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| Not pictured: Hamilton in the lead. Source: Daily Mail |
Hamilton got onto the pole but made a horrible start, allowing Rosberg to grab the lead. Hamilton was able to charge back through the field and finish second, minimizing the damage of the poor start.
Updated ratings and analysis after the jump.
| Rank | +/- | Driver | Team | Rating | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | -- | Rosberg | Mercedes | 1757 | +20 |
| 2 | +1 | Hamilton | Mercedes | 1554 | +99 |
| 3 | -1 | Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1514 | -54 |
| 4 | -- | Vettel | Ferrari | 1501 | +63 |
| 5 | +1 | Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1418 | +72 |
| 6 | -1 | Verstappen | Red Bull | 1381 | -47 |
| 7 | +2 | Bottas | Williams | 1286 | +95 |
| 8 | -- | Perez | Force India | 1236 | +12 |
| 9 | -2 | Hulkenberg | Force India | 1228 | -61 |
| 10 | +1 | Massa | Williams | 1072 | +54 |
| 11 | -1 | Button | McLaren | 1027 | -86 |
| 12 | +3 | Grosjean | Haas | 986 | +45 |
| 13 | +1 | Gutierrez | Haas | 980 | +36 |
| 14 | -1 | Alonso | McLaren | 932 | -20 |
| 15 | -3 | Sainz Jr. | Toro Rosso | 902 | -92 |
| 16 | +4 | Wehrlein | Manor | 756 | +64 |
| 17 | -- | Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 750 | -10 |
| 18 | -2 | Magnussen | Renault | 699 | -111 |
| 19 | -- | Ocon | Manor | 692 | -42 |
| 20 | -2 | Palmer | Renault | 680 | -64 |
| 21 | -- | Nasr | Sauber | 604 | +9 |
| 22 | -- | Ericsson | Sauber | 548 | +20 |
Rosberg continues to expand his Elo rating lead over Hamilton, even though Hamilton has managed to take the lead in championship points. This combination of a dead-even championship points situation despite a big difference in Elo ratings is more reminiscent of 2014 than last year.
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| Elo ratings for Rosberg and Hamilton: 2014 - present |
What does Elo tell us? Let's take a look at these two drivers in terms of how they performed in qualifying and race day compared to their projected results based solely on Elo rating. A positive value indicates that a driver overperformed their projected result each race by that number of positions, whereas a negative value indicates that they underperformed each race by that number of positions.
| Year | Driver | Qualifying | Race |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Rosberg | 1.01 | -0.18 |
| Hamilton | -0.24 | 1.89 | |
| 2015 | Rosberg | 1.05 | -0.38 |
| Hamilton | 0.27 | 0.03 | |
| 2016 | Rosberg | 0.80 | -0.27 |
| Hamilton | -1.77 | 1.42 |
In 2014, Rosberg overperformed in qualifying by almost a full grid spot ahead of where Elo projected he would end up. This isn't surprising, considering that Rosberg snagged 11 pole positions that year. On Sundays, though, Rosberg underperformed slightly. Hamilton, however, was in the opposite position; Saturdays saw him (on average) a quarter grid spot per race behind where he was expected to start, whereas on Sundays he finished almost a full two places ahead of where Elo expected he would be.
The following season saw Hamilton reverse his qualifying fortunes by a half spot per race, and essentially hit his targets on Sundays. Rosberg continued to overperform on Saturdays and underperform on Sundays.
This year Rosberg has continued to be a steady presence for Mercedes, overperforming his qualifying expectations but underperforming on Sundays. Hamilton has been downright bipolar, although a good chunk of his nearly-two-grid-spot underperformance has been down to mechanical issues. His Sunday drives have nearly made up for it, though, approaching 2014 levels of overachieving.
With seven races left this year, Hamilton will just need to avoid any back-of-grid starts as he faced in China or Belgium and continue to overperform on Sundays. Rosberg will need to pick up the pace on Sundays and stop getting outperformed by his teammate when points are on the line. It sounds like a simple enough plan, but the German has struggled for the last few years to come to grips with his World Championship teammate. If he wants to grab his first title, he'll need to produce results on Sundays.
