Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? — TFG

Odds as of games through 2015-11-01

Legitimate Title Contenders

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.905 3 0.642 23 25.6 4 10.9 9 177.2 33
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  85 Appalachian St. 10 at   6 Clemson 41 184 95.9%
2015/09/17   5 Clemson 20 at  30 Louisville 17 161 64.6%
2015/10/03  23 Notre Dame 22 at   6 Clemson 24 162 80.0%
2015/10/10  28 Georgia Tech 24 at   7 Clemson 43 158 78.7%
2015/10/17  63 Boston College 17 at   4 Clemson 34 171 92.6%
2015/10/24   6 Clemson 58 at  47 Miami-FL 0 179 71.8%
2015/10/31   2 Clemson 56 at  50 North Carolina St. 41 181 85.9%
2015/11/07  17 Florida St. 26 at   3 Clemson 32 170 75.5%
2015/11/14   3 Clemson 39 at  84 Syracuse 24 174 92.8%
2015/11/21 100 Wake Forest 18 at   3 Clemson 35 172 96.6%
2015/11/28   3 Clemson 37 at  74 South Carolina 23 169 92.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 62.7%
Most difficult game left: November 7, vs Florida State Seminoles, 75.5%


Iowa Hawkeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.787 18 0.508 61 20.5 32 12.6 20 165.2 94
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  43 Iowa 31 at 100 Iowa St. 17 159 74.0%
2015/09/19  42 Pittsburgh 24 at  44 Iowa 27 150 60.4%
2015/09/26 112 North Texas 16 at  40 Iowa 62 185 94.1%
2015/10/03  29 Iowa 10 at   3 Wisconsin 6 157 11.8%
2015/10/10  59 Illinois 20 at  29 Iowa 29 178 76.7%
2015/10/17  35 Iowa 40 at  42 Northwestern 10 177 41.1%
2015/10/31  74 Maryland 15 at  18 Iowa 31 155 89.0%
2015/11/07  18 Iowa 35 at  76 Indiana 27 177 80.5%
2015/11/14  67 Minnesota 23 at  18 Iowa 30 164 81.9%
2015/11/21  85 Purdue 24 at  18 Iowa 34 169 86.7%
2015/11/27  18 Iowa 32 at  47 Nebraska 29 170 67.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 38.6%
Most difficult game left: November 27, at Nebraska Cornhuskers, 67.6%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.921 2 0.500 64 26.3 2 10.5 5 165.9 91
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/07   3 Ohio St. 42 at  34 Virginia Tech 24 154 74.2%
2015/09/12  93 Hawaii 0 at   3 Ohio St. 38 171 97.2%
2015/09/19  76 Northern Ill. 13 at   2 Ohio St. 20 170 97.3%
2015/09/26  86 Western Michigan 12 at   2 Ohio St. 38 177 97.6%
2015/10/03   2 Ohio St. 34 at  69 Indiana 27 190 90.5%
2015/10/10  97 Maryland 28 at   4 Ohio St. 49 176 97.5%
2015/10/17  36 Penn State 10 at   6 Ohio St. 38 147 83.1%
2015/10/24   3 Ohio St. 49 at  80 Rutgers 7 149 90.0%
2015/11/07  67 Minnesota 21 at   2 Ohio St. 35 165 93.4%
2015/11/14   2 Ohio St. 35 at  82 Illinois 21 171 93.8%
2015/11/21  15 Michigan St. 27 at   2 Ohio St. 32 164 71.8%
2015/11/28   2 Ohio St. 28 at   4 Michigan 24 161 58.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 36.6%
Most difficult game left: November 28, at Michigan Wolverines, 58.2%


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.834 11 0.293 124 21.3 22 11.6 15 175.5 38
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  55 Houston 34 at  23 Louisville 31 193 16.5%
2015/09/26 101 Texas State 14 at  55 Houston 59 188 87.3%
2015/10/03  40 Houston 38 at  89 Tulsa 24 213 71.8%
2015/10/08 100 SMU 28 at  38 Houston 49 167 91.8%
2015/10/16  43 Houston 42 at 119 Tulane 7 174 91.6%
2015/10/24  31 Houston 59 at 104 UCF 10 167 85.7%
2015/10/31  80 Vanderbilt 0 at  25 Houston 34 164 89.2%
2015/11/07  40 Cincinnati 28 at  11 Houston 33 176 75.4%
2015/11/14  31 Memphis 29 at  11 Houston 33 180 71.0%
2015/11/21  11 Houston 30 at  90 Connecticut 19 168 91.2%
2015/11/27  35 Navy 26 at  11 Houston 30 166 68.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 33.5%
Most difficult game left: November 27, vs Navy Midshipmen, 68.7%


Long Shots

Baylor Bears
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.860 8 0.427 90 27.7 1 14.0 32 186.7 6
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04   7 Baylor 56 at 127 SMU 21 176 98.0%
2015/09/26  91 Rice 17 at   8 Baylor 70 179 95.5%
2015/10/03  39 Texas Tech 35 vs   5 Baylor 63 200 81.1%
2015/10/10   6 Baylor 66 at 121 Kansas 7 184 97.5%
2015/10/17  21 West Virginia 38 at   3 Baylor 62 199 81.0%
2015/10/24  81 Iowa St. 27 at   4 Baylor 45 201 95.9%
2015/11/05   8 Baylor 38 at  57 Kansas St. 28 174 80.5%
2015/11/14   6 Oklahoma 33 at   8 Baylor 35 180 50.8%
2015/11/21   8 Baylor 40 at  29 Oklahoma St. 33 184 71.1%
2015/11/27   8 Baylor 38 at  13 TCU 35 185 56.8%
2015/12/05  71 Texas 24 at   8 Baylor 37 177 88.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 14.5%
Most difficult game left: November 14, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 50.8%


Toledo Rockets
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.679 38 0.295 122 18.3 50 13.8 30 175.4 39
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  72 Toledo 16 vs  11 Arkansas 12 169 12.1%
2015/09/19  93 Iowa St. 23 at  60 Toledo 30 188 81.6%
2015/09/26  89 Arkansas St. 7 at  66 Toledo 37 186 75.7%
2015/10/03  55 Toledo 24 at  79 Ball St. 10 163 60.0%
2015/10/10 114 Kent St. 7 at  46 Toledo 38 177 93.6%
2015/10/17 120 Eastern Michigan 20 at  39 Toledo 63 177 97.0%
2015/10/24  32 Toledo 51 at 102 Massachusetts 35 215 84.8%
2015/11/03  66 Northern Ill. 27 at  38 Toledo 32 179 69.7%
2015/11/10  38 Toledo 27 at  62 Central Michigan 25 166 61.1%
2015/11/17  38 Toledo 30 at  37 Bowling Green 31 179 49.6%
2015/11/27  58 Western Michigan 29 at  38 Toledo 31 169 63.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 13.4%
Most difficult game left: November 17, at Bowling Green Falcons, 49.6%


Michigan State Spartans
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.820 15 0.551 46 22.5 14 12.7 21 163.2 104
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/04   5 Michigan St. 37 at  71 Western Michigan 24 170 84.8%
2015/09/12   4 Oregon 28 at   9 Michigan St. 31 176 57.9%
2015/09/19  68 Air Force 21 at  13 Michigan St. 35 148 91.5%
2015/09/26  79 Central Michigan 10 at  10 Michigan St. 30 144 93.6%
2015/10/03  92 Purdue 21 at  11 Michigan St. 24 153 95.2%
2015/10/10  19 Michigan St. 31 at  90 Rutgers 24 155 86.6%
2015/10/17  25 Michigan St. 27 at   1 Michigan 23 159 8.1%
2015/10/24  72 Indiana 26 at  13 Michigan St. 52 184 89.7%
2015/11/07  15 Michigan St. 33 at  47 Nebraska 29 169 68.1%
2015/11/14  73 Maryland 24 at  15 Michigan St. 34 169 87.8%
2015/11/21  15 Michigan St. 27 at   2 Ohio St. 32 164 28.2%
2015/11/28  26 Penn State 23 at  15 Michigan St. 27 162 63.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 10.6%
Most difficult game left: November 21, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 28.2%


TCU Horned Frogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.824 13 0.528 55 24.8 6 13.9 31 183.9 12
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03   2 TCU 23 at  46 Minnesota 17 191 78.0%
2015/09/19 106 SMU 37 at   3 TCU 56 179 98.6%
2015/09/26  16 TCU 55 at  39 Texas Tech 52 220 62.2%
2015/10/03  62 Texas 7 at  19 TCU 50 192 85.5%
2015/10/10  15 TCU 52 at  13 Kansas St. 45 165 39.8%
2015/10/17  10 TCU 45 at  76 Iowa St. 21 175 82.4%
2015/10/29  23 West Virginia 10 at  22 TCU 40 195 62.5%
2015/11/07  13 TCU 36 at  29 Oklahoma St. 33 183 60.8%
2015/11/14 127 Kansas 19 at  13 TCU 41 178 98.5%
2015/11/21  13 TCU 32 at   6 Oklahoma 33 179 39.6%
2015/11/27   8 Baylor 38 at  13 TCU 35 185 43.2%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 10.2%
Most difficult game left: November 21, at Oklahoma Sooners, 39.6%


Memphis Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.710 31 0.438 84 21.4 21 15.3 46 184.9 9
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  37 Memphis 55 at 109 Kansas 23 195 80.0%
2015/09/19  33 Memphis 44 at  78 Bowling Green 41 198 70.4%
2015/09/24  62 Cincinnati 46 at  45 Memphis 53 211 72.7%
2015/10/02  53 Memphis 24 at 108 South Florida 17 172 80.9%
2015/10/17  17 Mississippi 24 at  58 Memphis 37 199 37.4%
2015/10/23  43 Memphis 66 at  82 Tulsa 42 219 67.8%
2015/10/31 119 Tulane 13 at  33 Memphis 41 177 96.9%
2015/11/07  35 Navy 30 at  31 Memphis 31 170 56.4%
2015/11/14  31 Memphis 29 at  11 Houston 33 180 29.0%
2015/11/21  31 Memphis 27 at  27 Temple 28 173 49.0%
2015/11/28  98 SMU 26 at  31 Memphis 38 175 87.4%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-14.3
Most difficult game left: November 14, at Houston Cougars, 29.0%


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.831 12 0.547 52 24.8 5 13.6 28 159.2 118
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/12  12 LSU 21 at  19 Mississippi St. 19 174 40.1%
2015/09/19  18 Auburn 21 at  19 LSU 45 146 58.3%
2015/09/26   5 LSU 34 at  75 Syracuse 24 160 85.0%
2015/10/03 124 Eastern Michigan 22 at  14 LSU 44 147 98.5%
2015/10/10  62 South Carolina 24 at  20 LSU 45 157 82.5%
2015/10/17   7 Florida 28 at  20 LSU 35 150 45.1%
2015/10/24  55 Western Kentucky 20 at  16 LSU 48 175 82.3%
2015/11/07  12 LSU 27 at   1 Alabama 32 163 20.5%
2015/11/14  42 Arkansas 24 at  12 LSU 31 157 75.3%
2015/11/21  12 LSU 30 at  19 Mississippi 27 169 57.4%
2015/11/28  30 Texas A&M 29 at  12 LSU 33 167 66.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-16.9
Most difficult game left: November 7, at Alabama Crimson Tide, 20.5%


Absolute Phonies

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2015 0.715 29 0.475 70 22.1 16 15.6 52 182.9 17
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2015/09/03  61 Oklahoma St. 24 at  84 Central Michigan 13 165 48.5%
2015/09/19 103 UTSA 14 at  51 Oklahoma St. 69 179 90.6%
2015/09/26  29 Oklahoma St. 30 at  61 Texas 27 177 63.9%
2015/10/03  13 Kansas St. 34 at  34 Oklahoma St. 36 182 39.1%
2015/10/10  31 Oklahoma St. 33 at  18 West Virginia 26 215 28.7%
2015/10/24 120 Kansas 10 at  36 Oklahoma St. 58 174 97.0%
2015/10/31  29 Oklahoma St. 70 at  55 Texas Tech 53 207 56.1%
2015/11/07  13 TCU 36 at  29 Oklahoma St. 33 183 39.2%
2015/11/14  29 Oklahoma St. 33 at  69 Iowa St. 28 179 70.5%
2015/11/21   8 Baylor 40 at  29 Oklahoma St. 33 184 28.9%
2015/11/28   6 Oklahoma 35 at  29 Oklahoma St. 29 178 25.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-48.3
Most difficult game left: November 28, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 25.9%


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