| Rank | +/- | Team | WinPct | SoS | Adjusted | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Off. | Def. | Pace | |||||||||
| 1 | -- | Alabama | 0.974 | 0.670 | 14 | 29.0 | 3 | 7.4 | 1 | 151.6 | 121 |
| 2 | +2 | Oregon | 0.935 | 0.585 | 35 | 32.3 | 1 | 11.8 | 13 | 177.5 | 17 |
| 3 | +3 | Wisconsin | 0.923 | 0.363 | 102 | 23.1 | 15 | 9.1 | 5 | 153.7 | 120 |
| 4 | +1 | Florida St. | 0.913 | 0.587 | 34 | 25.9 | 8 | 10.7 | 9 | 156.8 | 115 |
| 5 | +3 | Stanford | 0.909 | 0.650 | 18 | 23.4 | 14 | 9.8 | 6 | 159.1 | 102 |
| 6 | -3 | Oklahoma | 0.895 | 0.574 | 40 | 19.2 | 40 | 8.6 | 3 | 171.5 | 40 |
| 7 | +2 | Texas A&M | 0.892 | 0.640 | 21 | 29.4 | 2 | 13.3 | 22 | 183.6 | 8 |
| 8 | +6 | Michigan | 0.882 | 0.558 | 46 | 27.8 | 5 | 13.0 | 21 | 156.5 | 117 |
| 9 | -7 | Notre Dame | 0.881 | 0.683 | 12 | 21.9 | 25 | 10.3 | 8 | 164.9 | 66 |
| 10 | -3 | Florida | 0.875 | 0.671 | 13 | 17.7 | 52 | 8.5 | 2 | 160.9 | 95 |
| 11 | +1 | LSU | 0.864 | 0.591 | 32 | 24.0 | 13 | 12.0 | 14 | 161.4 | 93 |
| 12 | +4 | Georgia | 0.846 | 0.735 | 5 | 27.0 | 7 | 14.2 | 31 | 163.9 | 74 |
| 13 | -3 | South Carolina | 0.841 | 0.735 | 4 | 21.8 | 26 | 11.6 | 12 | 158.4 | 109 |
| 14 | +9 | Ohio St. | 0.838 | 0.430 | 87 | 24.6 | 10 | 13.3 | 24 | 163.2 | 78 |
| 15 | -- | Miami-FL | 0.835 | 0.434 | 82 | 22.2 | 24 | 12.1 | 15 | 155.9 | 118 |
| 16 | NA | UCF | 0.826 | 0.204 | 122 | 20.2 | 34 | 11.3 | 10 | 153.9 | 119 |
| 17 | -4 | Kansas St. | 0.822 | 0.604 | 30 | 27.3 | 6 | 15.3 | 42 | 157.9 | 110 |
| 18 | -7 | Oklahoma St. | 0.817 | 0.553 | 48 | 24.5 | 11 | 14.0 | 28 | 184.4 | 5 |
| 19 | -1 | Clemson | 0.816 | 0.710 | 9 | 24.9 | 9 | 14.2 | 30 | 178.9 | 13 |
| 20 | +5 | Baylor | 0.802 | 0.488 | 68 | 29.0 | 4 | 17.1 | 66 | 186.2 | 3 |
| 21 | +3 | Penn State | 0.793 | 0.404 | 91 | 16.9 | 61 | 10.2 | 7 | 169.4 | 47 |
| 22 | NA | Michigan St. | 0.783 | 0.480 | 69 | 14.5 | 89 | 9.0 | 4 | 162.5 | 88 |
| 23 | NA | Nebraska | 0.777 | 0.508 | 57 | 24.4 | 12 | 15.2 | 40 | 170.0 | 46 |
| 24 | -2 | Washington | 0.762 | 0.632 | 23 | 19.5 | 36 | 12.6 | 18 | 168.8 | 49 |
| 25 | -6 | Oregon St. | 0.755 | 0.567 | 43 | 20.6 | 32 | 13.5 | 25 | 162.0 | 90 |
Rankings through games of 2013-09-08
New entries: UCF, Michigan St., Nebraska.
Dropped out: Cincinnati, Texas, USC.
The hunt is on.
At the end of last year Alabama was the only team above 0.900 in expected winning percentage, but two weeks into this season we see four other teams creeping above that bar. Oregon took the largest leap thanks to their 59-10 drubbing of a hapless UVa squad. The main beneficiary of the game wasn't the 59 points Oregon hung on the Hoos in 186 plays (31.7 PPH), but the stingy 5.4 PPH their defense allowed. If the Ducks want to pull even with Alabama in EWP but only focusing on one side of the ball, they have two routes:
- An unchanged 32.3 PPH on offense and 8.4 PPH on defense (a -3.4 PPH adjustment); or
- A 45.3 PPH rating on offense (+12.0 PPH) and an unchanged defense.
Wisconsin is a bit of an anomaly now, since TFG only has one game's worth of data to go on: their 45-0 victory over 124th-ranked UMass. Their 48-0 win over Tennessee Tech doesn't count since these rankings only include all-FBS games. We'll have a better sense of UW after their game against ASU this weekend. Florida State also has only one game under their belt (against #56 Pittsburgh), much like Stanford and their whipping boy, #60 San Jose State.
At this point it's still too early to get a good statistical read on the teams. That should start clearing up soon, though, with several big games coming up this weekend, including the one everyone will be watching: #1 Alabama at #7 Texas A&M. Home field advantage still matters a lot this early in the year, so look for the Aggies to get a boost from that. Short of another SEC and/or BCS Champsionship game, this should be the biggest challenge for the Crimson Tide this year.
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