Formula One: Elo Ratings, Post-Monaco Grand Prix

Apparently the gods of Monaco were looking out for Lewis Hamilton this year, after completely abandoning him last year. The Principality has always favored cars with strong downforce, even if their power units were lacking. For this reason we can assume that both Red Bull (for the first reason) and McLaren (for the latter) had this race circled on their calendars. Ricciardo put his car on pole, joining Vettel and Massa as only the third non-Mercedes driver since the start of the 2014 season to claim the front spot on the grid.

Monaco is notorious for favoring the pole-sitter. Over the last 30 years, if the pole-sitter isn't forced to retire (which they had to do in seven out of 30 tries) they go on to win 61% of the time. Barring any mistakes, Ricciardo was well-positioned to take the victory.

Pit stop mistake. Notice the lack of new tires.
Source: YouTube.com

Even with the botched pit stop, Ricciardo was on Hamilton's gearbox most of the rest of the way, and not even the looming threat of rain and mild sprinkles at the end of the race was enough to let him by.

Rank	+/-	Driver	Team	Rating	+/-
1	--	Rosberg	Mercedes	1649	-88
2	+2	Hamilton	Mercedes	1489	+73
3	-1	Vettel	Ferrari	1462	-5
4	+1	Ricciardo	Red Bull	1454	+108
5	-2	Raikkonen	Ferrari	1432	-29
6	--	Verstappen	Red Bull	1316	--
7	+2	Perez	Force India	1214	+93
8	--	Sainz Jr.	Toro Rosso	1150	+22
9	+4	Hulkenberg	Force India	1146	+128
10	-3	Bottas	Williams	1133	-162
11	--	Alonso	McLaren	1115	+69
12	--	Kvyat	Toro Rosso	1056	+33
13	-3	Massa	Williams	1013	-82
14	--	Button	McLaren	982	-7
15	--	Grosjean	Haas	869	-80
16	+1	Gutierrez	Haas	846	+55
17	-1	Magnussen	Renault	796	-22
18	--	Ericsson	Sauber	706	-16
19	--	Palmer	Renault	689	-32
20	--	Nasr	Sauber	637	--
21	--	Wehrlein	Manor	526	-35
22	--	Haryanto	Manor	478	-23

The big winner in all this was not Hamilton, but Force India. The mid-pack team not only managed to pick up a podium (well done, Perez) but Hulkenberg snuck by Rosberg on the final straight to snag sixth place. On the flip side of the coin, Williams' well-documented struggles with aero and downforce bit them big-time, as neither driver made it to Q3, and finished the race 10th and 11th.

Let's check in on our team ratings for the first time since the Russian Grand Prix.

Rank	Team	Avg. Rating
1	Mercedes	1569
2	Ferrari	1447
3	Red Bull	1385
4	Force India	1180
5	Toro Rosso	1103
6	Williams	1073
7	McLaren	1048
8	Haas	857
9	Renault	742
10	Sauber	671
11	Manor	502

Mercedes and Ferrari continue to run 1-2, but Williams has dropped nearly 200 points, allowing them to be overhauled by Red Bull, Toro Rosso, and Force India. Elo predicts that Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull will be jostling for the top six spots (well, Mercedes 1-2, with Ferrari and Red Bull fighting for the last podium spot), while a four-team mid-pack of Force India, Toro Rosso, Williams, and McLaren fight for the remaining points-paying positions. Haas has settled back down to earth after a lucky start to the season; look for Alonso, Sainz, and Hulkenberg to overtake Grosjean in the points standing during the European stretch. Further down the field, look for Renault and Sauber to battle out who's going to join Manor in getting bounced in Q1.