Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? — RBA

Odds as of games through 2015-11-01

Legitimate Title Contenders

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.858 2 0.535 47 21.8 15 9.6 6 169.2 50
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  96 Appalachian St. 10 at  15 Clemson 41 184 90.8%
2015/09/17  13 Clemson 20 at  26 Louisville 17 161 62.1%
2015/10/03  23 Notre Dame 22 at   8 Clemson 24 162 69.4%
2015/10/10  38 Georgia Tech 24 at  11 Clemson 43 158 63.4%
2015/10/17  65 Boston College 17 at   6 Clemson 34 171 77.0%
2015/10/24   7 Clemson 58 at  48 Miami-FL 0 179 76.5%
2015/10/31   2 Clemson 56 at  53 North Carolina St. 41 181 77.8%
2015/11/07  15 Florida St. 24 at   2 Clemson 34 167 67.9%
2015/11/14   2 Clemson 35 at  85 Syracuse 20 167 93.4%
2015/11/21 103 Wake Forest 10 at   2 Clemson 38 168 96.6%
2015/11/28   2 Clemson 38 at  55 South Carolina 24 164 86.0%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 52.7%
Most difficult game left: November 7, vs Florida State Seminoles, 67.9%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Toledo Rockets
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.670 38 0.447 110 17.0 55 12.5 27 169.6 44
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  66 Toledo 16 vs   7 Arkansas 12 169 13.9%
2015/09/19  85 Iowa St. 23 at  49 Toledo 30 188 59.8%
2015/09/26  89 Arkansas St. 7 at  50 Toledo 37 186 83.2%
2015/10/03  44 Toledo 24 at  90 Ball St. 10 163 75.4%
2015/10/10 115 Kent St. 7 at  42 Toledo 38 177 89.3%
2015/10/17 116 Eastern Michigan 20 at  39 Toledo 63 177 88.9%
2015/10/24  37 Toledo 51 at 108 Massachusetts 35 215 87.9%
2015/11/03  65 Northern Ill. 20 at  38 Toledo 31 168 68.1%
2015/11/10  38 Toledo 34 at  77 Central Michigan 24 169 75.4%
2015/11/17  38 Toledo 35 at  67 Bowling Green 27 169 70.2%
2015/11/27  69 Western Michigan 24 at  38 Toledo 34 169 70.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 37.4%
Most difficult game left: November 17, at Bowling Green Falcons, 70.2%


Iowa Hawkeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.749 19 0.526 56 18.7 47 11.4 16 164.0 108
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  40 Iowa 31 at  83 Iowa St. 17 159 74.0%
2015/09/19  55 Pittsburgh 24 at  42 Iowa 27 150 58.7%
2015/09/26  98 North Texas 16 at  46 Iowa 62 185 80.5%
2015/10/03  36 Iowa 10 at  13 Wisconsin 6 157 26.3%
2015/10/10  70 Illinois 20 at  28 Iowa 29 178 78.7%
2015/10/17  30 Iowa 40 at  52 Northwestern 10 177 43.0%
2015/10/31  84 Maryland 15 at  19 Iowa 31 155 82.8%
2015/11/07  19 Iowa 35 at  75 Indiana 24 168 81.3%
2015/11/14  72 Minnesota 20 at  19 Iowa 34 164 79.3%
2015/11/21 104 Purdue 20 at  19 Iowa 41 168 90.5%
2015/11/27  19 Iowa 27 at  40 Nebraska 24 166 60.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 35.5%
Most difficult game left: November 27, at Nebraska Cornhuskers, 60.9%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.829 4 0.528 53 24.4 3 10.3 8 161.6 118
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/07   7 Ohio St. 42 at  57 Virginia Tech 24 154 86.1%
2015/09/12  91 Hawaii 0 at   8 Ohio St. 38 171 94.5%
2015/09/19  74 Northern Ill. 13 at   3 Ohio St. 20 170 89.2%
2015/09/26  88 Western Michigan 12 at   4 Ohio St. 38 177 91.1%
2015/10/03   2 Ohio St. 34 at  72 Indiana 27 190 89.6%
2015/10/10  88 Maryland 28 at   3 Ohio St. 49 176 92.8%
2015/10/17  45 Penn State 10 at   5 Ohio St. 38 147 80.0%
2015/10/24   3 Ohio St. 49 at  72 Rutgers 7 149 87.1%
2015/11/07  72 Minnesota 17 at   4 Ohio St. 38 163 87.9%
2015/11/14   4 Ohio St. 35 at  71 Illinois 17 165 87.2%
2015/11/21  20 Michigan St. 24 at   4 Ohio St. 35 163 66.0%
2015/11/28   4 Ohio St. 34 at   5 Michigan 27 163 50.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 25.4%
Most difficult game left: November 28, at Michigan Wolverines, 50.3%


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.716 26 0.468 87 19.9 34 11.6 21 177.5 5
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  45 Houston 34 at  25 Louisville 31 193 37.0%
2015/09/26 101 Texas State 14 at  44 Houston 59 188 82.8%
2015/10/03  33 Houston 38 at  86 Tulsa 24 213 80.4%
2015/10/08 106 SMU 28 at  36 Houston 49 167 87.6%
2015/10/16  37 Houston 42 at 104 Tulane 7 174 87.7%
2015/10/24  35 Houston 59 at  94 UCF 10 167 82.2%
2015/10/31  74 Vanderbilt 0 at  26 Houston 34 164 78.5%
2015/11/07  62 Cincinnati 24 at  26 Houston 38 173 70.6%
2015/11/14  39 Memphis 27 at  26 Houston 31 174 58.2%
2015/11/21  26 Houston 31 at  95 Connecticut 20 171 87.7%
2015/11/27  45 Navy 27 at  26 Houston 38 168 63.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 23.0%
Most difficult game left: November 14, vs Memphis Tigers, 58.2%


Long Shots

TCU Horned Frogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.783 12 0.484 77 25.0 2 13.0 30 170.0 38
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03   4 TCU 23 at  42 Minnesota 17 191 82.3%
2015/09/19 106 SMU 37 at   5 TCU 56 179 98.2%
2015/09/26  12 TCU 55 at  33 Texas Tech 52 220 80.9%
2015/10/03  58 Texas 7 at  20 TCU 50 192 78.4%
2015/10/10  12 TCU 52 at  14 Kansas St. 45 165 58.5%
2015/10/17  13 TCU 45 at  72 Iowa St. 21 175 83.7%
2015/10/29  22 West Virginia 10 at  12 TCU 40 195 50.0%
2015/11/07  12 TCU 34 at  18 Oklahoma St. 31 173 53.0%
2015/11/14 117 Kansas 14 at  12 TCU 52 170 96.2%
2015/11/21  12 TCU 28 at  11 Oklahoma 34 171 46.7%
2015/11/27   3 Baylor 31 at  12 TCU 38 173 62.3%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 14.8%
Most difficult game left: November 21, at Oklahoma Sooners, 46.7%


Michigan State Spartans
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.742 20 0.541 32 21.7 16 13.1 32 166.3 80
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04   6 Michigan St. 37 at  96 Western Michigan 24 170 95.2%
2015/09/12   9 Oregon 28 at  14 Michigan St. 31 176 56.4%
2015/09/19  68 Air Force 21 at  19 Michigan St. 35 148 84.7%
2015/09/26  91 Central Michigan 10 at  17 Michigan St. 30 144 91.1%
2015/10/03  97 Purdue 21 at  15 Michigan St. 24 153 91.6%
2015/10/10  21 Michigan St. 31 at  78 Rutgers 24 155 86.4%
2015/10/17  22 Michigan St. 27 at   4 Michigan 23 159 43.9%
2015/10/24  76 Indiana 26 at  20 Michigan St. 52 184 80.7%
2015/11/07  20 Michigan St. 31 at  40 Nebraska 28 167 60.3%
2015/11/14  84 Maryland 17 at  20 Michigan St. 41 166 83.8%
2015/11/21  20 Michigan St. 24 at   4 Ohio St. 35 163 34.0%
2015/11/28  63 Penn State 20 at  20 Michigan St. 34 165 72.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 12.5%
Most difficult game left: November 21, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 34.0%


Memphis Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.668 39 0.462 98 20.4 29 14.6 45 170.5 36
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  39 Memphis 55 at  97 Kansas 23 195 80.1%
2015/09/19  39 Memphis 44 at  76 Bowling Green 41 198 79.7%
2015/09/24  64 Cincinnati 46 at  48 Memphis 53 211 63.0%
2015/10/02  51 Memphis 24 at 116 South Florida 17 172 84.4%
2015/10/17   9 Mississippi 24 at  50 Memphis 37 199 23.3%
2015/10/23  40 Memphis 66 at  86 Tulsa 42 219 71.2%
2015/10/31 100 Tulane 13 at  39 Memphis 41 177 88.4%
2015/11/07  45 Navy 27 at  39 Memphis 35 164 55.9%
2015/11/14  39 Memphis 27 at  26 Houston 31 174 41.8%
2015/11/21  39 Memphis 24 at  36 Temple 28 166 48.1%
2015/11/28 107 SMU 20 at  39 Memphis 45 169 88.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-10.0
Most difficult game left: November 14, at Houston Cougars, 41.8%


Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.834 3 0.551 17 29.0 1 13.2 33 177.7 4
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04  14 Baylor 56 at 127 SMU 21 176 98.0%
2015/09/26  79 Rice 17 at  13 Baylor 70 179 89.0%
2015/10/03  34 Texas Tech 35 vs   7 Baylor 63 200 66.7%
2015/10/10   5 Baylor 66 at 122 Kansas 7 184 96.0%
2015/10/17  19 West Virginia 38 at   2 Baylor 62 199 59.3%
2015/10/24  74 Iowa St. 27 at   2 Baylor 45 201 90.0%
2015/11/05   3 Baylor 45 at  27 Kansas St. 28 171 68.6%
2015/11/14  11 Oklahoma 34 at   3 Baylor 38 175 59.1%
2015/11/21   3 Baylor 41 at  18 Oklahoma St. 31 176 65.1%
2015/11/27   3 Baylor 31 at  12 TCU 38 173 37.7%
2015/12/05  57 Texas 20 at   3 Baylor 42 173 83.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-12.1
Most difficult game left: November 27, at TCU Horned Frogs, 37.7%


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.756 18 0.554 9 23.1 12 13.6 38 176.0 7
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03  40 Oklahoma St. 24 at  93 Central Michigan 13 165 84.7%
2015/09/19 105 UTSA 14 at  43 Oklahoma St. 69 179 78.9%
2015/09/26  25 Oklahoma St. 30 at  58 Texas 27 177 53.3%
2015/10/03   9 Kansas St. 34 at  30 Oklahoma St. 36 182 35.7%
2015/10/10  27 Oklahoma St. 33 at  20 West Virginia 26 215 34.4%
2015/10/24 116 Kansas 10 at  22 Oklahoma St. 58 174 95.1%
2015/10/31  18 Oklahoma St. 70 at  46 Texas Tech 53 207 64.4%
2015/11/07  12 TCU 34 at  18 Oklahoma St. 31 173 47.0%
2015/11/14  18 Oklahoma St. 41 at  73 Iowa St. 24 174 82.2%
2015/11/21   3 Baylor 41 at  18 Oklahoma St. 31 176 34.9%
2015/11/28  11 Oklahoma 35 at  18 Oklahoma St. 28 174 43.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-17.0
Most difficult game left: November 21, vs Baylor Bears, 34.9%


Absolute Phonies

LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.757 17 0.550 18 24.2 4 13.2 34 160.3 125
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12   5 LSU 21 at  22 Mississippi St. 19 174 35.2%
2015/09/19   8 Auburn 21 at   4 LSU 45 146 57.1%
2015/09/26   3 LSU 34 at  81 Syracuse 24 160 91.8%
2015/10/03 125 Eastern Michigan 22 at  11 LSU 44 147 98.3%
2015/10/10  53 South Carolina 24 at  19 LSU 45 157 71.2%
2015/10/17   3 Florida 28 at  15 LSU 35 150 59.9%
2015/10/24  50 Western Kentucky 20 at  17 LSU 48 175 70.3%
2015/11/07  17 LSU 21 at   1 Alabama 31 158 21.5%
2015/11/14  35 Arkansas 24 at  17 LSU 31 162 61.5%
2015/11/21  17 LSU 27 at   7 Mississippi 24 163 59.5%
2015/11/28  14 Texas A&M 24 at  17 LSU 34 167 53.8%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-23.6
Most difficult game left: November 7, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 21.5%


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