Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Week 7: Undefeated ... but for how long? — TFG

Odds as of games through 2015-10-11

Legitimate Title Contenders

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.891 4 0.696 5 22.4 16 10.2 6 174.2 48
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  85 Appalachian St. 10 at   6 Clemson 41 184 95.9%
2015/09/17   5 Clemson 20 at  30 Louisville 17 161 64.6%
2015/10/03  23 Notre Dame 22 at   6 Clemson 24 162 80.0%
2015/10/10  28 Georgia Tech 24 at   7 Clemson 43 158 78.7%
2015/10/17  64 Boston College 15 at   4 Clemson 27 165 92.6%
2015/10/24   4 Clemson 31 at  57 Miami-FL 26 170 77.2%
2015/10/31   4 Clemson 31 at  60 North Carolina St. 25 169 79.0%
2015/11/07  12 Florida St. 26 at   4 Clemson 29 169 67.0%
2015/11/14   4 Clemson 36 at  81 Syracuse 23 171 92.2%
2015/11/21  94 Wake Forest 17 at   4 Clemson 31 171 95.5%
2015/11/28   4 Clemson 33 at  69 South Carolina 22 166 90.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 30.1%
Most difficult game left: November 7, vs Florida State Seminoles, 67.0%


Toledo Rockets
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.689 41 0.336 113 16.6 65 12.3 22 171.7 62
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  72 Toledo 16 vs  11 Arkansas 12 169 12.1%
2015/09/19  93 Iowa St. 23 at  60 Toledo 30 188 81.6%
2015/09/26  89 Arkansas St. 7 at  66 Toledo 37 186 75.7%
2015/10/03  55 Toledo 24 at  79 Ball St. 10 163 60.0%
2015/10/10 114 Kent St. 7 at  46 Toledo 38 177 93.6%
2015/10/17 120 Eastern Michigan 21 at  41 Toledo 43 171 96.8%
2015/10/24  41 Toledo 32 at 103 Massachusetts 24 177 81.0%
2015/11/03  72 Northern Ill. 25 at  41 Toledo 31 176 76.4%
2015/11/10  41 Toledo 28 at  79 Central Michigan 23 166 75.3%
2015/11/17  41 Toledo 31 at  70 Bowling Green 27 178 71.9%
2015/11/27  83 Western Michigan 24 at  41 Toledo 31 168 79.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 25.9%
Most difficult game left: November 17, at Bowling Green Falcons, 71.9%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Florida Gators
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.877 7 0.551 49 20.0 36 9.5 4 161.5 109
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/05 125 New Mexico St. 13 at  27 Florida 61 153 97.4%
2015/09/12  54 East Carolina 24 at  24 Florida 31 178 83.1%
2015/09/19  26 Florida 14 at  66 Kentucky 9 150 70.8%
2015/09/26  36 Tennessee 27 at  26 Florida 28 170 68.9%
2015/10/03  17 Mississippi 10 at  22 Florida 38 163 51.1%
2015/10/10  10 Florida 21 at  42 Missouri 3 173 64.1%
2015/10/17   7 Florida 27 at  20 LSU 26 160 54.8%
2015/10/31   7 Florida 29 vs  18 Georgia 27 162 64.9%
2015/11/07  82 Vanderbilt 16 at   7 Florida 27 165 93.8%
2015/11/14   7 Florida 29 at  69 South Carolina 21 160 87.1%
2015/11/21 106 FL-Atlantic 18 at   7 Florida 33 168 96.3%
2015/11/28  12 Florida St. 25 at   7 Florida 26 162 59.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 16.7%
Most difficult game left: October 17, at LSU Tigers, 54.8%


Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.898 3 0.406 96 27.2 1 12.0 18 186.4 6
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04   7 Baylor 56 at 127 SMU 21 176 98.0%
2015/09/26  91 Rice 17 at   8 Baylor 70 179 95.5%
2015/10/03  39 Texas Tech 35 vs   5 Baylor 63 200 81.1%
2015/10/10   6 Baylor 66 at 121 Kansas 7 184 97.5%
2015/10/17  21 West Virginia 27 at   3 Baylor 38 185 81.0%
2015/10/24  76 Iowa St. 24 at   3 Baylor 43 181 95.8%
2015/11/05   3 Baylor 35 at  19 Kansas St. 32 175 65.8%
2015/11/14  14 Oklahoma 30 at   3 Baylor 36 179 71.6%
2015/11/21   3 Baylor 38 at  29 Oklahoma St. 30 184 75.0%
2015/11/27   3 Baylor 38 at  10 TCU 34 186 64.2%
2015/12/05  68 Texas 24 at   3 Baylor 38 177 90.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 16.0%
Most difficult game left: November 27, at TCU Horned Frogs, 64.2%


Temple Owls
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.763 24 0.294 120 17.3 56 11.1 9 161.5 109
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/05  44 Penn State 10 at  80 Temple 27 147 42.1%
2015/09/12  53 Temple 34 at  41 Cincinnati 26 168 28.5%
2015/09/19  46 Temple 25 at 126 Massachusetts 23 203 93.7%
2015/10/02  52 Temple 37 at  NA Charlotte 3 164 96.5%
2015/10/10 115 Tulane 10 at  41 Temple 49 150 95.1%
2015/10/17 109 UCF 18 at  24 Temple 32 166 95.6%
2015/10/22  24 Temple 29 at  56 East Carolina 27 172 56.9%
2015/10/31  15 Notre Dame 26 at  24 Temple 27 164 57.1%
2015/11/06  24 Temple 30 at  95 SMU 21 162 87.6%
2015/11/14  24 Temple 27 at  93 South Florida 19 160 86.8%
2015/11/21  58 Memphis 25 at  24 Temple 28 173 69.6%
2015/11/28  90 Connecticut 18 at  24 Temple 26 160 87.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 14.4%
Most difficult game left: October 22, at East Carolina Pirates, 56.9%


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.685 43 0.366 109 19.3 39 14.4 43 178.1 28
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  55 Houston 34 at  23 Louisville 31 193 16.5%
2015/09/26 101 Texas State 14 at  55 Houston 59 188 87.3%
2015/10/03  40 Houston 38 at  89 Tulsa 24 213 71.8%
2015/10/08 100 SMU 28 at  38 Houston 49 167 91.8%
2015/10/16  43 Houston 35 at 119 Tulane 22 173 91.6%
2015/10/24  43 Houston 33 at 109 UCF 24 174 84.4%
2015/10/31  82 Vanderbilt 20 at  43 Houston 29 173 86.4%
2015/11/07  59 Cincinnati 30 at  43 Houston 34 178 65.5%
2015/11/14  58 Memphis 29 at  43 Houston 32 181 65.1%
2015/11/21  43 Houston 29 at  90 Connecticut 21 169 82.7%
2015/11/27  37 Navy 30 at  43 Houston 29 168 47.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 11.2%
Most difficult game left: November 27, vs Navy Midshipmen, 47.6%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.880 6 0.471 74 25.7 3 12.2 21 169.2 73
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/07   3 Ohio St. 42 at  34 Virginia Tech 24 154 74.2%
2015/09/12  93 Hawaii 0 at   3 Ohio St. 38 171 97.2%
2015/09/19  76 Northern Ill. 13 at   2 Ohio St. 20 170 97.3%
2015/09/26  86 Western Michigan 12 at   2 Ohio St. 38 177 97.6%
2015/10/03   2 Ohio St. 34 at  69 Indiana 27 190 90.5%
2015/10/10  97 Maryland 28 at   4 Ohio St. 49 176 97.5%
2015/10/17  36 Penn State 22 at   6 Ohio St. 32 165 83.1%
2015/10/24   6 Ohio St. 35 at  80 Rutgers 23 167 88.1%
2015/11/07  66 Minnesota 21 at   6 Ohio St. 34 166 89.6%
2015/11/14   6 Ohio St. 34 at  63 Illinois 24 171 85.0%
2015/11/21  25 Michigan St. 27 at   6 Ohio St. 32 164 69.3%
2015/11/28   6 Ohio St. 26 at   1 Michigan 27 161 24.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-10.4
Most difficult game left: November 28, at Michigan Wolverines, 24.8%


Iowa Hawkeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.717 35 0.514 62 19.1 42 13.5 31 166.0 91
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  43 Iowa 31 at 100 Iowa St. 17 159 74.0%
2015/09/19  42 Pittsburgh 24 at  44 Iowa 27 150 60.4%
2015/09/26 112 North Texas 16 at  40 Iowa 62 185 94.1%
2015/10/03  29 Iowa 10 at   3 Wisconsin 6 157 11.8%
2015/10/10  59 Illinois 20 at  29 Iowa 29 178 76.7%
2015/10/17  35 Iowa 23 at  42 Northwestern 25 170 41.1%
2015/10/31  87 Maryland 22 at  35 Iowa 33 171 88.8%
2015/11/07  35 Iowa 31 at  65 Indiana 27 176 67.3%
2015/11/14  66 Minnesota 22 at  35 Iowa 28 165 75.1%
2015/11/21  97 Purdue 24 at  35 Iowa 35 169 87.4%
2015/11/27  35 Iowa 28 at  33 Nebraska 29 171 49.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-12.6
Most difficult game left: October 17, at Northwestern Wildcats, 41.1%


Long Shots

TCU Horned Frogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.831 10 0.584 37 25.3 5 13.9 34 186.9 4
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03   2 TCU 23 at  46 Minnesota 17 191 78.0%
2015/09/19 106 SMU 37 at   3 TCU 56 179 98.6%
2015/09/26  16 TCU 55 at  39 Texas Tech 52 220 62.2%
2015/10/03  62 Texas 7 at  19 TCU 50 192 85.5%
2015/10/10  15 TCU 52 at  13 Kansas St. 45 165 39.8%
2015/10/17  10 TCU 38 at  76 Iowa St. 28 182 82.4%
2015/10/29  21 West Virginia 29 at  10 TCU 36 185 70.4%
2015/11/07  10 TCU 35 at  29 Oklahoma St. 32 184 58.1%
2015/11/14 122 Kansas 19 at  10 TCU 42 178 98.3%
2015/11/21  10 TCU 34 at  14 Oklahoma 32 179 54.0%
2015/11/27   3 Baylor 38 at  10 TCU 34 186 35.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-15.6
Most difficult game left: November 27, vs Baylor Bears, 35.8%


Utah Utes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.829 13 0.602 29 23.0 11 12.7 25 170.6 67
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03  51 Michigan 17 at  40 Utah 24 165 70.3%
2015/09/11  38 Utah St. 14 at  44 Utah 24 157 61.2%
2015/09/19  28 Utah 45 at  95 Fresno St. 24 160 83.6%
2015/09/26  33 Utah 62 at  15 Oregon 20 177 22.8%
2015/10/10  53 California 24 at  17 Utah 30 177 82.0%
2015/10/17  32 Arizona St. 27 at  13 Utah 33 174 74.8%
2015/10/24  13 Utah 28 at   9 USC 31 172 32.7%
2015/10/31  88 Oregon St. 22 at  13 Utah 37 171 93.9%
2015/11/07  13 Utah 28 at  26 Washington 25 168 56.5%
2015/11/14  13 Utah 35 at  51 Arizona 30 179 70.6%
2015/11/21  22 UCLA 28 at  13 Utah 31 175 58.9%
2015/11/28  98 Colorado 23 at  13 Utah 38 172 93.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-19.9
Most difficult game left: October 24, at USC Trojans, 32.7%


Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.829 12 0.446 83 21.7 20 12.0 18 164.4 98
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/05  95 Texas State 16 at  13 Florida St. 59 174 94.6%
2015/09/12 115 South Florida 14 at   8 Florida St. 34 163 98.1%
2015/09/18  16 Florida St. 14 at  50 Boston College 0 139 68.7%
2015/10/03  10 Florida St. 24 at 101 Wake Forest 16 157 93.2%
2015/10/10  60 Miami-FL 24 at  16 Florida St. 29 165 84.2%
2015/10/17  28 Louisville 24 at  12 Florida St. 29 166 72.4%
2015/10/24  12 Florida St. 31 at  34 Georgia Tech 30 162 53.5%
2015/10/31  81 Syracuse 22 at  12 Florida St. 36 166 93.3%
2015/11/07  12 Florida St. 26 at   4 Clemson 29 169 33.0%
2015/11/14  60 North Carolina St. 24 at  12 Florida St. 32 164 81.6%
2015/11/28  12 Florida St. 25 at   7 Florida 26 162 40.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-25.4
Most difficult game left: November 7, at Clemson Tigers, 33.0%


Texas A&M Aggies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.798 16 0.595 32 25.1 6 15.0 49 173.8 52
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/05  28 Arizona St. 17 vs  32 Texas A&M 38 194 46.6%
2015/09/12  87 Ball St. 23 at  21 Texas A&M 56 169 93.2%
2015/09/19  79 Nevada 27 at  22 Texas A&M 44 180 92.0%
2015/09/26  22 Texas A&M 28 vs  35 Arkansas 21 141 61.7%
2015/10/03  18 Mississippi St. 17 at  21 Texas A&M 30 178 53.4%
2015/10/17   2 Alabama 34 at  16 Texas A&M 30 173 24.3%
2015/10/24  16 Texas A&M 31 at  17 Mississippi 33 174 38.1%
2015/10/31  69 South Carolina 25 at  16 Texas A&M 37 166 88.1%
2015/11/07  45 Auburn 29 at  16 Texas A&M 35 168 70.4%
2015/11/21  16 Texas A&M 32 at  82 Vanderbilt 22 171 87.5%
2015/11/28  16 Texas A&M 32 at  20 LSU 31 166 52.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-37.8
Most difficult game left: October 17, vs Alabama Crimson Tide, 24.3%


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.746 29 0.597 31 21.1 26 14.1 39 182.5 16
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03  61 Oklahoma St. 24 at  84 Central Michigan 13 165 48.5%
2015/09/19 103 UTSA 14 at  51 Oklahoma St. 69 179 90.6%
2015/09/26  29 Oklahoma St. 30 at  61 Texas 27 177 63.9%
2015/10/03  13 Kansas St. 34 at  34 Oklahoma St. 36 182 39.1%
2015/10/10  31 Oklahoma St. 33 at  18 West Virginia 26 215 28.7%
2015/10/24 122 Kansas 19 at  29 Oklahoma St. 38 176 97.9%
2015/10/31  29 Oklahoma St. 35 at  46 Texas Tech 37 183 47.2%
2015/11/07  10 TCU 35 at  29 Oklahoma St. 32 184 41.9%
2015/11/14  29 Oklahoma St. 35 at  76 Iowa St. 27 179 79.4%
2015/11/21   3 Baylor 38 at  29 Oklahoma St. 30 184 25.0%
2015/11/28  14 Oklahoma 32 at  29 Oklahoma St. 30 177 41.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-63.2
Most difficult game left: November 21, vs Baylor Bears, 25.0%


Absolute Phonies

Memphis Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.584 58 0.392 105 18.4 47 16.2 58 184.5 10
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  37 Memphis 55 at 109 Kansas 23 195 80.0%
2015/09/19  33 Memphis 44 at  78 Bowling Green 41 198 70.4%
2015/09/24  62 Cincinnati 46 at  45 Memphis 53 211 72.7%
2015/10/02  53 Memphis 24 at 108 South Florida 17 172 80.9%
2015/10/17  17 Mississippi 32 at  58 Memphis 29 179 37.4%
2015/10/23  58 Memphis 35 at  85 Tulsa 32 190 61.2%
2015/10/31 119 Tulane 22 at  58 Memphis 38 176 95.0%
2015/11/07  37 Navy 31 at  58 Memphis 29 171 41.4%
2015/11/14  58 Memphis 29 at  43 Houston 32 181 34.9%
2015/11/21  58 Memphis 25 at  24 Temple 28 173 30.4%
2015/11/28  95 SMU 26 at  58 Memphis 34 173 78.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-133.2
Most difficult game left: November 21, at Temple Owls, 30.4%


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.780 20 0.486 68 22.5 13 14.0 36 159.8 119
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  12 LSU 21 at  19 Mississippi St. 19 174 40.1%
2015/09/19  18 Auburn 21 at  19 LSU 45 146 58.3%
2015/09/26   5 LSU 34 at  75 Syracuse 24 160 85.0%
2015/10/03 124 Eastern Michigan 22 at  14 LSU 44 147 98.5%
2015/10/10  62 South Carolina 24 at  20 LSU 45 157 82.5%
2015/10/17   7 Florida 27 at  20 LSU 26 160 45.2%
2015/10/24  52 Western Kentucky 28 at  20 LSU 35 163 78.0%
2015/11/07  20 LSU 25 at   2 Alabama 34 166 12.7%
2015/11/14  40 Arkansas 24 at  20 LSU 28 155 65.5%
2015/11/21  20 LSU 28 at  17 Mississippi 30 167 47.8%
2015/11/28  16 Texas A&M 32 at  20 LSU 31 166 47.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-150.8
Most difficult game left: November 7, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 12.7%


Michigan State Spartans
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.763 25 0.455 80 20.7 29 13.3 30 160.6 113
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04   5 Michigan St. 37 at  71 Western Michigan 24 170 84.8%
2015/09/12   4 Oregon 28 at   9 Michigan St. 31 176 57.9%
2015/09/19  68 Air Force 21 at  13 Michigan St. 35 148 91.5%
2015/09/26  79 Central Michigan 10 at  10 Michigan St. 30 144 93.6%
2015/10/03  92 Purdue 21 at  11 Michigan St. 24 153 95.2%
2015/10/10  19 Michigan St. 31 at  90 Rutgers 24 155 86.6%
2015/10/17  25 Michigan St. 20 at   1 Michigan 28 157 8.1%
2015/10/24  65 Indiana 25 at  25 Michigan St. 34 173 83.8%
2015/11/07  25 Michigan St. 29 at  33 Nebraska 27 168 50.5%
2015/11/14  87 Maryland 23 at  25 Michigan St. 33 169 88.0%
2015/11/21  25 Michigan St. 27 at   6 Ohio St. 32 164 30.7%
2015/11/28  36 Penn State 23 at  25 Michigan St. 26 161 56.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-190.1
Most difficult game left: October 17, at Michigan Wolverines, 8.1%


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