69 | / 76 | Connecticut | 17 | 168 | 75.2% | / 81.9% |
2012/12/27 | 87 | / 67 | Duke | -- | vs | 22 | / 32 | Cincinnati | -- | -- | 83.6% | / 78.1% |
Duke Blue Devils Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/09/01 | 72 | / 81 | FIU | 26 | at | 95 | / 73 | Duke | 46 | 186 | 51.1% | / 60.8% |
2012/09/08 | 78 | / 69 | Duke | 13 | at | 8 | / 4 | Stanford | 50 | 174 | 6.0% | / 6.5% |
2012/09/22 | 117 | / 118 | Memphis | 14 | at | 90 | / 71 | Duke | 38 | 160 | 87.3% | / 87.9% |
2012/09/29 | 84 | / 74 | Duke | 34 | at | 88 | / 75 | Wake Forest | 27 | 175 | 43.0% | / 45.6% |
2012/10/06 | 84 | / 92 | Virginia | 17 | at | 86 | / 69 | Duke | 42 | 183 | 57.4% | / 58.4% |
2012/10/13 | 81 | / 67 | Duke | 20 | at | 27 | / 33 | Virginia Tech | 41 | 162 | 15.7% | / 23.3% |
2012/10/20 | 28 | / 35 | North Carolina | 30 | at | 83 | / 64 | Duke | 33 | 186 | 28.9% | / 27.8% |
2012/10/27 | 76 | / 65 | Duke | 7 | at | 7 | / 13 | Florida St. | 48 | 171 | 6.3% | / 10.2% |
2012/11/03 | 24 | / 18 | Clemson | 56 | at | 84 | / 68 | Duke | 20 | 188 | 21.9% | / 30.9% |
2012/11/17 | 88 | / 68 | Duke | 24 | at | 51 | / 41 | Georgia Tech | 42 | 165 | 29.5% | / 43.7% |
2012/11/24 | 50 | / 45 | Miami-FL | 52 | at | 87 | / 68 | Duke | 45 | 194 | 28.7% | / 43.5% |
2012/12/27 | 87 | / 67 | Duke | -- | vs | 22 | / 32 | Cincinnati | -- | -- | 16.4% | / 21.9% |
31. Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Thursday, December 27 at 3:00 PM
Bowling Green Falcons (7 - 4; 6 - 2 Mid-American)
vs
San Jose State Spartans (9 - 2; 5 - 1 Western Athletic)
vs
San Jose State Spartans (9 - 2; 5 - 1 Western Athletic)
GUGS Score: 33.4
Eddie
Bowling Green Falcons | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.388 | 75 | 0.450 | 104 | 12.1 | 104 | 14.3 | 44 | 168.2 | 47 |
San Jose State Spartans | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.544 | 59 | 0.502 | 65 | 17.8 | 45 | 15.6 | 53 | 167.0 | 67 |
This game features a surprisingly good San Jose State team playing without the head coach that got them to this game. The Spartans managed nine FBS wins this year, largely due to playing a WAC schedule, but that doesn't mean they're not respectable. Their offense isn't great at 26.5 +/- 17.4 PPH, and their 10.0 +/- 11.1 PPH defense consistently surrenders points. However, Bowling Green simply isn't that good offensively at 17.7 +/- 11.1 PPH. It will probably be closer than they'd like, but RBA things San Jose State will pull this one out. SJSU 28, Bowling Green 27 (64.4%); 167 plays.
Justin
Bowling Green Falcons | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.419 | 73 | 0.305 | 121 | 16.0 | 109 | 18.3 | 39 | 158.0 | 100 |
San Jose State Spartans | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.551 | 52 | 0.386 | 97 | 23.1 | 38 | 21.3 | 60 | 162.7 | 79 |
This has the look and feel of one of those 7-vs-10 seed games in the NCAA tournament; we've got two teams from non-AQ conferences with decent records, but underwhelming stats. Both have played weak schedules and done okay against them. (52) San Jose State has the definition of a mediocre defense, but has managed to put together a somewhat respectable offense. (73) Bowling Green has played the fourth-weakest schedule in FBS, has an utterly anemic offense, but a respectable defense. The Spartans are the moderate favorites here, and if Bowling Green wants any shot at winning the game they'll need to find some sort of offense. TFG isn't too positive on that, though. SJSU 33, Bowling Green 29 (63.0%); 160 plays.
Bowling Green Falcons Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/09/01 | 98 | / 106 | Bowling Green | 14 | at | 18 | / 16 | Florida | 27 | 173 | 6.9% | / 3.8% |
2012/09/08 | 110 | / 108 | Idaho | 13 | at | 96 | / 95 | Bowling Green | 21 | 149 | 76.3% | / 60.0% |
2012/09/15 | 95 | / 95 | Bowling Green | 15 | at | 61 | / 64 | Toledo | 27 | 157 | 17.5% | / 27.8% |
2012/09/22 | 96 | / 103 | Bowling Green | 0 | at | 30 | / 37 | Virginia Tech | 37 | 171 | 12.0% | / 14.2% |
2012/10/06 | 107 | / 102 | Bowling Green | 24 | at | 120 | / 121 | Akron | 10 | 185 | 65.1% | / 78.5% |
2012/10/13 | 106 | / 105 | Miami-OH | 12 | at | 103 | / 95 | Bowling Green | 37 | 155 | 63.4% | / 52.1% |
2012/10/20 | 100 | / 91 | Bowling Green | 24 | at | 123 | / 124 | Massachusetts | 0 | 167 | 83.7% | / 80.7% |
2012/10/27 | 109 | / 120 | Eastern Michigan | 3 | at | 91 | / 84 | Bowling Green | 24 | 140 | 77.2% | / 64.1% |
2012/11/07 | 81 | / 80 | Bowling Green | 26 | at | 82 | / 48 | Ohio | 14 | 156 | 45.9% | / 23.2% |
2012/11/17 | 75 | / 66 | Kent St. | 31 | at | 78 | / 76 | Bowling Green | 24 | 160 | 47.5% | / 63.7% |
2012/11/23 | 109 | / 109 | Buffalo | 7 | vs | 78 | / 75 | Bowling Green | 21 | 158 | 72.4% | / 72.5% |
2012/12/27 | 52 | / 59 | SJSU | -- | vs | 73 | / 75 | Bowling Green | -- | -- | 37.0% | / 35.6% |
San Jose State Spartans Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/08/31 | 102 | / 100 | SJSU | 17 | at | 5 | / 5 | Stanford | 20 | 153 | 5.1% | / 3.8% |
2012/09/15 | 107 | / 104 | Colorado St. | 20 | at | 89 | / 81 | SJSU | 40 | 168 | 77.8% | / 61.9% |
2012/09/22 | 80 | / 76 | SJSU | 38 | at | 50 | / 57 | SDSU | 34 | 167 | 21.3% | / 38.8% |
2012/09/29 | 78 | / 70 | SJSU | 12 | at | 89 | / 91 | Navy | 0 | 144 | 47.2% | / 42.3% |
2012/10/13 | 67 | / 45 | Utah St. | 49 | at | 78 | / 70 | SJSU | 27 | 179 | 53.5% | / 37.7% |
2012/10/20 | 84 | / 71 | SJSU | 52 | at | NA | / 117 | UTSA | 24 | 157 | 56.9% | / 99.8% |
2012/10/27 | 97 | / 104 | Texas State | 20 | at | 80 | / 72 | SJSU | 31 | 152 | 71.5% | / 76.0% |
2012/11/03 | 77 | / 72 | SJSU | 42 | at | 119 | / 119 | Idaho | 13 | 170 | 79.3% | / 89.1% |
2012/11/10 | 72 | / 67 | SJSU | 47 | at | 123 | / 124 | New Mexico St. | 7 | 155 | 87.2% | / 83.2% |
2012/11/17 | 23 | / 24 | BYU | 14 | at | 65 | / 61 | SJSU | 20 | 173 | 26.2% | / 17.7% |
2012/11/24 | 53 | / 39 | LA Tech | 43 | at | 58 | / 57 | SJSU | 52 | 190 | 48.5% | / 33.5% |
2012/12/27 | 52 | / 59 | SJSU | -- | vs | 73 | / 75 | Bowling Green | -- | -- | 63.0% | / 64.4% |
30. Heart of Dallas Bowl
Tuesday, January 1 at 12:00 PM
Oklahoma State Cowboys (6 - 5; 5 - 4 Big XII)
vs
Purdue Boilermakers (5 - 6; 3 - 5 Big Ten)
vs
Purdue Boilermakers (5 - 6; 3 - 5 Big Ten)
GUGS Score: 34.6
Justin
Oklahoma State Cowboys | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.789 | 14 | 0.628 | 15 | 26.2 | 21 | 15.5 | 15 | 184.0 | 6 |
Purdue Boilermakers | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.431 | 71 | 0.544 | 48 | 19.4 | 76 | 21.6 | 64 | 173.2 | 20 |
If the last game was a 7-vs-10 seed matchup, this is the definition of an 4-vs-13: two middle-of-the-road teams from major conferences who just couldn't get it done. The (14) Oklahoma State Cowboys just had bad luck this year, losing to (13) Texas, (11) Kansas State, (9) Oklahoma, and (36) Baylor by an average of a touchdown. Both their offense and defense rank in the top 25, they've just had trouble sealing the deal. (71) Purdue, on the other hand, got to play a weaker schedule and managed to eek out a 5-6 record against FBS opponents. TFG predicts this will be the second-largest mismatch of the bowl season. Oklahoma St. 42, Purdue 31 (83.1%); 178 plays.
Eddie
Oklahoma State Cowboys | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.932 | 12 | 0.552 | 11 | 22.8 | 11 | 14.0 | 39 | 174.4 | 7 |
Purdue Boilermakers | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.415 | 72 | 0.536 | 37 | 15.9 | 68 | 17.5 | 71 | 173.1 | 11 |
Purdue is going to get crushed by Oklahoma State. The Cowboys score with the best of them at 23.6 +/- 1.6 PPH, and the Boilermakers play defense in name only at 12.5 +/- 10.0 PPH. As bad as this one will be, it's only RBA's third most confident pick. Oklahoma St. 41, Purdue 17 (82.7%); 173 plays.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/09/08 | 9 | / 8 | Oklahoma St. | 38 | at | 60 | / 45 | Arizona | 59 | 217 | 73.1% | / 81.4% |
2012/09/15 | 81 | / 85 | LA-Lafayette | 24 | at | 15 | / 11 | Oklahoma St. | 65 | 193 | 91.6% | / 87.9% |
2012/09/29 | 13 | / 23 | Texas | 41 | at | 17 | / 12 | Oklahoma St. | 36 | 174 | 56.5% | / 58.2% |
2012/10/13 | 13 | / 8 | Oklahoma St. | 20 | at | 105 | / 99 | Kansas | 14 | 177 | 90.8% | / 90.0% |
2012/10/20 | 45 | / 74 | Iowa St. | 10 | at | 16 | / 16 | Oklahoma St. | 31 | 188 | 78.4% | / 75.5% |
2012/10/27 | 17 | / 31 | TCU | 14 | at | 16 | / 7 | Oklahoma St. | 36 | 178 | 61.8% | / 54.8% |
2012/11/03 | 12 | / 11 | Oklahoma St. | 30 | at | 11 | / 4 | Kansas St. | 44 | 169 | 45.6% | / 39.6% |
2012/11/10 | 41 | / 54 | West Virginia | 34 | at | 14 | / 16 | Oklahoma St. | 55 | 192 | 72.8% | / 69.8% |
2012/11/17 | 37 | / 50 | Texas Tech | 21 | at | 14 | / 10 | Oklahoma St. | 59 | 171 | 70.8% | / 60.3% |
2012/11/24 | 12 | / 10 | Oklahoma St. | 48 | at | 9 | / 11 | Oklahoma | 51 | 213 | 45.5% | / 33.1% |
2012/12/01 | 13 | / 12 | Oklahoma St. | 34 | at | 36 | / 34 | Baylor | 41 | 213 | 70.2% | / 68.0% |
2013/01/01 | 71 | / 72 | Purdue | -- | vs | 14 | / 12 | Oklahoma St. | -- | -- | 83.1% | / 82.7% |
Purdue Boilermakers Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/09/08 | 71 | / 73 | Purdue | 17 | at | 13 | / 17 | Notre Dame | 20 | 172 | 9.4% | / 20.6% |
2012/09/15 | 114 | / 111 | Eastern Michigan | 16 | at | 69 | / 62 | Purdue | 54 | 167 | 89.9% | / 85.3% |
2012/09/29 | 94 | / 87 | Marshall | 41 | at | 56 | / 46 | Purdue | 51 | 213 | 80.4% | / 64.5% |
2012/10/06 | 21 | / 21 | Michigan | 44 | at | 59 | / 59 | Purdue | 13 | 155 | 33.4% | / 31.2% |
2012/10/13 | 15 | / 14 | Wisconsin | 38 | at | 66 | / 63 | Purdue | 14 | 164 | 26.3% | / 28.8% |
2012/10/20 | 68 | / 63 | Purdue | 22 | at | 19 | / 17 | Ohio St. | 29 | 164 | 15.5% | / 21.9% |
2012/10/27 | 66 | / 70 | Purdue | 28 | at | 95 | / 90 | Minnesota | 44 | 172 | 58.3% | / 67.7% |
2012/11/03 | 26 | / 27 | Penn State | 34 | at | 75 | / 75 | Purdue | 9 | 192 | 28.7% | / 24.1% |
2012/11/10 | 79 | / 74 | Purdue | 27 | at | 54 | / 64 | Iowa | 24 | 176 | 31.9% | / 42.8% |
2012/11/17 | 76 | / 74 | Purdue | 20 | at | 103 | / 97 | Illinois | 17 | 171 | 67.8% | / 65.4% |
2012/11/24 | 80 | / 84 | Indiana | 35 | at | 76 | / 72 | Purdue | 56 | 191 | 53.1% | / 56.3% |
2013/01/01 | 71 | / 72 | Purdue | -- | vs | 14 | / 12 | Oklahoma St. | -- | -- | 16.9% | / 17.3% |
29. AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Friday, December 28 at 2:00 PM
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (8 - 4; 6 - 2 Sun Belt)
vs
Ohio Bobcats (7 - 4; 4 - 4 Mid-American)
vs
Ohio Bobcats (7 - 4; 4 - 4 Mid-American)
GUGS Score: 34.7
Eddie
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.454 | 68 | 0.441 | 112 | 17.1 | 56 | 18.2 | 78 | 167.9 | 51 |
Ohio Bobcats | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.342 | 79 | 0.429 | 120 | 12.1 | 102 | 16.2 | 59 | 163.5 | 103 |
The Warhawks exceeded expectations this year, knocking off Arkansas and taking Auburn to overtime, but they did it primarily because neither team played a lick of defense in 2012. Offensively, Louisiana-Monroe is average at best, sporting a 24.4 +/- 14.7 PPH efficiency. However, the Bobcats are flat out awful at 21.8 +/- 19.3 PPH. Expect this game to be ugly, but their defenses will miss enough tackles to keep it interesting. LA-Monroe 31, Ohio 24 (52.8%); 165 plays.
Justin
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.468 | 68 | 0.371 | 107 | 19.7 | 73 | 20.8 | 57 | 173.2 | 21 |
Ohio Bobcats | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.335 | 88 | 0.279 | 124 | 18.9 | 80 | 24.8 | 91 | 169.0 | 39 |
TFG doesn't think that this game will be that competitive, but thanks to the other computer here (*cough*Eddie*cough*) this bowl game ended up being ranked higher than it should. The (68) Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks gained some recognition early in the season for beating Arkansas in their season opener -- starting the Razorbacks' tailspin -- and nearly beating (43) Auburn the next week. The (88) Ohio Bobcats are similar in they opened their season by beating scandal-laden Penn State, but weren't able to follow that up with anything particularly impressive. Both teams are solidly middle-of-the-pack, but TFG gives an edge to the Warhawks. LA-Monroe 38, Ohio 33 (63.5%); 171 plays.
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/09/08 | 10 | / 9 | Arkansas | 31 | at | 88 | / 91 | LA-Monroe | 34 | 202 | 15.7% | / 5.9% |
2012/09/15 | 78 | / 75 | LA-Monroe | 28 | at | 43 | / 55 | Auburn | 31 | 178 | 20.8% | / 16.7% |
2012/09/21 | 28 | / 27 | Baylor | 47 | at | 76 | / 73 | LA-Monroe | 42 | 199 | 30.0% | / 31.8% |
2012/09/29 | 74 | / 63 | LA-Monroe | 63 | at | 119 | / 122 | Tulane | 10 | 164 | 86.2% | / 86.7% |
2012/10/06 | 66 | / 54 | LA-Monroe | 31 | at | 96 | / 75 | Middle Tenn. | 17 | 169 | 61.4% | / 85.3% |
2012/10/13 | 116 | / 120 | FL-Atlantic | 14 | at | 63 | / 49 | LA-Monroe | 35 | 163 | 91.1% | / 92.3% |
2012/10/20 | 60 | / 58 | LA-Monroe | 43 | at | 72 | / 68 | Western Kentucky | 42 | 167 | 46.8% | / 61.0% |
2012/10/27 | 117 | / 115 | South Alabama | 24 | at | 63 | / 54 | LA-Monroe | 38 | 175 | 91.4% | / 90.2% |
2012/11/03 | 78 | / 89 | LA-Lafayette | 40 | at | 62 | / 62 | LA-Monroe | 24 | 165 | 63.2% | / 70.9% |
2012/11/08 | 65 | / 66 | LA-Monroe | 23 | at | 66 | / 72 | Arkansas St. | 45 | 170 | 46.2% | / 63.9% |
2012/11/17 | 92 | / 103 | North Texas | 16 | at | 72 | / 69 | LA-Monroe | 42 | 173 | 63.5% | / 75.4% |
2012/11/24 | 67 | / 66 | LA-Monroe | 23 | at | 93 | / 97 | FIU | 17 | 172 | 65.5% | / 66.0% |
2012/12/28 | 88 | / 79 | Ohio | -- | vs | 68 | / 68 | LA-Monroe | -- | -- | 63.5% | / 52.8% |
Ohio Bobcats Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/09/01 | 68 | / 58 | Ohio | 24 | at | 32 | / 51 | Penn State | 14 | 179 | 20.7% | / 34.2% |
2012/09/08 | 114 | / 107 | New Mexico St. | 24 | at | 62 | / 41 | Ohio | 51 | 170 | 91.8% | / 84.4% |
2012/09/15 | 64 | / 42 | Ohio | 27 | at | 94 | / 89 | Marshall | 24 | 200 | 59.0% | / 76.7% |
2012/09/29 | 64 | / 45 | Ohio | 37 | at | 121 | / 123 | Massachusetts | 34 | 192 | 97.2% | / 99.4% |
2012/10/06 | 111 | / 113 | Buffalo | 31 | at | 74 | / 48 | Ohio | 38 | 185 | 83.2% | / 87.0% |
2012/10/13 | 121 | / 123 | Akron | 28 | at | 77 | / 47 | Ohio | 34 | 193 | 91.5% | / 90.6% |
2012/10/27 | 84 | / 49 | Ohio | 20 | at | 111 | / 107 | Miami-OH | 23 | 179 | 63.7% | / 83.5% |
2012/11/01 | 113 | / 120 | Eastern Michigan | 14 | at | 85 | / 47 | Ohio | 45 | 171 | 76.4% | / 83.1% |
2012/11/07 | 81 | / 80 | Bowling Green | 26 | at | 82 | / 48 | Ohio | 14 | 156 | 54.1% | / 76.8% |
2012/11/14 | 86 | / 63 | Ohio | 27 | at | 77 | / 77 | Ball St. | 52 | 166 | 41.1% | / 77.4% |
2012/11/23 | 86 | / 80 | Ohio | 6 | at | 68 | / 62 | Kent St. | 28 | 171 | 38.6% | / 39.2% |
2012/12/28 | 88 | / 79 | Ohio | -- | vs | 68 | / 68 | LA-Monroe | -- | -- | 36.5% | / 47.2% |
28. Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
Friday, December 21 at 7:30 PM
Ball State Cardinals (9 - 3; 6 - 2 Mid-American)
vs
UCF Knights (9 - 4; 7 - 2 Conference-USA)
vs
UCF Knights (9 - 4; 7 - 2 Conference-USA)
GUGS Score: 35.4
Justin
Ball State Cardinals | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.415 | 75 | 0.375 | 102 | 20.2 | 65 | 23.2 | 78 | 172.9 | 24 |
UCF Knights | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.626 | 38 | 0.369 | 109 | 24.6 | 27 | 20.0 | 52 | 158.1 | 99 |
We're moving up the ranks here ... very slowly. This is what happens when you have 35 bowl games. Both teams have winning records against absolutely atrocious schedules; the (75) Ball State Cardinals played the 23rd-weakest schedule, while the (38) UCF Knights did even better by facing the 16th-weakest schedule. The Knights managed to piece together some respectable offensive stats over that slate, while Ball State only managed the 65th-best offense and 78th-best defense. In this average-paced game with average-strength opponents, TFG gives a nod to Central Florida. UCF 39, Ball St. 33 (70.3%); 165 plays.
Eddie
Ball State Cardinals | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.457 | 66 | 0.456 | 100 | 17.8 | 46 | 18.5 | 81 | 167.4 | 59 |
UCF Knights | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | WinPct | SoS | Off. | Def. | Pace | ||||||
2012 | 0.696 | 41 | 0.461 | 97 | 18.2 | 42 | 14.3 | 43 | 163.7 | 101 |
Much like Louisiana-Monroe and UCF, this game will be relatively high scoring thanks to two mediocre defenses. The Knights are marginally better with a 9.8 +/- 9.0 PPH defense, whereas the Cardinals will play matador at 14.5 +/- 7.9 PPH. The deciding factor will be the consistency of the UCF 30.8 +/- 25.3 PPH offense. If they show up, Ball State doesn't stand a chance. If they don't, well, we could have a game. If everything goes according to plan, UCF wins it. UCF 31, Ball St. 28 (66.9%); 165 plays.
Ball State Cardinals Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/08/30 | 111 | / 111 | Eastern Michigan | 26 | at | 104 | / 99 | Ball St. | 37 | 193 | 61.6% | / 70.4% |
2012/09/08 | 102 | / 99 | Ball St. | 27 | at | 33 | / 33 | Clemson | 52 | 183 | 9.7% | / 17.0% |
2012/09/15 | 101 | / 99 | Ball St. | 41 | at | 110 | / 92 | Indiana | 39 | 214 | 45.7% | / 49.5% |
2012/09/22 | 52 | / 55 | South Florida | 27 | at | 103 | / 97 | Ball St. | 31 | 168 | 26.4% | / 16.9% |
2012/09/29 | 98 | / 94 | Ball St. | 43 | at | 108 | / 104 | Kent St. | 45 | 182 | 50.0% | / 75.7% |
2012/10/06 | 58 | / 57 | Northern Ill. | 35 | at | 98 | / 94 | Ball St. | 23 | 207 | 33.4% | / 29.5% |
2012/10/13 | 79 | / 85 | Western Michigan | 24 | at | 96 | / 96 | Ball St. | 30 | 188 | 47.2% | / 47.5% |
2012/10/20 | 87 | / 93 | Ball St. | 41 | at | 106 | / 113 | Central Michigan | 30 | 172 | 51.2% | / 58.8% |
2012/10/27 | 86 | / 91 | Ball St. | 30 | at | 103 | / 108 | Army | 22 | 168 | 52.3% | / 46.7% |
2012/11/06 | 82 | / 86 | Ball St. | 34 | at | 61 | / 44 | Toledo | 27 | 177 | 31.3% | / 24.9% |
2012/11/14 | 86 | / 63 | Ohio | 27 | at | 77 | / 77 | Ball St. | 52 | 166 | 58.9% | / 22.6% |
2012/11/23 | 74 | / 67 | Ball St. | 31 | at | 110 | / 106 | Miami-OH | 24 | 172 | 76.5% | / 68.5% |
2012/12/21 | 38 | / 41 | UCF | -- | vs | 75 | / 66 | Ball St. | -- | -- | 29.7% | / 33.1% |
UCF Knights Season Summary
Date | TFG | RBA | Away Team | TFG | RBA | Home Team | Plays | Odds TFG / RBA | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2012/08/30 | 43 | / 62 | UCF | 56 | at | 119 | / 123 | Akron | 14 | 170 | 97.3% | / 95.6% |
2012/09/08 | 52 | / 62 | UCF | 16 | at | 15 | / 20 | Ohio St. | 31 | 161 | 16.3% | / 28.3% |
2012/09/15 | 91 | / 93 | FIU | 20 | at | 48 | / 61 | UCF | 33 | 159 | 84.0% | / 68.4% |
2012/09/29 | 28 | / 30 | Missouri | 21 | at | 50 | / 56 | UCF | 16 | 166 | 47.5% | / 30.7% |
2012/10/04 | 91 | / 86 | East Carolina | 20 | at | 52 | / 45 | UCF | 40 | 147 | 78.6% | / 71.7% |
2012/10/13 | 76 | / 80 | Southern Miss. | 31 | at | 44 | / 51 | UCF | 38 | 169 | 73.6% | / 66.0% |
2012/10/20 | 46 | / 50 | UCF | 35 | at | 121 | / 122 | Memphis | 17 | 160 | 90.1% | / 93.0% |
2012/10/27 | 46 | / 44 | UCF | 54 | at | 85 | / 75 | Marshall | 17 | 184 | 58.9% | / 72.0% |
2012/11/03 | 67 | / 70 | SMU | 17 | at | 42 | / 37 | UCF | 42 | 138 | 68.0% | / 63.3% |
2012/11/10 | 32 | / 34 | UCF | 31 | at | 101 | / 105 | UTEP | 24 | 157 | 82.0% | / 84.1% |
2012/11/17 | 32 | / 38 | UCF | 21 | at | 42 | / 47 | Tulsa | 23 | 179 | 53.7% | / 65.9% |
2012/11/24 | 111 | / 119 | UAB | 24 | at | 32 | / 36 | UCF | 49 | 166 | 88.5% | / 83.1% |
2012/12/01 | 33 | / 41 | UCF | 27 | at | 44 | / 50 | Tulsa | 33 | 192 | 54.0% | / 45.6% |
2012/12/21 | 38 | / 41 | UCF | -- | vs | 75 | / 66 | Ball St. | -- | -- | 70.3% | / 66.9% |
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