Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Week 12: Undefeated ... but for how long? — TFG


Odds as of games through 2014-11-09
Legitimate Title Contenders

Marshall Thundering Herd
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.773 21 0.234 127 23.4 13 14.8 46 174.9 34
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  53 Marshall 42 at 124 Miami-OH 27 186 97.3%
2014/09/13 104 Ohio 14 at  73 Marshall 44 178 84.7%
2014/09/20  59 Marshall 48 at 116 Akron 17 189 87.6%
2014/10/04  39 Marshall 56 at  83 Old Dominion 14 167 70.0%
2014/10/11  84 Middle Tenn. 24 at  29 Marshall 49 191 88.2%
2014/10/18  31 Marshall 45 at 101 FIU 13 167 86.1%
2014/10/25 101 FL-Atlantic 16 at  22 Marshall 35 176 95.2%
2014/11/08  23 Marshall 63 at 114 Southern Miss. 17 159 92.3%
2014/11/15  64 Rice 26 at  21 Marshall 34 170 81.5%
2014/11/22  21 Marshall 40 at  93 UAB 27 173 88.2%
2014/11/28  87 Western Kentucky 28 at  21 Marshall 41 176 87.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 62.8%
Most difficult game left: November 15, vs Rice Owls, 81.5%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.878 7 0.579 46 27.5 6 13.1 20 169.0 68
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30   1 Florida St. 37 vs  10 Oklahoma St. 31 174 83.8%
2014/09/20  28 Clemson 17 at   1 Florida St. 23 170 93.6%
2014/09/27   2 Florida St. 56 at  48 North Carolina St. 41 191 89.7%
2014/10/04  97 Wake Forest 3 at   3 Florida St. 43 163 98.5%
2014/10/11   3 Florida St. 38 at  64 Syracuse 20 162 91.4%
2014/10/18  15 Notre Dame 27 at   3 Florida St. 31 172 77.2%
2014/10/30   4 Florida St. 42 at  11 Louisville 31 177 47.7%
2014/11/08  63 Virginia 20 at   5 Florida St. 34 169 92.1%
2014/11/15   7 Florida St. 33 at  24 Miami-FL 28 164 65.1%
2014/11/22  56 Boston College 25 at   7 Florida St. 36 163 85.3%
2014/11/29  27 Florida 26 at   7 Florida St. 33 168 71.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 39.6%
Most difficult game left: November 15, at Miami Hurricanes, 65.1%


Absolute Phonies

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.865 10 0.614 30 21.8 19 10.8 6 177.8 26
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30 120 Southern Miss. 0 at  29 Mississippi St. 49 183 97.0%
2014/09/06 104 UAB 34 at  16 Mississippi St. 47 199 97.2%
2014/09/13  21 Mississippi St. 35 at  62 South Alabama 3 178 71.1%
2014/09/20  11 Mississippi St. 34 at   3 LSU 29 176 26.1%
2014/10/04  12 Texas A&M 31 at   9 Mississippi St. 48 199 63.7%
2014/10/11   2 Auburn 23 at  10 Mississippi St. 38 188 42.4%
2014/10/25   5 Mississippi St. 45 at  68 Kentucky 31 188 86.6%
2014/11/01  27 Arkansas 10 at   8 Mississippi St. 17 168 77.9%
2014/11/15  10 Mississippi St. 24 at   1 Alabama 30 168 22.5%
2014/11/22  98 Vanderbilt 20 at  10 Mississippi St. 33 167 94.0%
2014/11/29  10 Mississippi St. 25 at   2 Mississippi 27 172 34.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-13.5
Most difficult game left: November 15, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 22.5%


One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2014-11-09


Oregon Ducks
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.859 12 0.585 43 28.6 2 14.5 42 174.9 35
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06   4 Michigan St. 27 at   6 Oregon 46 184 56.8%
2014/09/13 105 Wyoming 14 at   5 Oregon 48 161 98.6%
2014/09/20   7 Oregon 38 at  77 Washington St. 31 175 90.4%
2014/10/02  41 Arizona 31 at  13 Oregon 24 187 85.3%
2014/10/11  18 Oregon 42 at  23 UCLA 30 186 47.8%
2014/10/18  26 Washington 20 at  18 Oregon 45 181 71.5%
2014/10/24  15 Oregon 59 vs  80 California 41 205 90.2%
2014/11/01  19 Stanford 16 at  20 Oregon 45 172 51.8%
2014/11/08  14 Oregon 51 at  40 Utah 27 173 73.3%
2014/11/22  94 Colorado 26 at  12 Oregon 44 176 93.0%
2014/11/29  12 Oregon 41 at  79 Oregon St. 26 172 90.8%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 84.4%
Most difficult game left: November 29, at Oregon State Beavers, 90.8%


TCU Horned Frogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.888 4 0.612 32 25.4 7 11.7 11 181.9 12
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/13  61 Minnesota 7 at  42 TCU 30 170 76.0%
2014/09/27  25 TCU 56 at 120 SMU 0 187 96.0%
2014/10/04   8 Oklahoma 33 at   7 TCU 37 191 60.0%
2014/10/11   6 TCU 58 at   5 Baylor 61 242 37.5%
2014/10/18  27 Oklahoma St. 9 at   8 TCU 42 176 81.8%
2014/10/25  77 Texas Tech 27 at   6 TCU 82 190 95.7%
2014/11/01   7 TCU 31 at  34 West Virginia 30 186 76.5%
2014/11/08  10 Kansas St. 20 at  11 TCU 41 171 53.9%
2014/11/15   4 TCU 37 at 110 Kansas 19 175 96.4%
2014/11/27   4 TCU 33 at  43 Texas 23 176 83.7%
2014/12/06  90 Iowa St. 25 at   4 TCU 42 183 94.2%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 76.0%
Most difficult game left: November 27, at Texas Longhorns, 83.7%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.877 8 0.532 57 28.5 3 13.6 27 170.7 57
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  11 Ohio St. 34 at  46 Navy 17 143 76.4%
2014/09/06  53 Virginia Tech 35 at  11 Ohio St. 21 179 89.4%
2014/09/13  99 Kent St. 0 at  26 Ohio St. 66 175 94.9%
2014/09/27  55 Cincinnati 28 at  16 Ohio St. 50 181 88.7%
2014/10/04  17 Ohio St. 52 at  54 Maryland 24 168 74.8%
2014/10/18  61 Rutgers 17 at  14 Ohio St. 56 160 89.3%
2014/10/25   9 Ohio St. 31 at  43 Penn State 24 189 72.9%
2014/11/01  81 Illinois 14 at   9 Ohio St. 55 171 92.3%
2014/11/08   8 Ohio St. 49 at  13 Michigan St. 37 176 48.4%
2014/11/15   8 Ohio St. 35 at  39 Minnesota 27 164 77.1%
2014/11/22  85 Indiana 25 at   8 Ohio St. 42 172 93.0%
2014/11/29  53 Michigan 23 at   8 Ohio St. 34 162 83.9%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 60.2%
Most difficult game left: November 15, at Minnesota Golden Gophers, 77.1%


Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.948 1 0.660 13 25.2 8 8.5 2 158.8 116
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  83 West Virginia 23 vs   2 Alabama 33 178 97.0%
2014/09/06  99 FL-Atlantic 0 at   2 Alabama 41 133 99.0%
2014/09/13 123 Southern Miss. 12 at   1 Alabama 52 153 99.9%
2014/09/20  20 Florida 21 at   2 Alabama 42 170 88.6%
2014/10/04   1 Alabama 17 at   6 Mississippi 23 167 62.8%
2014/10/11   1 Alabama 14 at  28 Arkansas 13 158 81.4%
2014/10/18  16 Texas A&M 0 at   1 Alabama 59 160 83.0%
2014/10/25   1 Alabama 34 at  48 Tennessee 20 169 90.4%
2014/11/08   1 Alabama 20 at   4 LSU 13 187 64.9%
2014/11/15  10 Mississippi St. 24 at   1 Alabama 30 168 77.5%
2014/11/29   5 Auburn 30 at   1 Alabama 31 163 69.8%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 54.1%
Most difficult game left: November 29, vs Auburn Tigers, 69.8%


Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.886 6 0.504 63 27.7 5 12.8 18 190.9 1
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/31  82 SMU 0 at   7 Baylor 45 192 90.3%
2014/09/12   3 Baylor 63 at  79 Buffalo 21 180 91.8%
2014/09/27   5 Baylor 49 at  60 Iowa St. 28 206 84.9%
2014/10/04  10 Baylor 28 at  25 Texas 7 184 59.8%
2014/10/11   6 TCU 58 at   5 Baylor 61 242 62.5%
2014/10/18   7 Baylor 27 at  54 West Virginia 41 209 80.5%
2014/11/01 119 Kansas 14 at  10 Baylor 60 172 97.7%
2014/11/08  15 Baylor 48 at   6 Oklahoma 14 185 39.3%
2014/11/22  58 Oklahoma St. 27 at   6 Baylor 41 184 88.2%
2014/11/29   6 Baylor 47 vs  84 Texas Tech 28 188 93.6%
2014/12/06  16 Kansas St. 31 at   6 Baylor 35 173 61.2%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 50.5%
Most difficult game left: December 6, vs Kansas State Wildcats, 61.2%


Arizona State Sun Devils
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.778 20 0.609 35 23.1 15 14.4 39 175.4 32
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06  22 Arizona St. 58 at 114 New Mexico 23 168 92.6%
2014/09/13  22 Arizona St. 38 at 113 Colorado 24 181 92.2%
2014/09/25  30 UCLA 62 at  32 Arizona St. 27 191 58.5%
2014/10/04  45 Arizona St. 38 at  23 USC 34 196 22.0%
2014/10/18   9 Stanford 10 at  40 Arizona St. 26 166 30.5%
2014/10/25  26 Arizona St. 24 at  32 Washington 10 168 41.5%
2014/11/01  37 Utah 16 at  23 Arizona St. 19 183 64.5%
2014/11/08  19 Notre Dame 31 at  28 Arizona St. 55 181 42.8%
2014/11/15  20 Arizona St. 35 at  79 Oregon St. 26 172 82.4%
2014/11/22  76 Washington St. 28 at  20 Arizona St. 39 178 84.1%
2014/11/28  20 Arizona St. 33 at  34 Arizona 29 179 64.5%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 44.7%
Most difficult game left: November 28, at Arizona Wildcats, 64.5%


Duke Blue Devils
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.721 29 0.488 67 18.9 36 13.2 23 178.7 21
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/09/06  51 Duke 34 at 112 Troy 17 186 77.1%
2014/09/13 102 Kansas 3 at  54 Duke 41 175 89.1%
2014/09/20  95 Tulane 13 at  35 Duke 47 193 92.8%
2014/09/27  31 Duke 10 at  47 Miami-FL 22 185 54.7%
2014/10/11  40 Duke 31 at  31 Georgia Tech 25 168 34.3%
2014/10/18  52 Virginia 13 at  33 Duke 20 172 76.6%
2014/11/01  26 Duke 51 at  66 Pittsburgh 48 175 71.6%
2014/11/08  37 Duke 27 at  57 Syracuse 10 165 59.9%
2014/11/15  49 Virginia Tech 23 at  29 Duke 27 174 67.9%
2014/11/20  57 North Carolina 30 at  29 Duke 35 180 71.1%
2014/11/29 111 Wake Forest 20 at  29 Duke 31 172 91.3%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 44.1%
Most difficult game left: November 15, vs Virginia Tech Hokies, 67.9%


Nebraska Cornhuskers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2014 0.825 17 0.508 62 22.3 18 12.5 15 173.9 44
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2014/08/30  68 FL-Atlantic 7 at  44 Nebraska 55 180 67.2%
2014/09/13  27 Nebraska 55 at  84 Fresno St. 19 192 75.2%
2014/09/20  54 Miami-FL 31 at  21 Nebraska 41 156 84.5%
2014/09/27  77 Illinois 14 at  20 Nebraska 45 183 91.2%
2014/10/04  19 Nebraska 22 at  22 Michigan St. 27 191 41.1%
2014/10/18  17 Nebraska 38 at  48 Northwestern 17 179 64.6%
2014/10/25  65 Rutgers 24 at  14 Nebraska 42 153 90.2%
2014/11/01  84 Purdue 14 at  15 Nebraska 35 176 91.7%
2014/11/15  17 Nebraska 27 at   9 Wisconsin 29 164 37.2%
2014/11/22  39 Minnesota 25 at  17 Nebraska 31 165 72.7%
2014/11/28  17 Nebraska 31 at  50 Iowa 24 169 77.0%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 20.8%
Most difficult game left: November 15, at Wisconsin Badgers, 37.2%


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