2012 - 2013 Bowl Previews: Part III

Today is Part III of our 2012 - 2013 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
  Fresno State Bulldogs vs SMU Mustangs
• Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
  North Carolina State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores
• R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
  East Carolina Pirates vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
• MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
  Boise State Broncos vs Washington Huskies
• San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl
  BYU Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs

Full previews after the jump ....

27. Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

Monday, December 24 at 8:00 PM

Fresno State Bulldogs (8 - 3; 7 - 1 Mountain West)
vs
SMU Mustangs (5 - 6; 5 - 3 Conference-USA)

GUGS Score: 36.2

Eddie

Fresno State Bulldogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.696	40	0.499	68	20.2	26	15.3	51	167.1	64

SMU Mustangs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.415	73	0.483	76	15.7	72	17.3	70	166.0	75

Fresno St. 38, SMU 21 (69.5%); 166 plays.

Justin

Fresno State Bulldogs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.645	32	0.433	76	24.4	29	19.2	43	173.2	22

SMU Mustangs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.472	67	0.440	73	20.4	60	21.3	61	161.7	86

Oh look, yet another bowl game involving a team that doesn't have a winning record against FBS competition. The sad part is that this is only the fifth of nine such bowl games. These teams played a roughly equivalent schedule, but the (32) Bulldogs have a 2.1 PPH advantage on defense and a 4.0 PPH advantage on offense over the (67) Mustangs. Oddly enough, while Fresno State plays at a faster clip than SMU, SMU has done well in recent games played at a quick page (e.g., wins over Tulsa, Houston, and UTEP). Still, TFG thinks the Mustangs have a steep hill to climb. Fresno St. 38, SMU 33 (67.0%); 167 plays.

Fresno State Bulldogs Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/09/08	85	/  86	Fresno St.	25	at	6	/   3	Oregon	42	199	4.9%	/   6.7%
2012/09/15	99	/ 116	Colorado	14	at	80	/  70	Fresno St.	69	175	76.6%	/  50.7%
2012/09/22	69	/  54	Fresno St.	26	at	48	/  67	Tulsa	27	196	32.1%	/  38.1%
2012/09/29	57	/  67	SDSU	40	at	62	/  52	Fresno St.	52	181	58.9%	/  51.0%
2012/10/06	61	/  53	Fresno St.	28	at	109	/ 107	Colorado St.	7	168	76.4%	/  83.7%
2012/10/13	53	/  46	Fresno St.	10	at	11	/  11	Boise St.	20	167	15.2%	/  22.8%
2012/10/20	90	/  86	Wyoming	14	at	58	/  43	Fresno St.	42	186	79.7%	/  68.9%
2012/10/27	45	/  41	Fresno St.	49	at	110	/ 102	New Mexico	32	175	78.7%	/  87.3%
2012/11/03	115	/ 116	Hawaii	10	at	49	/  46	Fresno St.	45	182	89.3%	/  90.2%
2012/11/10	49	/  45	Fresno St.	52	at	59	/  57	Nevada	36	196	50.9%	/  48.5%
2012/11/24	69	/  74	Air Force	15	at	45	/  40	Fresno St.	48	177	64.0%	/  65.2%
2012/12/24	67	/  73	SMU	--	vs	32	/  40	Fresno St.	--	--	67.0%	/  69.5%

SMU Mustangs Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/09/02	58	/  72	SMU	24	at	36	/  29	Baylor	59	192	27.3%	/  29.5%
2012/09/15	21	/  17	Texas A&M	48	at	75	/  80	SMU	3	194	28.7%	/  18.8%
2012/09/29	9	/  16	TCU	24	at	90	/  82	SMU	16	173	10.8%	/  15.7%
2012/10/06	85	/  76	SMU	17	at	99	/  98	UTEP	0	172	49.8%	/  50.2%
2012/10/13	84	/  78	SMU	26	at	122	/ 122	Tulane	27	167	85.8%	/  90.9%
2012/10/18	42	/  48	Houston	42	at	91	/  78	SMU	72	194	33.3%	/  31.3%
2012/10/27	120	/ 122	Memphis	13	at	74	/  68	SMU	44	140	90.8%	/  85.6%
2012/11/03	67	/  70	SMU	17	at	42	/  37	UCF	42	138	32.0%	/  36.7%
2012/11/10	91	/ 112	Southern Miss.	6	at	73	/  71	SMU	34	155	65.6%	/  67.8%
2012/11/17	66	/  72	SMU	14	at	96	/  94	Rice	36	157	69.6%	/  63.5%
2012/11/24	41	/  50	Tulsa	27	at	72	/  73	SMU	35	193	33.3%	/  38.8%
2012/12/24	67	/  73	SMU	--	vs	32	/  40	Fresno St.	--	--	33.0%	/  30.5%

26. Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Monday, December 31 at 12:05 PM

North Carolina State Wolfpack (6 - 5; 4 - 4 ACC)
vs
Vanderbilt Commodores (7 - 4; 5 - 3 SEC)

GUGS Score: 40.0

Justin

North Carolina State Wolfpack
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.529	58	0.476	67	17.7	88	16.9	26	176.9	12

Vanderbilt Commodores
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.614	41	0.527	55	20.3	62	16.8	24	162.9	78

Well at least both of these teams have winning records. That's a start. These teams are actually somewhat similar in that they have similar defenses, but (41) Vanderbilt has a slightly better offense. The other difference is that (58) North Carolina State plays at a much quicker pace than Vandy. On some level it makes sense; if your offense is only 0.8 PPH better than your defense, you'll want more plays to reduce the odds of an errant turnover deciding the game. But in this case it might not help too much. TFG thinks this one will be close, but ultimately Vanderbilt will prove itself to be the better team. Vanderbilt 31, North Carolina St. 29 (58.7%); 169 plays.

Eddie

North Carolina State Wolfpack
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.513	63	0.527	52	14.4	82	13.5	35	168.3	41

Vanderbilt Commodores
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.774	33	0.549	15	18.2	41	11.2	16	161.9	109

Continuing with my theme of skipping any game with over 70% confidence.  If you're going to get thumped by Vanderbilt, maybe it was a good idea to fire your coach after all.  Vanderbilt 27, North Carolina St. 24 (74.1%); 165 plays.

North Carolina State Wolfpack Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/08/31	54	/  40	Tennessee	35	vs	60	/  54	North Carolina St.	21	185	47.9%	/  65.4%
2012/09/08	65	/  58	North Carolina St.	10	at	38	/  57	Connecticut	7	159	25.0%	/  43.2%
2012/09/15	NA	/ 120	South Alabama	7	at	62	/  56	North Carolina St.	31	164	68.1%	/  99.9%
2012/09/29	47	/  55	North Carolina St.	37	at	42	/  49	Miami-FL	44	206	39.3%	/  47.2%
2012/10/06	3	/  12	Florida St.	16	at	51	/  52	North Carolina St.	17	175	21.6%	/  13.2%
2012/10/20	50	/  45	North Carolina St.	20	at	74	/  79	Maryland	18	190	51.7%	/  61.3%
2012/10/27	54	/  51	North Carolina St.	35	at	34	/  39	North Carolina	43	209	28.4%	/  35.9%
2012/11/03	100	/  98	Virginia	33	at	55	/  58	North Carolina St.	6	185	78.9%	/  76.2%
2012/11/10	87	/  85	Wake Forest	6	at	67	/  63	North Carolina St.	37	189	66.5%	/  71.8%
2012/11/17	56	/  60	North Carolina St.	48	at	21	/  15	Clemson	62	223	27.5%	/  22.4%
2012/11/24	95	/  96	Boston College	10	at	59	/  61	North Carolina St.	27	183	73.2%	/  73.4%
2012/12/31	41	/  33	Vanderbilt	--	vs	58	/  63	North Carolina St.	--	--	41.3%	/  25.9%

Vanderbilt Commodores Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/08/30	11	/  12	South Carolina	17	at	61	/  27	Vanderbilt	13	145	19.8%	/  38.6%
2012/09/08	59	/  30	Vanderbilt	13	at	66	/  56	Northwestern	23	170	42.6%	/  74.2%
2012/09/22	61	/  44	Vanderbilt	3	at	21	/   5	Georgia	48	167	19.9%	/  48.0%
2012/10/06	75	/  43	Vanderbilt	19	at	28	/  33	Missouri	15	170	18.0%	/  39.8%
2012/10/13	6	/   6	Florida	31	at	71	/  44	Vanderbilt	17	162	16.2%	/  15.7%
2012/10/20	61	/  84	Auburn	13	at	70	/  42	Vanderbilt	17	147	54.6%	/  67.2%
2012/10/27	124	/ 124	Massachusetts	7	at	69	/  45	Vanderbilt	49	161	97.5%	/  96.0%
2012/11/03	65	/  39	Vanderbilt	40	at	97	/  85	Kentucky	0	170	65.4%	/  74.3%
2012/11/10	51	/  35	Vanderbilt	27	at	60	/  53	Mississippi	26	193	49.8%	/  56.3%
2012/11/17	48	/  58	Tennessee	18	at	52	/  32	Vanderbilt	41	178	48.1%	/  69.2%
2012/11/24	47	/  31	Vanderbilt	55	at	102	/  93	Wake Forest	21	165	81.1%	/  86.6%
2012/12/31	41	/  33	Vanderbilt	--	vs	58	/  63	North Carolina St.	--	--	58.7%	/  74.1%

22. R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, December 22 at 12:00 PM

East Carolina Pirates (7 - 4; 7 - 1 Conference-USA)
vs
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (7 - 4; 6 - 2 Sun Belt)

GUGS Score: 43.7

Eddie

East Carolina Pirates
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.286	87	0.474	84	16.1	66	20.7	102	170.0	27

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.448	70	0.432	118	18.3	40	19.4	92	167.8	55

East Carolina 32, LA-Lafayette 31 (61.9%); 168 plays.

Justin

East Carolina Pirates
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.362	82	0.375	100	19.8	72	24.8	92	169.0	40

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.485	66	0.408	86	23.1	39	23.7	83	167.8	46

LA-Lafayette 40, East Carolina 36 (62.4%); 168 plays.

East Carolina Pirates Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/09/08	84	/  87	East Carolina	10	at	17	/  13	South Carolina	48	168	7.4%	/   9.3%
2012/09/15	92	/  87	East Carolina	24	at	53	/  65	Southern Miss.	14	170	17.0%	/  18.8%
2012/09/22	83	/  84	East Carolina	6	at	65	/  51	North Carolina	27	162	25.6%	/  27.3%
2012/09/29	96	/  92	UTEP	18	at	95	/  86	East Carolina	28	171	60.9%	/  60.4%
2012/10/04	91	/  86	East Carolina	20	at	52	/  45	UCF	40	147	21.4%	/  28.3%
2012/10/13	119	/ 117	Memphis	7	at	89	/  84	East Carolina	41	161	85.9%	/  82.2%
2012/10/20	82	/  80	East Carolina	42	at	108	/ 108	UAB	35	166	61.1%	/  60.0%
2012/10/27	78	/  78	Navy	56	at	88	/  89	East Carolina	28	158	57.0%	/  55.6%
2012/11/03	56	/  61	Houston	28	at	92	/  87	East Carolina	48	188	32.9%	/  32.3%
2012/11/17	82	/  88	East Carolina	28	at	118	/ 120	Tulane	23	177	80.4%	/  86.6%
2012/11/23	89	/  86	Marshall	59	at	83	/  87	East Carolina	65	218	52.0%	/  50.8%
2012/12/22	66	/  70	LA-Lafayette	--	vs	82	/  87	East Carolina	--	--	37.6%	/  61.9%

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/09/08	83	/  81	LA-Lafayette	37	at	99	/ 102	Troy	24	200	45.7%	/  64.5%
2012/09/15	81	/  85	LA-Lafayette	24	at	15	/  11	Oklahoma St.	65	193	8.4%	/  12.1%
2012/09/29	85	/  97	FIU	20	at	81	/  83	LA-Lafayette	48	166	63.3%	/  60.4%
2012/10/06	121	/ 122	Tulane	13	at	70	/  78	LA-Lafayette	41	165	94.9%	/  84.1%
2012/10/16	70	/  86	LA-Lafayette	23	at	92	/  98	North Texas	30	168	52.7%	/  60.4%
2012/10/23	76	/  82	Arkansas St.	50	at	73	/  89	LA-Lafayette	27	173	64.0%	/  50.6%
2012/11/03	78	/  89	LA-Lafayette	40	at	62	/  62	LA-Monroe	24	165	36.8%	/  29.1%
2012/11/10	71	/  77	LA-Lafayette	20	at	5	/   5	Florida	27	146	9.0%	/   5.0%
2012/11/17	85	/  78	Western Kentucky	27	at	67	/  73	LA-Lafayette	31	158	61.7%	/  55.1%
2012/11/24	117	/ 116	South Alabama	30	at	64	/  69	LA-Lafayette	52	173	83.2%	/  80.8%
2012/12/01	65	/  70	LA-Lafayette	35	at	113	/ 111	FL-Atlantic	21	163	80.6%	/  78.7%
2012/12/22	66	/  70	LA-Lafayette	--	vs	82	/  87	East Carolina	--	--	62.4%	/  38.1%

21. MAACO Las Vegas Bowl

Saturday, December 22 at 3:30 PM

Boise State Broncos (10 - 2; 7 - 1 Mountain West)
vs
Washington Huskies (6 - 5; 5 - 4 Pac-12)

GUGS Score: 43.9

Justin

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.810	12	0.395	92	27.6	13	15.4	14	156.0	112

Washington Huskies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.493	63	0.576	34	21.1	57	21.4	63	157.6	103

Boise St. 38, Washington 28 (81.4%); 156 plays.

Eddie

Boise State Broncos
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.915	15	0.466	93	19.0	31	10.1	10	167.9	52

Washington Huskies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.661	45	0.550	13	16.9	58	14.3	42	167.7	56

Boise St. 34, Washington 17 (69.8%); 167 plays.

Boise State Broncos Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/08/31	3	/   9	Boise St.	13	at	13	/  15	Michigan St.	17	168	70.7%	/  60.8%
2012/09/15	96	/  94	Miami-OH	12	at	3	/   7	Boise St.	39	146	97.4%	/  93.8%
2012/09/20	29	/  29	BYU	6	at	3	/  11	Boise St.	7	148	85.6%	/  74.3%
2012/09/29	3	/   7	Boise St.	32	at	120	/ 113	New Mexico	29	152	99.2%	/  99.3%
2012/10/06	14	/   8	Boise St.	40	at	72	/  77	Southern Miss.	14	173	79.1%	/  90.9%
2012/10/13	53	/  46	Fresno St.	10	at	11	/  11	Boise St.	20	167	84.8%	/  77.2%
2012/10/20	107	/ 110	UNLV	7	at	10	/   8	Boise St.	32	161	96.7%	/  94.5%
2012/10/27	9	/   9	Boise St.	45	at	98	/  86	Wyoming	14	156	88.5%	/  88.7%
2012/11/03	47	/  50	SDSU	21	at	8	/  10	Boise St.	19	144	82.4%	/  81.7%
2012/11/10	10	/  12	Boise St.	49	at	117	/ 117	Hawaii	14	174	95.8%	/  97.2%
2012/11/17	106	/ 102	Colorado St.	14	at	12	/  12	Boise St.	42	146	93.7%	/  95.9%
2012/12/01	10	/  15	Boise St.	27	at	64	/  64	Nevada	21	153	82.4%	/  82.0%
2012/12/22	63	/  45	Washington	--	vs	12	/  15	Boise St.	--	--	81.4%	/  69.8%

Washington Huskies Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/09/01	57	/  66	SDSU	12	at	63	/  47	Washington	21	145	61.4%	/  59.0%
2012/09/08	57	/  46	Washington	3	at	2	/   2	LSU	41	159	4.9%	/   5.4%
2012/09/27	5	/   6	Stanford	13	at	67	/  37	Washington	17	166	16.0%	/  26.1%
2012/10/06	65	/  37	Washington	21	at	4	/   2	Oregon	52	182	9.9%	/  21.7%
2012/10/13	18	/  15	USC	24	at	68	/  39	Washington	14	148	27.1%	/  26.1%
2012/10/20	69	/  53	Washington	17	at	54	/  51	Arizona	52	182	31.6%	/  63.6%
2012/10/27	32	/  22	Oregon St.	17	at	72	/  66	Washington	20	157	35.9%	/  47.7%
2012/11/02	74	/  60	Washington	21	at	64	/  57	California	13	172	40.2%	/  33.6%
2012/11/10	40	/  40	Utah	15	at	70	/  51	Washington	34	155	36.4%	/  39.2%
2012/11/17	64	/  44	Washington	38	at	121	/ 118	Colorado	3	146	88.2%	/  88.1%
2012/11/23	57	/  42	Washington	28	at	105	/  99	Washington St.	31	179	79.0%	/  79.4%
2012/12/22	63	/  45	Washington	--	vs	12	/  15	Boise St.	--	--	18.6%	/  30.2%

15. San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl

Thursday, December 20 at 8:00 PM

BYU Cougars (6 - 5; 0 - 1 Independents)
vs
San Diego State Aztecs (8 - 3; 7 - 1 Mountain West)

GUGS Score: 53.7

Eddie

BYU Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.822	24	0.483	77	16.7	59	10.2	11	168.9	35

San Diego State Aztecs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.713	36	0.487	73	18.8	33	14.9	49	168.4	40

BYU 31, SDSU 20 (64.6%); 168 plays.

Justin

BYU Cougars
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.740	20	0.454	70	21.3	56	14.0	9	163.3	71

San Diego State Aztecs
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2012	0.645	33	0.408	87	24.3	30	19.2	44	163.0	75

BYU 33, SDSU 31 (61.0%); 163 plays.

BYU Cougars Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/08/30	87	/  80	Washington St.	6	at	34	/  37	BYU	30	167	76.6%	/  67.8%
2012/09/15	31	/  36	BYU	21	at	41	/  46	Utah	24	178	45.5%	/  44.0%
2012/09/20	29	/  29	BYU	6	at	3	/  11	Boise St.	7	148	14.4%	/  25.7%
2012/09/28	93	/  98	Hawaii	0	at	32	/  27	BYU	47	159	86.9%	/  82.9%
2012/10/05	69	/  55	Utah St.	3	at	23	/  22	BYU	6	169	81.7%	/  70.2%
2012/10/13	46	/  35	Oregon St.	42	at	22	/  25	BYU	24	174	75.3%	/  78.5%
2012/10/20	31	/  28	BYU	14	at	4	/   6	Notre Dame	17	145	15.2%	/  39.4%
2012/10/27	30	/  25	BYU	41	at	65	/  58	Georgia Tech	17	148	57.6%	/  73.7%
2012/11/10	119	/ 121	Idaho	13	at	22	/  23	BYU	52	174	95.8%	/  96.7%
2012/11/17	23	/  24	BYU	14	at	65	/  61	SJSU	20	173	73.8%	/  82.3%
2012/11/24	22	/  26	BYU	50	at	123	/ 124	New Mexico St.	14	165	96.9%	/  96.6%
2012/12/20	33	/  36	SDSU	--	vs	20	/  24	BYU	--	--	61.0%	/  64.6%

San Diego State Aztecs Season Summary

Date	TFG	RBA	Away Team			TFG	RBA	Home Team		Plays	Odds TFG / RBA
2012/09/01	57	/  66	SDSU	12	at	63	/  47	Washington	21	145	38.6%	/  41.0%
2012/09/08	94	/  98	Army	7	at	64	/  66	SDSU	42	158	79.9%	/  72.6%
2012/09/22	80	/  76	SJSU	38	at	50	/  57	SDSU	34	167	78.7%	/  61.2%
2012/09/29	57	/  67	SDSU	40	at	62	/  52	Fresno St.	52	181	41.1%	/  49.0%
2012/10/06	106	/ 105	Hawaii	14	at	60	/  63	SDSU	52	173	85.1%	/  75.9%
2012/10/13	112	/ 107	Colorado St.	14	at	51	/  61	SDSU	38	149	90.1%	/  80.4%
2012/10/20	51	/  61	SDSU	39	at	49	/  41	Nevada	38	191	37.2%	/  39.9%
2012/10/27	108	/ 110	UNLV	13	at	50	/  60	SDSU	24	161	89.4%	/  76.6%
2012/11/03	47	/  50	SDSU	21	at	8	/  10	Boise St.	19	144	17.6%	/  18.3%
2012/11/10	68	/  69	Air Force	9	at	44	/  42	SDSU	28	162	67.0%	/  50.2%
2012/11/24	31	/  35	SDSU	42	at	94	/  92	Wyoming	28	168	80.7%	/  74.3%
2012/12/20	33	/  36	SDSU	--	vs	20	/  24	BYU	--	--	39.0%	/  35.4%

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