Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? — TFG

Odds as of games through 2018-10-21

Legitimate Title Contenders

Clemson Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.950 1 0.589 34 24.2 5 8.0 1 167.8 80
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08   4 Clemson 28 at  42 Texas A&M 26 161 82.2%
2018/09/15  91 Georgia Southern 7 at  11 Clemson 38 154 96.9%
2018/09/22   5 Clemson 49 at  66 Georgia Tech 21 157 89.1%
2018/09/29  61 Syracuse 23 at   4 Clemson 27 176 93.6%
2018/10/06   4 Clemson 63 at  49 Wake Forest 3 182 83.2%
2018/10/20  14 North Carolina St. 7 at   2 Clemson 41 175 85.4%
2018/10/27   1 Clemson 30 at  52 Florida St. 20 168 89.6%
2018/11/03  87 Louisville 20 at   1 Clemson 37 168 97.3%
2018/11/10   1 Clemson 33 at  43 Boston College 22 171 90.6%
2018/11/17  38 Duke 20 at   1 Clemson 31 169 90.9%
2018/11/24  36 South Carolina 21 at   1 Clemson 32 169 90.6%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 65.0%
Most difficult game left: October 27, at Florida State Seminoles, 89.6%


Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.946 2 0.540 49 30.4 2 10.3 6 161.8 105
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  23 Louisville 14 vs   1 Alabama 51 167 89.3%
2018/09/08  75 Arkansas St. 7 at   1 Alabama 57 187 98.4%
2018/09/15   1 Alabama 62 at  39 Mississippi 7 164 91.1%
2018/09/22  20 Texas A&M 23 at   1 Alabama 45 164 95.5%
2018/09/29 119 LA-Lafayette 14 at   1 Alabama 56 144 99.6%
2018/10/06   1 Alabama 65 at 106 Arkansas 31 153 98.2%
2018/10/13  32 Missouri 10 at   1 Alabama 39 159 91.7%
2018/10/20   1 Alabama 58 at  73 Tennessee 21 157 93.1%
2018/11/03   2 Alabama 33 at   5 LSU 27 166 65.7%
2018/11/10  22 Mississippi St. 21 at   2 Alabama 33 160 87.6%
2018/11/24  16 Auburn 23 at   2 Alabama 34 167 83.5%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 48.1%
Most difficult game left: November 3, at LSU Tigers, 65.7%


Second-Tier Hopefuls

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.811 14 0.566 42 21.7 18 12.6 16 173.7 39
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  18 Michigan 17 at  10 Notre Dame 24 161 71.5%
2018/09/08 127 Ball St. 16 at  15 Notre Dame 24 195 99.2%
2018/09/15  43 Vanderbilt 17 at  21 Notre Dame 22 170 79.4%
2018/09/22  23 Notre Dame 56 at  41 Wake Forest 27 197 55.4%
2018/09/29  13 Stanford 17 at  19 Notre Dame 38 169 53.9%
2018/10/06  13 Notre Dame 45 at  24 Virginia Tech 23 180 54.5%
2018/10/13  77 Pittsburgh 14 at  13 Notre Dame 19 153 91.1%
2018/10/27  14 Notre Dame 35 vs  91 Navy 24 162 89.3%
2018/11/03  14 Notre Dame 31 at  54 Northwestern 25 175 74.3%
2018/11/10  52 Florida St. 23 at  14 Notre Dame 31 171 79.5%
2018/11/17  59 Syracuse 29 vs  14 Notre Dame 36 180 79.2%
2018/11/24  14 Notre Dame 32 at  44 USC 27 173 72.7%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 30.4%
Most difficult game left: November 24, at USC Trojans, 72.7%


UCF Knights
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.766 20 0.360 110 22.0 14 14.1 35 181.4 14
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/08/30  15 UCF 56 at 114 Connecticut 17 177 93.1%
2018/09/21  61 FL-Atlantic 36 at  24 UCF 56 187 82.4%
2018/09/29  83 Pittsburgh 14 at  26 UCF 45 166 88.3%
2018/10/06  91 SMU 20 at  23 UCF 48 187 90.6%
2018/10/13  18 UCF 31 at  64 Memphis 30 181 69.2%
2018/10/20  23 UCF 37 at 113 East Carolina 10 204 86.8%
2018/11/01  28 Temple 29 at  20 UCF 32 179 59.8%
2018/11/10  91 Navy 25 at  20 UCF 37 166 88.4%
2018/11/17  47 Cincinnati 26 at  20 UCF 31 177 68.5%
2018/11/23  20 UCF 36 at  72 South Florida 28 182 79.1%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 28.6%
Most difficult game left: November 1, vs Temple Owls, 59.8%


What are YOU doing here??

South Florida Bulls
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.466 72 0.278 130 17.5 57 18.4 77 182.7 8
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08  46 Georgia Tech 38 at  38 South Florida 49 175 67.9%
2018/09/15  40 South Florida 25 vs 115 Illinois 19 198 90.7%
2018/09/22  80 East Carolina 13 at  48 South Florida 20 175 78.2%
2018/10/06  38 South Florida 58 at 116 Massachusetts 42 187 84.5%
2018/10/12  45 South Florida 25 at  95 Tulsa 24 193 70.7%
2018/10/20 126 Connecticut 30 at  55 South Florida 38 166 95.9%
2018/10/27  72 South Florida 32 at  50 Houston 38 186 28.2%
2018/11/03  94 Tulane 27 at  72 South Florida 31 174 68.5%
2018/11/10  72 South Florida 26 at  47 Cincinnati 30 178 32.5%
2018/11/17  72 South Florida 27 at  28 Temple 33 179 24.8%
2018/11/23  20 UCF 36 at  72 South Florida 28 182 20.9%


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-307.3
Most difficult game left: November 23, vs UCF Knights, 20.9%



One-Loss Hopefuls
Odds as of games through 2018-10-21

Michigan Wolverines
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.909 3 0.592 32 23.6 8 9.9 3 155.2 127
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  18 Michigan 17 at  10 Notre Dame 24 161 28.5%
2018/09/08  76 Western Michigan 3 at  18 Michigan 49 152 90.3%
2018/09/15  98 SMU 20 at  13 Michigan 45 152 96.8%
2018/09/22  68 Nebraska 10 at  17 Michigan 56 164 89.8%
2018/09/29   8 Michigan 20 at  52 Northwestern 17 157 78.9%
2018/10/06  56 Maryland 21 at  10 Michigan 42 146 88.2%
2018/10/13   7 Wisconsin 13 at   6 Michigan 38 140 59.9%
2018/10/20   3 Michigan 21 at  35 Michigan St. 7 161 74.8%
2018/11/03   8 Penn State 28 at   3 Michigan 30 167 66.7%
2018/11/10   3 Michigan 35 at 128 Rutgers 15 158 98.9%
2018/11/17  55 Indiana 22 at   3 Michigan 33 166 89.1%
2018/11/24   3 Michigan 29 at   9 Ohio St. 28 166 62.6%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 36.8%
Most difficult game left: November 24, at Ohio State Buckeyes, 62.6%


Oklahoma Sooners
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.857 7 0.620 19 33.9 1 17.3 63 170.3 67
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  30 FL-Atlantic 14 at   9 Oklahoma 63 165 84.4%
2018/09/08  73 UCLA 21 at   5 Oklahoma 49 176 96.1%
2018/09/15   7 Oklahoma 37 at  34 Iowa St. 27 156 71.4%
2018/09/22  47 Army 21 at  12 Oklahoma 28 145 88.5%
2018/09/29  49 Baylor 33 at  10 Oklahoma 66 188 87.1%
2018/10/06  21 Texas 48 vs  12 Oklahoma 45 163 64.8%
2018/10/20   9 Oklahoma 52 at  25 TCU 27 157 56.3%
2018/10/27  68 Kansas St. 27 at   7 Oklahoma 44 167 91.2%
2018/11/03   7 Oklahoma 44 at  40 Texas Tech 34 181 73.5%
2018/11/10  35 Oklahoma St. 35 at   7 Oklahoma 47 176 78.7%
2018/11/17 107 Kansas 26 at   7 Oklahoma 46 170 95.0%
2018/11/23   7 Oklahoma 42 at  29 West Virginia 33 170 71.8%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 36.0%
Most difficult game left: November 23, at West Virginia Mountaineers, 71.8%


Georgia Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.900 4 0.660 10 25.9 3 11.3 10 159.1 113
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08   3 Georgia 41 at  32 South Carolina 17 162 81.4%
2018/09/15 105 Middle Tenn. 7 at   2 Georgia 49 147 99.0%
2018/09/22   2 Georgia 43 at  33 Missouri 29 176 84.3%
2018/09/29  80 Tennessee 12 at   2 Georgia 38 146 96.8%
2018/10/06  57 Vanderbilt 13 at   3 Georgia 41 155 93.6%
2018/10/13   3 Georgia 16 at  14 LSU 36 171 64.6%
2018/10/27  17 Florida 26 vs   4 Georgia 31 162 72.4%
2018/11/03   4 Georgia 29 at  26 Kentucky 23 158 73.2%
2018/11/10  16 Auburn 23 at   4 Georgia 31 166 75.7%
2018/11/17 108 Massachusetts 23 at   4 Georgia 43 167 96.7%
2018/11/24  57 Georgia Tech 26 at   4 Georgia 36 159 88.4%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 34.3%
Most difficult game left: October 27, vs Florida Gators, 72.4%


North Carolina State Wolfpack
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.751 21 0.609 24 21.2 23 14.0 32 165.9 88
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08 115 Georgia State 7 at  25 North Carolina St. 41 158 95.0%
2018/09/22  22 North Carolina St. 37 at  85 Marshall 20 168 79.7%
2018/09/29  56 Virginia 21 at  17 North Carolina St. 35 159 83.5%
2018/10/06  50 Boston College 23 at  15 North Carolina St. 28 158 83.2%
2018/10/20  14 North Carolina St. 7 at   2 Clemson 41 175 14.6%
2018/10/27  21 North Carolina St. 34 at  59 Syracuse 31 176 62.0%
2018/11/03  52 Florida St. 24 at  21 North Carolina St. 29 167 73.3%
2018/11/08  89 Wake Forest 26 at  21 North Carolina St. 37 178 85.8%
2018/11/17  21 North Carolina St. 34 at  87 Louisville 25 167 83.1%
2018/11/24  21 North Carolina St. 36 at 103 North Carolina 24 170 89.2%
2018/12/01 112 East Carolina 22 at  21 North Carolina St. 35 172 91.6%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 26.5%
Most difficult game left: October 27, at Syracuse Orange, 62.0%


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.885 5 0.713 3 21.9 15 10.2 5 171.1 58
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/02  21 Miami-FL 17 vs  19 LSU 33 165 51.0%
2018/09/15  17 LSU 22 at   6 Auburn 21 174 21.3%
2018/09/22  83 LA Tech 21 at  13 LSU 38 179 94.2%
2018/09/29  64 Mississippi 16 at  12 LSU 45 175 89.8%
2018/10/06   9 LSU 19 at  28 Florida 27 182 63.0%
2018/10/13   3 Georgia 16 at  14 LSU 36 171 35.4%
2018/10/20  15 Mississippi St. 3 at   8 LSU 19 159 72.3%
2018/11/03   2 Alabama 33 at   5 LSU 27 166 34.3%
2018/11/10   5 LSU 33 at  79 Arkansas 23 167 89.8%
2018/11/17 131 Rice 17 at   5 LSU 41 163 99.0%
2018/11/24   5 LSU 30 at  19 Texas A&M 26 169 69.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 21.3%
Most difficult game left: November 3, vs Alabama Crimson Tide, 34.3%


Ohio State Buckeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.856 9 0.527 57 24.0 6 12.3 13 177.1 28
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01 121 Oregon St. 31 at   4 Ohio St. 77 181 99.2%
2018/09/08 105 Rutgers 3 at   8 Ohio St. 52 166 98.0%
2018/09/15   3 Ohio St. 40 vs  14 TCU 28 187 75.2%
2018/09/22  92 Tulane 6 at   3 Ohio St. 49 161 97.7%
2018/09/29   3 Ohio St. 27 at   7 Penn State 26 190 46.6%
2018/10/06  54 Indiana 26 at   2 Ohio St. 49 188 93.4%
2018/10/13  41 Minnesota 14 at   4 Ohio St. 30 152 90.3%
2018/10/20   4 Ohio St. 20 at  36 Purdue 49 203 73.8%
2018/11/03  70 Nebraska 27 at   9 Ohio St. 39 178 88.8%
2018/11/10   9 Ohio St. 31 at  42 Michigan St. 24 170 74.5%
2018/11/17   9 Ohio St. 34 at  62 Maryland 24 169 85.1%
2018/11/24   3 Michigan 29 at   9 Ohio St. 28 166 37.4%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 21.1%
Most difficult game left: November 24, vs Michigan Wolverines, 37.4%


Iowa Hawkeyes
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.879 6 0.605 25 21.1 25 10.0 4 157.8 121
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  63 Northern Ill. 7 at  11 Iowa 33 163 89.3%
2018/09/08  24 Iowa St. 3 at  11 Iowa 13 147 80.3%
2018/09/22   6 Wisconsin 28 at   9 Iowa 17 143 59.1%
2018/10/06  11 Iowa 48 at  41 Minnesota 31 172 72.5%
2018/10/13  12 Iowa 42 at  54 Indiana 16 159 71.4%
2018/10/20  48 Maryland 0 at  10 Iowa 23 133 85.4%
2018/10/27   6 Iowa 27 at   8 Penn State 30 168 42.2%
2018/11/03   6 Iowa 27 at  18 Purdue 25 165 64.2%
2018/11/10  54 Northwestern 21 at   6 Iowa 30 167 87.6%
2018/11/17   6 Iowa 34 at 114 Illinois 18 164 96.6%
2018/11/23  70 Nebraska 24 at   6 Iowa 34 168 88.9%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 20.4%
Most difficult game left: October 27, at Penn State Nittany Lions, 42.2%


Texas Longhorns
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.751 23 0.603 27 19.5 38 12.9 18 179.9 16
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  36 Texas 29 vs 102 Maryland 34 192 82.5%
2018/09/08  90 Tulsa 21 at  52 Texas 28 165 82.9%
2018/09/15  27 USC 14 at  41 Texas 37 176 53.7%
2018/09/22  16 TCU 16 at  32 Texas 31 175 42.8%
2018/09/29  18 Texas 19 at  72 Kansas St. 14 153 73.7%
2018/10/06  21 Texas 48 vs  12 Oklahoma 45 163 35.2%
2018/10/13  59 Baylor 17 at  17 Texas 23 186 82.6%
2018/10/27  23 Texas 32 at  35 Oklahoma St. 34 181 48.3%
2018/11/03  29 West Virginia 29 at  23 Texas 31 175 60.5%
2018/11/10  23 Texas 32 at  40 Texas Tech 31 185 58.2%
2018/11/17  33 Iowa St. 25 at  23 Texas 27 170 58.4%
2018/11/23  23 Texas 35 at 107 Kansas 22 175 90.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-11.1
Most difficult game left: October 27, at Oklahoma State Cowboys, 48.3%


Florida Gators
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.774 17 0.640 16 20.8 30 13.1 21 164.9 90
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/08  57 Kentucky 27 at  61 Florida 16 150 62.7%
2018/09/15  83 Colorado St. 10 at  69 Florida 48 155 72.6%
2018/09/22  45 Florida 47 at  70 Tennessee 21 163 56.0%
2018/09/29  33 Florida 13 at  25 Mississippi St. 6 148 30.3%
2018/10/06   9 LSU 19 at  28 Florida 27 182 37.0%
2018/10/13  21 Florida 37 at  57 Vanderbilt 27 177 64.6%
2018/10/27  17 Florida 26 vs   4 Georgia 31 162 27.6%
2018/11/03  31 Missouri 30 at  17 Florida 32 174 64.6%
2018/11/10  36 South Carolina 25 at  17 Florida 29 168 68.0%
2018/11/24  17 Florida 28 at  52 Florida St. 23 166 72.2%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-11.4
Most difficult game left: October 27, vs Georgia Bulldogs, 27.6%


Kentucky Wildcats
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.733 26 0.618 21 17.7 53 12.1 12 157.9 120
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  92 Central Michigan 20 at  70 Kentucky 35 167 73.5%
2018/09/08  57 Kentucky 27 at  61 Florida 16 150 37.3%
2018/09/22  14 Mississippi St. 7 at  52 Kentucky 28 152 24.9%
2018/09/29  21 South Carolina 10 at  30 Kentucky 24 162 51.7%
2018/10/06  22 Kentucky 14 at  26 Texas A&M 20 156 45.2%
2018/10/20  64 Vanderbilt 7 at  26 Kentucky 14 139 80.9%
2018/10/27  26 Kentucky 27 at  31 Missouri 30 170 42.4%
2018/11/03   4 Georgia 29 at  26 Kentucky 23 158 26.8%
2018/11/10  26 Kentucky 28 at  69 Tennessee 24 160 70.8%
2018/11/17  92 Middle Tenn. 21 at  26 Kentucky 28 164 84.7%
2018/11/24  26 Kentucky 30 at  87 Louisville 23 163 81.7%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-18.0
Most difficult game left: November 3, vs Georgia Bulldogs, 26.8%


Washington State Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.688 32 0.446 79 22.2 10 16.5 57 170.3 66
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  45 Washington St. 41 at  37 Wyoming 19 172 31.6%
2018/09/08 125 SJSU 0 at  21 Washington St. 31 165 98.8%
2018/09/21  19 Washington St. 36 at  49 USC 39 166 62.0%
2018/09/29  38 Utah 24 at  29 Washington St. 28 170 68.2%
2018/10/06  29 Washington St. 56 at 109 Oregon St. 37 167 85.1%
2018/10/20  53 Oregon 20 at  34 Washington St. 34 165 70.2%
2018/10/27  32 Washington St. 28 at  25 Stanford 32 164 32.5%
2018/11/03  88 California 25 at  32 Washington St. 33 171 81.5%
2018/11/10  32 Washington St. 31 at  48 Colorado 29 171 55.4%
2018/11/17  85 Arizona 28 at  32 Washington St. 35 174 76.2%
2018/11/23  10 Washington 31 at  32 Washington St. 27 164 28.8%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-31.1
Most difficult game left: November 23, vs Washington Huskies, 28.8%


West Virginia Mountaineers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2018 0.703 29 0.544 47 21.4 22 15.5 45 171.5 54
Date Away Team       Home Team Plays Odds
2018/09/01  58 West Virginia 40 vs 103 Tennessee 14 148 75.6%
2018/09/22  46 Kansas St. 6 at  26 West Virginia 35 153 73.0%
2018/09/29  16 West Virginia 42 at  40 Texas Tech 34 196 57.9%
2018/10/06  95 Kansas 22 at  19 West Virginia 38 163 92.3%
2018/10/13  19 West Virginia 14 at  40 Iowa St. 30 145 54.1%
2018/10/25  61 Baylor 28 at  29 West Virginia 36 176 78.7%
2018/11/03  29 West Virginia 29 at  23 Texas 31 175 39.5%
2018/11/10  34 TCU 27 at  29 West Virginia 30 171 57.5%
2018/11/17  29 West Virginia 35 at  35 Oklahoma St. 34 176 54.9%
2018/11/23   7 Oklahoma 42 at  29 West Virginia 33 170 28.2%


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-36.1
Most difficult game left: November 23, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 28.2%


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