Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Week 8: Undefeated ... but for how long? — TFG

Odds as of games through 2015-10-18

Legitimate Title Contenders

Iowa Hawkeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.790 19 0.530 57 20.6 28 12.5 21 166.8 87
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  43 Iowa 31 at 100 Iowa St. 17 159 74.0%
2015/09/19  42 Pittsburgh 24 at  44 Iowa 27 150 60.4%
2015/09/26 112 North Texas 16 at  40 Iowa 62 185 94.1%
2015/10/03  29 Iowa 10 at   3 Wisconsin 6 157 11.8%
2015/10/10  59 Illinois 20 at  29 Iowa 29 178 76.7%
2015/10/17  35 Iowa 40 at  42 Northwestern 10 177 41.1%
2015/10/31  84 Maryland 22 at  19 Iowa 34 172 91.4%
2015/11/07  19 Iowa 34 at  72 Indiana 27 177 78.7%
2015/11/14  73 Minnesota 22 at  19 Iowa 31 165 85.6%
2015/11/21  96 Purdue 22 at  19 Iowa 35 169 91.0%
2015/11/27  19 Iowa 30 at  28 Nebraska 29 171 55.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 31.0%
Most difficult game left: November 27, at Nebraska Cornhuskers, 55.4%


Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.885 6 0.688 7 24.0 8 11.1 8 175.9 39
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  85 Appalachian St. 10 at   6 Clemson 41 184 95.9%
2015/09/17   5 Clemson 20 at  30 Louisville 17 161 64.6%
2015/10/03  23 Notre Dame 22 at   6 Clemson 24 162 80.0%
2015/10/10  28 Georgia Tech 24 at   7 Clemson 43 158 78.7%
2015/10/17  63 Boston College 17 at   4 Clemson 34 171 92.6%
2015/10/24   6 Clemson 32 at  47 Miami-FL 27 172 71.9%
2015/10/31   6 Clemson 32 at  57 North Carolina St. 26 169 78.6%
2015/11/07  10 Florida St. 27 at   6 Clemson 31 170 65.2%
2015/11/14   6 Clemson 37 at  85 Syracuse 24 173 92.1%
2015/11/21 100 Wake Forest 17 at   6 Clemson 33 171 96.4%
2015/11/28   6 Clemson 34 at  71 South Carolina 23 168 89.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 29.2%
Most difficult game left: November 7, vs Florida State Seminoles, 65.2%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.899 4 0.456 79 29.8 1 13.1 27 185.0 7
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04   7 Baylor 56 at 127 SMU 21 176 98.0%
2015/09/26  91 Rice 17 at   8 Baylor 70 179 95.5%
2015/10/03  39 Texas Tech 35 vs   5 Baylor 63 200 81.1%
2015/10/10   6 Baylor 66 at 121 Kansas 7 184 97.5%
2015/10/17  21 West Virginia 38 at   3 Baylor 62 199 81.0%
2015/10/24  81 Iowa St. 24 at   4 Baylor 45 179 95.9%
2015/11/05   4 Baylor 39 at  50 Kansas St. 29 174 82.6%
2015/11/14   7 Oklahoma 31 at   4 Baylor 37 178 62.5%
2015/11/21   4 Baylor 40 at  36 Oklahoma St. 30 184 78.6%
2015/11/27   4 Baylor 41 at  21 TCU 34 184 70.6%
2015/12/05  69 Texas 25 at   4 Baylor 40 176 90.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 24.7%
Most difficult game left: November 14, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 62.5%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.907 3 0.516 62 26.9 3 11.4 11 167.7 83
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/07   3 Ohio St. 42 at  34 Virginia Tech 24 154 74.2%
2015/09/12  93 Hawaii 0 at   3 Ohio St. 38 171 97.2%
2015/09/19  76 Northern Ill. 13 at   2 Ohio St. 20 170 97.3%
2015/09/26  86 Western Michigan 12 at   2 Ohio St. 38 177 97.6%
2015/10/03   2 Ohio St. 34 at  69 Indiana 27 190 90.5%
2015/10/10  97 Maryland 28 at   4 Ohio St. 49 176 97.5%
2015/10/17  36 Penn State 10 at   6 Ohio St. 38 147 83.1%
2015/10/24   3 Ohio St. 37 at  80 Rutgers 24 167 90.0%
2015/11/07  73 Minnesota 21 at   3 Ohio St. 36 165 93.9%
2015/11/14   3 Ohio St. 35 at  60 Illinois 23 171 86.8%
2015/11/21  13 Michigan St. 28 at   3 Ohio St. 32 165 68.4%
2015/11/28   3 Ohio St. 25 at   2 Michigan 27 162 41.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 20.9%
Most difficult game left: November 28, at Michigan Wolverines, 41.6%


Toledo Rockets
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.715 33 0.291 121 17.6 58 12.5 21 173.3 53
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  72 Toledo 16 vs  11 Arkansas 12 169 12.1%
2015/09/19  93 Iowa St. 23 at  60 Toledo 30 188 81.6%
2015/09/26  89 Arkansas St. 7 at  66 Toledo 37 186 75.7%
2015/10/03  55 Toledo 24 at  79 Ball St. 10 163 60.0%
2015/10/10 114 Kent St. 7 at  46 Toledo 38 177 93.6%
2015/10/17 120 Eastern Michigan 20 at  39 Toledo 63 177 97.0%
2015/10/24  33 Toledo 32 at 102 Massachusetts 23 176 84.4%
2015/11/03  68 Northern Ill. 26 at  33 Toledo 31 176 75.0%
2015/11/10  33 Toledo 28 at  65 Central Michigan 25 166 65.6%
2015/11/17  33 Toledo 32 at  59 Bowling Green 29 178 66.6%
2015/11/27  63 Western Michigan 27 at  33 Toledo 30 169 68.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 19.0%
Most difficult game left: November 10, at Central Michigan Chippewas, 65.6%


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.723 31 0.318 117 19.2 44 13.4 31 178.3 26
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  55 Houston 34 at  23 Louisville 31 193 16.5%
2015/09/26 101 Texas State 14 at  55 Houston 59 188 87.3%
2015/10/03  40 Houston 38 at  89 Tulsa 24 213 71.8%
2015/10/08 100 SMU 28 at  38 Houston 49 167 91.8%
2015/10/16  43 Houston 42 at 119 Tulane 7 174 91.6%
2015/10/24  31 Houston 33 at 104 UCF 23 173 85.7%
2015/10/31  88 Vanderbilt 19 at  31 Houston 29 174 90.2%
2015/11/07  58 Cincinnati 29 at  31 Houston 34 178 71.2%
2015/11/14  43 Memphis 29 at  31 Houston 31 181 59.8%
2015/11/21  31 Houston 30 at  92 Connecticut 21 170 86.2%
2015/11/27  39 Navy 27 at  31 Houston 29 168 52.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 15.0%
Most difficult game left: November 27, vs Navy Midshipmen, 52.9%


Utah Utes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.832 9 0.636 21 22.3 17 12.2 19 169.8 71
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03  51 Michigan 17 at  40 Utah 24 165 70.3%
2015/09/11  38 Utah St. 14 at  44 Utah 24 157 61.2%
2015/09/19  28 Utah 45 at  95 Fresno St. 24 160 83.6%
2015/09/26  33 Utah 62 at  15 Oregon 20 177 22.8%
2015/10/10  53 California 24 at  17 Utah 30 177 82.0%
2015/10/17  32 Arizona St. 18 at  13 Utah 34 170 74.8%
2015/10/24   9 Utah 28 at  11 USC 30 172 38.4%
2015/10/31  91 Oregon St. 22 at   9 Utah 38 171 94.9%
2015/11/07   9 Utah 27 at  34 Washington 23 167 62.5%
2015/11/14   9 Utah 34 at  56 Arizona 28 179 74.8%
2015/11/21  30 UCLA 29 at   9 Utah 32 175 64.1%
2015/11/28  93 Colorado 23 at   9 Utah 37 173 92.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 10.1%
Most difficult game left: October 24, at USC Trojans, 38.4%


Michigan State Spartans
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.818 13 0.563 49 22.7 15 12.9 24 162.8 106
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04   5 Michigan St. 37 at  71 Western Michigan 24 170 84.8%
2015/09/12   4 Oregon 28 at   9 Michigan St. 31 176 57.9%
2015/09/19  68 Air Force 21 at  13 Michigan St. 35 148 91.5%
2015/09/26  79 Central Michigan 10 at  10 Michigan St. 30 144 93.6%
2015/10/03  92 Purdue 21 at  11 Michigan St. 24 153 95.2%
2015/10/10  19 Michigan St. 31 at  90 Rutgers 24 155 86.6%
2015/10/17  25 Michigan St. 27 at   1 Michigan 23 159 8.1%
2015/10/24  72 Indiana 25 at  13 Michigan St. 38 175 89.7%
2015/11/07  13 Michigan St. 31 at  28 Nebraska 30 169 55.2%
2015/11/14  84 Maryland 22 at  13 Michigan St. 34 170 90.3%
2015/11/21  13 Michigan St. 28 at   3 Ohio St. 32 165 31.6%
2015/11/28  48 Penn State 22 at  13 Michigan St. 28 161 71.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 10.1%
Most difficult game left: November 21, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 31.6%


Long Shots

Temple Owls
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.720 32 0.276 124 16.9 66 11.9 13 161.9 109
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/05  44 Penn State 10 at  80 Temple 27 147 42.1%
2015/09/12  53 Temple 34 at  41 Cincinnati 26 168 28.5%
2015/09/19  46 Temple 25 at 126 Massachusetts 23 203 93.7%
2015/10/02  52 Temple 37 at  NA Charlotte 3 164 96.5%
2015/10/10 115 Tulane 10 at  41 Temple 49 150 95.1%
2015/10/17 109 UCF 16 at  24 Temple 30 159 95.6%
2015/10/22  32 Temple 28 at  54 East Carolina 26 171 50.6%
2015/10/31  14 Notre Dame 28 at  32 Temple 26 164 49.2%
2015/11/06  32 Temple 30 at  94 SMU 22 162 84.4%
2015/11/14  32 Temple 26 at  86 South Florida 20 161 80.3%
2015/11/21  43 Memphis 26 at  32 Temple 28 173 54.8%
2015/11/28  92 Connecticut 19 at  32 Temple 26 161 85.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-12.6
Most difficult game left: October 31, vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 49.2%


Florida State Seminoles
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.832 10 0.495 72 21.9 22 12.0 15 165.4 95
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/05  95 Texas State 16 at  13 Florida St. 59 174 94.6%
2015/09/12 115 South Florida 14 at   8 Florida St. 34 163 98.1%
2015/09/18  16 Florida St. 14 at  50 Boston College 0 139 68.7%
2015/10/03  10 Florida St. 24 at 101 Wake Forest 16 157 93.2%
2015/10/10  60 Miami-FL 24 at  16 Florida St. 29 165 84.2%
2015/10/17  28 Louisville 21 at  12 Florida St. 41 165 72.4%
2015/10/24  10 Florida St. 31 at  37 Georgia Tech 30 163 55.5%
2015/10/31  85 Syracuse 22 at  10 Florida St. 37 168 93.6%
2015/11/07  10 Florida St. 27 at   6 Clemson 31 170 34.8%
2015/11/14  57 North Carolina St. 24 at  10 Florida St. 32 164 82.4%
2015/11/28  10 Florida St. 25 at   8 Florida 27 163 47.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-14.3
Most difficult game left: November 7, at Clemson Tigers, 34.8%


Memphis Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.678 43 0.481 75 19.7 41 14.9 46 185.1 6
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  37 Memphis 55 at 109 Kansas 23 195 80.0%
2015/09/19  33 Memphis 44 at  78 Bowling Green 41 198 70.4%
2015/09/24  62 Cincinnati 46 at  45 Memphis 53 211 72.7%
2015/10/02  53 Memphis 24 at 108 South Florida 17 172 80.9%
2015/10/17  17 Mississippi 24 at  58 Memphis 37 199 37.4%
2015/10/23  43 Memphis 35 at  82 Tulsa 30 190 67.8%
2015/10/31 122 Tulane 20 at  43 Memphis 39 176 97.0%
2015/11/07  39 Navy 29 at  43 Memphis 31 171 52.2%
2015/11/14  43 Memphis 29 at  31 Houston 31 181 40.2%
2015/11/21  43 Memphis 26 at  32 Temple 28 173 45.2%
2015/11/28  94 SMU 25 at  43 Memphis 35 174 84.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-19.0
Most difficult game left: November 14, at Houston Cougars, 40.2%


TCU Horned Frogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.788 21 0.506 67 24.0 9 14.6 43 184.4 11
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03   2 TCU 23 at  46 Minnesota 17 191 78.0%
2015/09/19 106 SMU 37 at   3 TCU 56 179 98.6%
2015/09/26  16 TCU 55 at  39 Texas Tech 52 220 62.2%
2015/10/03  62 Texas 7 at  19 TCU 50 192 85.5%
2015/10/10  15 TCU 52 at  13 Kansas St. 45 165 39.8%
2015/10/17  10 TCU 45 at  76 Iowa St. 21 175 82.4%
2015/10/29  22 West Virginia 30 at  21 TCU 35 184 64.1%
2015/11/07  21 TCU 34 at  36 Oklahoma St. 32 183 56.0%
2015/11/14 120 Kansas 20 at  21 TCU 39 179 97.3%
2015/11/21  21 TCU 31 at   7 Oklahoma 33 178 36.7%
2015/11/27   4 Baylor 41 at  21 TCU 34 184 29.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-26.5
Most difficult game left: November 27, vs Baylor Bears, 29.4%


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.801 16 0.542 55 24.2 6 14.3 40 158.6 123
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  12 LSU 21 at  19 Mississippi St. 19 174 40.1%
2015/09/19  18 Auburn 21 at  19 LSU 45 146 58.3%
2015/09/26   5 LSU 34 at  75 Syracuse 24 160 85.0%
2015/10/03 124 Eastern Michigan 22 at  14 LSU 44 147 98.5%
2015/10/10  62 South Carolina 24 at  20 LSU 45 157 82.5%
2015/10/17   7 Florida 28 at  20 LSU 35 150 45.1%
2015/10/24  55 Western Kentucky 28 at  16 LSU 37 164 82.3%
2015/11/07  16 LSU 26 at   1 Alabama 34 165 15.1%
2015/11/14  42 Arkansas 24 at  16 LSU 29 154 69.6%
2015/11/21  16 LSU 31 at  24 Mississippi 28 167 55.9%
2015/11/28  23 Texas A&M 32 at  16 LSU 33 166 54.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-38.0
Most difficult game left: November 7, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 15.1%


Absolute Phonies

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.708 36 0.572 44 20.2 33 14.5 42 183.0 14
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03  61 Oklahoma St. 24 at  84 Central Michigan 13 165 48.5%
2015/09/19 103 UTSA 14 at  51 Oklahoma St. 69 179 90.6%
2015/09/26  29 Oklahoma St. 30 at  61 Texas 27 177 63.9%
2015/10/03  13 Kansas St. 34 at  34 Oklahoma St. 36 182 39.1%
2015/10/10  31 Oklahoma St. 33 at  18 West Virginia 26 215 28.7%
2015/10/24 120 Kansas 19 at  36 Oklahoma St. 36 178 97.0%
2015/10/31  36 Oklahoma St. 34 at  51 Texas Tech 36 186 48.8%
2015/11/07  21 TCU 34 at  36 Oklahoma St. 32 183 44.0%
2015/11/14  36 Oklahoma St. 34 at  81 Iowa St. 27 178 76.6%
2015/11/21   4 Baylor 40 at  36 Oklahoma St. 30 184 21.4%
2015/11/28   7 Oklahoma 33 at  36 Oklahoma St. 28 177 27.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-106.9
Most difficult game left: November 21, vs Baylor Bears, 21.4%


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