Week 19: Tuesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Wed Jan 1 00:24:05 2014

Arizona	42	Boston College	19	Final
Virginia Tech	10	UCLA	44	Final
Rice	7	Mississippi St.	44	Final
Duke	48	Texas A&M	52	Final

Week 19: Monday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Tue Dec 31 02:24:04 2013

Mississippi	25	Georgia Tech	17	Final
Arizona St.	23	Texas Tech	37	Final
Oregon	30	Texas	7	Final
Middle Tenn.	6	Navy	24	Final

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part VII

Today is Part VII of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
  Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Mississippi Rebels
• Rose Bowl Game presented by Visio
  Michigan State Spartans vs Stanford Cardinal
• AT&T Cotton Bowl Classic
  Missouri Tigers vs Oklahoma State Cowboys
• Discover Orange Bowl
  Ohio State Buckeyes vs Clemson Tigers
• Capital One Bowl
  South Carolina Gamecocks vs Wisconsin Badgers

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 18: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 29 02:24:05 2013

Michigan	14	Kansas St.	31	Final
Miami-FL	9	Louisville	36	Final
Cincinnati	17	North Carolina	39	Final
Rutgers	16	Notre Dame	29	Final

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part VI

Today is Part VI of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Allstate Sugar Bowl
  Alabama Crimson Tide vs Oklahoma Sooners
• Outback Bowl
  LSU Tigers vs Iowa Hawkeyes
• Discover BCS National Championship Game
  Auburn Tigers vs Florida State Seminoles
• Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
  Baylor Bears vs UCF Knights
• Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
  Kansas State Wildcats vs Michigan Wolverines

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 18: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 28 01:24:04 2013

Marshall	31	Maryland	20	Final
Syracuse	21	Minnesota	17	Final
BYU	16	Washington	31	Final

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part V

Today is Part V of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Hyundai Sun Bowl
  UCLA Bruins vs Virginia Tech Hokies
• BBVA Compass Bowl
  Houston Cougars vs Vanderbilt Commodores
• Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl
  Georgia Bulldogs vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
• Valero Alamo Bowl
  Texas Longhorns vs Oregon Ducks
• Fight Hunger Bowl
  Washington Huskies vs BYU Cougars

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 18: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Dec 27 01:24:04 2013

Pittsburgh	30	Bowling Green	27	Final
Utah St.	21	Northern Ill.	14	Final

Week 18: Tuesday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Tue Dec 24 23:54:03 2013

Boise St.

23

Oregon St.

38

Final

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part IV

Today is Part IV of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• AutoZone Liberty Bowl
  Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Rice Owls
• National University Holiday Bowl
  Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Arizona State Sun Devils
• Belk Bowl
  North Carolina Tar Heels vs Cincinnati Bearcats
• Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
  Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos
• San Diego Country Credit Union Poinettia Bowl
  Northern Illinois Huskies vs Utah State Aggies

Full previews after the jump ....

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part III

Today is Part III of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
  Texas A&M Aggies vs Duke Blue Devils
• Texas Bowl
  Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Syracuse Orange
• Gildan New Mexico Bowl
  Colorado State Rams vs Washington State Cougars
• Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
  San Diego State Aztecs vs Buffalo Bulls
• Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl
  USC Trojans vs Fresno State Bulldogs

Full previews after the jump ....

Week 17: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 22 01:04:05 2013

Washington St.	45	Colorado St.	48	Final
Buffalo	24	SDSU	49	Final
Fresno St.	20	USC	45	Final
Tulane	21	LA-Lafayette	24	Final

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part II

Today is Part II of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
  Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs Tulane Green Wave
• GoDaddy.com Bowl
  Ball State Cardinals vs Arkansas State Red Wolves
• AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
  Boston College Eagles vs Arizona Wildcats
• Little Caesar's Bowl
  Bowling Green Falcons vs Pittsburgh Panthers
• Russell Athletic Bowl
  Louisville Cardinals vs Miami Hurricanes

Full previews after the jump ....

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews: Part I

Today is Part I of our 2013 - 2014 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the

• Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
  Ohio Bobcats vs East Carolina Pirates
• Heart of Dallas Bowl
  North Texas Mean Green vs UNLV Rebels
• New Era Pinstripe Bowl
  Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights
• Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
  Navy Midshipmen vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
• Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
  Maryland Terrapins vs Marshall Thundering Herd

Full previews after the jump ....

2013 - 2014 Bowl Previews

In just a few minutes we'll start posting our 2013-2014 bowl previews, stretching between today and December 30th. Unfortunately these pesky "day jobs" got in the way and prevented us from writing up actual full previews about the games, the matchups, and what to expect. Our previews will still contain

• rating the bowl games from best to worst according to GUGS;
• side-by-side comparisons of team profiles;
• game-by-game season summaries for each team; and
• predictions from both the RBA and TFG systems.

We'd love to do more, but sadly time won't allow this year. Our apologies, but please enjoy the statistical previews, and don't be surprised if we decide to automate the text previews for next year ....

Week 16: Saturday Predictions

60 Navy 34 104 Army 26

67 Navy 34  93 Army 24

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 16: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sat Dec 14 20:34:04 2013

Army

7

Navy

34

Final

Week 16: Top 25 -- TFG

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	+1	Florida St.  ( 12 - 0 )	0.970	0.453	75	30.9	1	8.4	3	160.3	95
2	-1	Alabama  ( 10 - 1 )	0.969	0.592	36	27.2	4	7.5	1	147.5	125
3	--	Michigan St.  ( 11 - 1 )	0.902	0.535	59	17.9	51	7.8	2	159.3	101
4	--	Wisconsin  ( 8 - 3 )	0.887	0.544	55	22.4	15	10.3	5	157.9	107
5	+2	Baylor  ( 10 - 1 )	0.870	0.587	38	28.9	2	14.1	33	189.0	2
6	--	Ohio St.  ( 11 - 1 )	0.864	0.541	57	28.1	3	14.1	32	165.6	77
7	-2	Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 2 )	0.858	0.608	30	24.5	10	12.5	15	183.2	7
8	+1	Stanford  ( 11 - 2 )	0.856	0.612	26	21.8	18	11.2	7	154.9	119
9	-1	Louisville  ( 10 - 1 )	0.851	0.398	88	21.0	28	10.9	6	155.4	118
10	+1	Auburn  ( 11 - 1 )	0.848	0.694	4	26.5	6	13.9	26	169.5	54
11	+3	LSU  ( 8 - 3 )	0.826	0.668	8	24.3	11	13.5	24	159.2	102
12	+1	Clemson  ( 8 - 2 )	0.825	0.612	27	22.4	14	12.5	14	179.8	15
13	+2	Oregon  ( 9 - 2 )	0.821	0.539	58	24.9	9	14.0	27	177.6	20
14	-4	Missouri  ( 10 - 2 )	0.814	0.643	17	21.3	23	12.3	13	174.0	32
15	+1	Texas A&M  ( 7 - 4 )	0.808	0.653	11	26.8	5	15.6	48	178.5	18
16	-4	Arizona St.  ( 9 - 3 )	0.805	0.650	12	25.8	8	15.2	43	172.5	38
17	--	South Carolina  ( 9 - 2 )	0.796	0.628	20	21.6	20	13.0	16	159.1	103
18	+2	Bowling Green  ( 9 - 3 )	0.793	0.292	117	18.8	44	11.4	9	156.7	115
19	+2	Oklahoma  ( 10 - 2 )	0.791	0.609	28	23.2	13	14.0	29	161.5	92
20	-2	Georgia  ( 7 - 4 )	0.783	0.682	6	26.0	7	16.0	52	170.3	47
21	-2	Kansas St.  ( 7 - 4 )	0.776	0.551	54	24.1	12	15.1	42	157.7	109
22	--	BYU  ( 7 - 4 )	0.766	0.603	31	18.2	48	11.7	11	184.2	5
23	+1	Washington  ( 7 - 4 )	0.759	0.574	46	21.0	27	13.7	25	174.0	33
24	+1	UCF  ( 11 - 1 )	0.748	0.416	78	22.0	16	14.6	36	157.5	110
25	-2	Utah St.  ( 7 - 5 )	0.744	0.413	81	15.4	79	10.3	4	169.0	60

Rankings through games of 2013-12-08
Data from CFBStats

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

For the first time since September 7, 2011, we have a new team atop the TFG rankings. That week, Ohio State blew out Arkon, 42-0, and took a slight lead over Alabama. The next week, however, the Buckeyes would win a close game against Toledo, while the Crimson Tide would defeat a solid Penn State squad. Alabama wouldn't look back, ran off a string of two BCS titles and complete domination. Even now the 2013 Crimson Tide squad would be better than any of the non-Alabama BCS champions of the last decade.

Florida State put an exclamation point on their season with a blowout of an overachieving Duke team. No one really expected Duke to win, but the Blue Devils managed to hang with the Seminoles for a quarter. The closest the Blue Devils got to FSU was with about 3 minutes left in the first quarter: the game was still tied at 0 and Duke started a drive from their own 27. It was all downhill from there. Duke's reward for getting beat by the likely 2013 BCS Champions and 2013 Heisman Award winner? Playing the 2012 Heisman Award winner in the Chik-fil-A Bowl. Sometimes life isn't fair, and sometimes life is Duke Blue Devil football unfair.

On paper the BCS title game isn't going to be much of a contest; Florida State's defense is almost as good as Alabama's (8.3 PPH vs 7.5), but their offense is currently the best in FBS. The same was said about the Iron Bowl, though, and Auburn found a way to win that in historic fashion.

The other BCS games are a mixed bag. (6) Ohio State's consolation prize is (12) Clemson, a team TFG thinks they should beat. (1) Alabama's consolation prize is to beat up on (19) Oklahoma; I imagine that one won't be pretty. Speaking of not pretty, (24) UCF is going to be fed to (5) Baylor; the Knights like to play slow to protect their second-tier defense, so look to Baylor to make a meal of them. I'm curious to see what happens when (3) Michigan State faces (8) Stanford. Both teams play a grind-it-out, defense-first style, so don't look for much glitz or style there. The Spartans are slight favorites, but Stanford will have plenty of time to prepare.

Once the full bowl schedules are released we'll get started on our previews, but until then enjoy Army-Navy.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 16: Top 25 -- RBA

Mouse over column headers for definitions, or see this page

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama  ( 10 - 1 )	0.948	0.548	19	26.3	5	6.6	1	155.7	125
2	--	Florida St.  ( 12 - 0 )	0.936	0.540	33	30.6	1	7.3	3	165.5	81
3	--	Wisconsin  ( 8 - 3 )	0.871	0.533	47	23.4	10	9.1	4	161.6	115
4	+1	Michigan St.  ( 11 - 1 )	0.840	0.542	28	16.9	57	6.9	2	166.6	70
5	-1	LSU  ( 8 - 3 )	0.840	0.550	14	26.4	4	11.6	15	160.3	119
6	+1	Oregon  ( 9 - 2 )	0.827	0.530	53	25.9	7	11.9	18	177.5	3
7	-1	Ohio St.  ( 11 - 1 )	0.813	0.525	58	26.0	6	12.1	21	160.5	118
8	--	Baylor  ( 10 - 1 )	0.808	0.563	4	27.8	2	12.1	23	175.8	5
9	--	Stanford  ( 11 - 2 )	0.803	0.544	26	23.3	11	10.9	11	166.5	71
10	+1	Missouri  ( 10 - 2 )	0.799	0.527	55	22.7	12	11.3	12	174.4	9
11	+1	Oklahoma  ( 10 - 2 )	0.797	0.550	16	22.2	18	10.6	9	171.6	17
12	-2	Texas A&M  ( 7 - 4 )	0.795	0.554	9	27.6	3	13.0	35	173.9	10
13	+2	Arizona St.  ( 9 - 3 )	0.793	0.537	38	25.4	8	12.5	29	174.7	8
14	-1	Oklahoma St.  ( 9 - 2 )	0.786	0.555	7	22.3	15	11.7	17	175.3	6
15	-1	Clemson  ( 8 - 2 )	0.777	0.531	51	22.3	13	11.7	16	169.0	35
16	+1	South Carolina  ( 9 - 2 )	0.764	0.541	32	22.2	17	12.3	24	158.2	124
17	-1	Louisville  ( 10 - 1 )	0.760	0.481	76	20.8	23	10.6	10	164.8	95
18	--	Kansas St.  ( 7 - 4 )	0.759	0.538	37	22.3	14	12.9	34	165.4	82
19	+1	Washington  ( 7 - 4 )	0.748	0.551	12	21.4	21	12.0	20	168.9	39
20	+2	Georgia  ( 7 - 4 )	0.732	0.546	23	24.8	9	14.7	50	160.8	116
21	-2	Cincinnati  ( 8 - 3 )	0.729	0.496	66	17.8	45	12.3	25	169.0	36
22	-1	Auburn  ( 11 - 1 )	0.729	0.552	11	22.3	16	13.1	38	159.8	120
23	+2	BYU  ( 7 - 4 )	0.724	0.485	74	16.2	68	10.6	8	170.7	26
24	-1	Iowa  ( 7 - 4 )	0.723	0.528	54	19.0	35	10.6	6	163.8	102
25	-1	Florida  ( 4 - 7 )	0.723	0.563	3	17.1	53	9.2	5	160.5	117

Rankings through games of 2013-12-08
Data from CFBStats

New entries: none.

Dropped out: none.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

TFG at 1,000

It's hard to believe, but this is the 1000th post on this blog. It's been 1,509 days since I decided I needed a hobby and set virtual pen to virtual paper. In many ways I still feel like an imitation of a real sports statistician, mainly because I only do this part-time. Much has changed in the four-plus years I've been doing this, as the outside world has gotten much more sophisticated in their understanding of and analysis of college football. In particular I have a lot of respect for the crew over at Football Study Hall (helmed by Bill Connelly), Football Outsiders, and the small but awesome team of sports stats geeks at ESPN, lead by Dean Oliver. If you ever attend the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference or have a chance to meet any of these people, go do it.

This blog has been my hobby, my outlet, and my permission to find time for myself to play around with and learn new things: CSS, Javascript, some chart APIs, and OAuth. You can probably tell I'm a much better under-the-hood coder than I am a UI guy, and for that I'd like to apologize for the design here. Send me your therapy bill. But in order to get as much content online as we do, most of the posts here are created using some form of automation. This has resulted in a large codebase that is awe-inspiring, a gift, and a frustration.

I almost walked away from the blog at the beginning of the 2012 season because it had gotten too complex and there was too much happening in my life to really find time for it. I'm glad that I didn't, but it was close.

The other important thing I've learned -- in a visceral way -- is that it's really really hard to be a good writer. There's an amazing amount of time, effort, and editing that goes into creating good content; at least that's what I've been told, because I'm not sure what I write here can really be considered "good". Back in his Salon.com days, King Kaufman said that writing an article is like having to hand in an English essay: come up with a topic or idea, craft your argument or angle, go through a few drafts, and then hand it in. Now do that every (week)day for as long as you have that job. It's maddening, and the drop-off in actual human-created content is the canary in the coal mine for when my real job or life gets in the way. In that respect I'm glad that I have a day job, because there's no way I'd be able to support myself doing this by itself.

Looking back on the past few years, though, there are a few articles of which I'm pretty proud. I've gotten a lot of mileage with my off-the-cuff study of the ACC and hinting that it -- statistically -- is less predictable than the other BCS conferences.

I enjoyed exploring why all undefeated teams are not created equal, and there's a big difference between 2007 Hawaii (who got rocked in the Sugar Bowl by Georgia) and 2010 TCU (who finished the 2010-2011 season at the top of my rankings after beating Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl).

There is, of course, Tebow Tebow Tebow.

Eddie and I learned that we can't kick field goals.

We got to interview Ken Massey and Mike Leach. Coach Leach had a lot to say. But that didn't surprise us.

We were the first site (that I know of) to actually post near-real-time in-game win probabilities for all FBS games.

So thanks for the first 1,000 posts, and here's to the next 1,000. I know there's a small group of dedicated readers, and I thank you for your comments, emails, and tweets. We'll check in again sometime around mid-November of 2017. Hopefully I'll have a new design up by then.

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 16: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Connecticut (0.087); Rutgers (0.069); South Alabama (0.051); Rice (0.048); Fresno St. (0.036)

Biggest drops: Memphis (-0.110); South Florida (-0.059); LA-Lafayette (-0.041); Marshall (-0.036); Arizona St. (-0.030)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 16: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Marshall (0.130); Connecticut (0.029); Arizona St. (0.022); Texas (0.018); Utah St. (0.011)

Biggest drops: Memphis (-0.054); Rutgers (-0.036); Fresno St. (-0.034); SMU (-0.033); Cincinnati (-0.025)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 15: Saturday Predictions

12 Arizona St. 29   9 Stanford 31

15 Arizona St. 29   9 Stanford 28

11 Auburn 29  10 Missouri 30

21 Auburn 29  11 Missouri 28

7 Baylor 40  32 Texas 32

8 Baylor 38  33 Texas 27

96 Connecticut 23  70 Memphis 26

107 Connecticut 27  79 Memphis 24

2 Florida St. 40  55 Duke 22

2 Florida St. 49  56 Duke 17

45 Fresno St. 27  23 Utah St. 29

44 Fresno St. 28  34 Utah St. 27

3 Michigan St. 28   6 Ohio St. 24

5 Michigan St. 28   6 Ohio St. 24

5 Oklahoma St. 33  21 Oklahoma 29

13 Oklahoma St. 35  12 Oklahoma 24

57 Rice 31  44 Marshall 33

63 Rice 34  74 Marshall 28

92 Rutgers 25  95 South Florida 23

76 Rutgers 28 111 South Florida 17

83 SMU 25  25 UCF 35

69 SMU 21  26 UCF 35

89 South Alabama 30  80 LA-Lafayette 32

89 South Alabama 31  66 LA-Lafayette 32

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Dec 8 02:34:04 2013

Stanford	44	Arizona St.	14	Final
Missouri	42	Auburn	59	Final
Texas	10	Baylor	30	Final
Utah St.	17	Fresno St.	24	Final
Memphis	10	Connecticut	45	Final
Duke	7	Florida St.	45	Final
Ohio St.	24	Michigan St.	34	Final
Oklahoma	33	Oklahoma St.	24	Final
Marshall	24	Rice	41	Final
South Florida	6	Rutgers	31	Final
LA-Lafayette	8	South Alabama	30	Final
UCF	17	SMU	13	Final

Week 15: Friday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Fri Dec 6 23:54:04 2013

Bowling Green

47

Northern Ill.

27

Final

Week 15: Friday Predictions

40 Northern Ill. 26  20 Bowling Green 29

37 Northern Ill. 31  40 Bowling Green 21

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Thursday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Thu Dec 5 23:54:03 2013

Louisville

31

Cincinnati

24

Final

Week 15: Thursday Predictions

37 Cincinnati 23   8 Louisville 28

19 Cincinnati 34  16 Louisville 20

Key
Close game							Certain victory

Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

Week 15: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2013-12-01

Legitimate Title Contenders

Florida State Seminoles
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2013	0.968	2	0.449	75	31.4	1	8.8	3	159.5	99

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2013/09/02	6	Florida St.	41	at	30	Pittsburgh	13	140	62.7%
2013/09/14	84	Nevada	7	at	5	Florida St.	62	154	97.1%
2013/09/28	3	Florida St.	48	at	90	Boston College	34	163	96.2%
2013/10/05	52	Maryland	0	at	3	Florida St.	63	170	88.8%
2013/10/19	2	Florida St.	51	at	6	Clemson	14	188	57.6%
2013/10/26	65	North Carolina St.	17	at	2	Florida St.	49	169	97.4%
2013/11/02	33	Miami-FL	14	at	2	Florida St.	41	150	89.4%
2013/11/09	2	Florida St.	59	at	83	Wake Forest	3	173	97.1%
2013/11/16	63	Syracuse	3	at	2	Florida St.	59	146	96.0%
2013/11/23	119	Idaho	14	at	2	Florida St.	80	190	99.7%
2013/11/30	2	Florida St.	37	at	34	Florida	7	137	93.0%
2013/12/07	55	Duke	22	vs	2	Florida St.	40	165	95.8%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 95.8%
Most difficult game left: December 7, vs Duke Blue Devils, 95.8%

What are YOU doing here??

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2013	0.870	6	0.507	64	27.5	3	13.4	21	165.5	78

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2013/08/31	111	Buffalo	20	at	19	Ohio St.	40	163	93.6%
2013/09/07	57	SDSU	7	at	23	Ohio St.	42	164	79.8%
2013/09/14	13	Ohio St.	52	at	69	California	34	206	79.2%
2013/09/28	5	Wisconsin	24	at	19	Ohio St.	31	159	40.9%
2013/10/05	15	Ohio St.	40	at	27	Northwestern	30	172	58.0%
2013/10/19	37	Iowa	24	at	10	Ohio St.	34	156	80.2%
2013/10/26	29	Penn State	14	at	10	Ohio St.	63	177	74.7%
2013/11/02	7	Ohio St.	56	at	112	Purdue	0	159	96.4%
2013/11/16	4	Ohio St.	60	at	81	Illinois	35	197	94.8%
2013/11/23	59	Indiana	14	at	5	Ohio St.	42	169	87.1%
2013/11/30	5	Ohio St.	42	at	33	Michigan	41	166	79.4%
2013/12/07	6	Ohio St.	24	vs	3	Michigan St.	28	162	42.7%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 42.7%
Most difficult game left: December 7, vs Michigan State Spartans, 42.7%

Northern Illinois Huskies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2013	0.643	40	0.237	125	20.8	28	16.6	60	180.7	11

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2013/08/31	28	Northern Ill.	30	at	68	Iowa	27	198	75.2%
2013/09/14	48	Northern Ill.	45	at	123	Idaho	35	200	94.9%
2013/09/28	68	Northern Ill.	55	at	88	Purdue	24	175	55.6%
2013/10/05	54	Northern Ill.	38	at	95	Kent St.	24	187	74.5%
2013/10/12	117	Akron	20	at	52	Northern Ill.	27	202	94.9%
2013/10/19	56	Northern Ill.	38	at	115	Central Michigan	17	170	82.5%
2013/10/26	117	Eastern Michigan	20	at	52	Northern Ill.	59	179	95.6%
2013/11/02	51	Northern Ill.	63	at	125	Massachusetts	19	163	96.7%
2013/11/13	65	Ball St.	27	at	56	Northern Ill.	48	181	62.2%
2013/11/20	45	Northern Ill.	35	at	48	Toledo	17	173	50.9%
2013/11/26	117	Western Michigan	14	at	45	Northern Ill.	33	164	93.8%
2013/12/06	20	Bowling Green	29	vs	40	Northern Ill.	26	168	33.8%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 33.8%
Most difficult game left: December 6, vs Bowling Green Falcons, 33.8%

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2013-12-01

Week 15: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA

Odds as of games through 2013-12-01

Legitimate Title Contenders

Florida State Seminoles
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2013	0.931	2	0.542	28	30.9	1	7.6	3	165.4	83

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2013/09/02	4	Florida St.	41	at	48	Pittsburgh	13	140	21.5%
2013/09/14	73	Nevada	7	at	2	Florida St.	62	154	87.7%
2013/09/28	1	Florida St.	48	at	91	Boston College	34	163	94.8%
2013/10/05	40	Maryland	0	at	5	Florida St.	63	170	94.2%
2013/10/19	2	Florida St.	51	at	9	Clemson	14	188	52.7%
2013/10/26	57	North Carolina St.	17	at	2	Florida St.	49	169	89.5%
2013/11/02	40	Miami-FL	14	at	2	Florida St.	41	150	83.6%
2013/11/09	2	Florida St.	59	at	82	Wake Forest	3	173	94.5%
2013/11/16	60	Syracuse	3	at	2	Florida St.	59	146	92.7%
2013/11/23	120	Idaho	14	at	2	Florida St.	80	190	99.4%
2013/11/30	2	Florida St.	37	at	24	Florida	7	137	87.2%
2013/12/07	56	Duke	17	vs	2	Florida St.	49	166	94.7%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 94.7%
Most difficult game left: December 7, vs Duke Blue Devils, 94.7%

Absolute Phonies

Northern Illinois Huskies
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2013	0.661	37	0.435	118	19.6	31	13.7	43	166.8	66

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2013/08/31	46	Northern Ill.	30	at	69	Iowa	27	198	65.2%
2013/09/14	52	Northern Ill.	45	at	123	Idaho	35	200	95.7%
2013/09/28	52	Northern Ill.	55	at	82	Purdue	24	175	69.3%
2013/10/05	49	Northern Ill.	38	at	87	Kent St.	24	187	74.7%
2013/10/12	117	Akron	20	at	45	Northern Ill.	27	202	88.2%
2013/10/19	46	Northern Ill.	38	at	114	Central Michigan	17	170	91.3%
2013/10/26	118	Eastern Michigan	20	at	48	Northern Ill.	59	179	93.3%
2013/11/02	49	Northern Ill.	63	at	124	Massachusetts	19	163	97.4%
2013/11/13	63	Ball St.	27	at	48	Northern Ill.	48	181	62.5%
2013/11/20	36	Northern Ill.	35	at	66	Toledo	17	173	62.6%
2013/11/26	115	Western Michigan	14	at	36	Northern Ill.	33	164	91.4%
2013/12/06	40	Bowling Green	21	vs	37	Northern Ill.	31	167	53.4%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 53.4%
Most difficult game left: December 6, vs Bowling Green Falcons, 53.4%

What are YOU doing here??

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year	WinPct		SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
2013	0.822	6	0.525	58	26.2	6	12.0	22	160.5	118

Date	Away Team				Home Team			Plays	Odds
2013/08/31	111	Buffalo	20	at	17	Ohio St.	40	163	91.9%
2013/09/07	51	SDSU	7	at	16	Ohio St.	42	164	65.0%
2013/09/14	15	Ohio St.	52	at	68	California	34	206	78.9%
2013/09/28	8	Wisconsin	24	at	11	Ohio St.	31	159	53.6%
2013/10/05	14	Ohio St.	40	at	33	Northwestern	30	172	61.9%
2013/10/19	23	Iowa	24	at	15	Ohio St.	34	156	53.4%
2013/10/26	31	Penn State	14	at	15	Ohio St.	63	177	57.5%
2013/11/02	10	Ohio St.	56	at	94	Purdue	0	159	90.0%
2013/11/16	6	Ohio St.	60	at	74	Illinois	35	197	83.6%
2013/11/23	64	Indiana	14	at	8	Ohio St.	42	169	87.3%
2013/11/30	6	Ohio St.	42	at	27	Michigan	41	166	67.9%
2013/12/07	6	Ohio St.	24	vs	5	Michigan St.	28	163	47.8%

Odds of finishing undefeated: 47.8%
Most difficult game left: December 7, vs Michigan State Spartans, 47.8%

One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2013-12-01